Member Info for Hydr31

£3.87/60eps = pe 6.45.

That better..... still looks cheap

I agree with jungla. Assuming £200 million cash in back.

200/70= £2.85

£6.72 share price - £2.85 = £3.87 share price for future earnings

£3.87/ 52eps = forward looking pe of 7.4.

Looks low and could easily see that double just on sentiment.

Off course am I daring to be optimistic by deducting the cash that they need to spend in order to become the company producing £40million per annum profits.

But then you have to consider the cash valuation which hopefully provides a bottom on how low this can go without triggering buying. At some point your almost getting the company and it’s potential for nothing

Thanks for the corrections guys, you get the idea. Looks good value medium term, potentially great value long term

Agree, personally I think our oversees sales are much larger than we think and that a good portion of the U.K. revenues are in H1 this year. All the evidence shows how we are growing a massive infrastructure of routes to market abroad. Unfortunately we may have to wait for these results before the market can start taking a more optimistic view. That’s why I’m invested and whilst I can try and understand the current valuation, I think it’s pessimistic and it can’t go much lower without being undervalued even on pessimistic terms.

You can value this in so many different ways.

Let’s be pessimistic. Ignore money in the bank and value this based on a future generation of £40 million a year ebitda.

40/76 million shares = 52 p earnings

So that would put us on a current pe of 12 which is probably fair value for a diagnostic company trading between 10-20 pe. So being pessimistic we could expand the pe to 20 and see £10.20 per share.

Being optimistic, add on aquisitions, growth, a pe north of 20..... valuation could be well north of £15 but without some developments how can the market value it .

It still wouldn’t resolve the problem that the market doesn’t currently know how to value Novacyt. A buyback would reduce shares in issue so current shareholders would have a larger share of the future profits but what are the future profits..... this is what we need clarity on as I would fear a buyback would not help us as at the moment that number is fictitious. I’d rather see the money getting spent on earnings enhancing aquisitions where by we can actually place a valuation on it.

At least we are all agreed that there is a bottom here and then it’s onwards and upwards

Just dropped my daughter back at school, was a bit shocked to be honest, I’d forgotten how busy it is when it’s full. Kids all mingling and jumping in each other and loads of parents catching up with no masks on. You’d think the pandemic was over. Yet the majority of people there won’t have been called for vaccines yet

You mean we are waiting impatiently?!

And I believe 60 million is just arrivals ..... not departures too.?

Yes I have recently sold out of quite a few holdings on the basis that they have had to raise cash through placing to survive the pandemic. The travel and tourism sector is littered with them and they are flying high on sentiment yet shareholders have been significantly diluted. BOO has put in a sterling performance through the pandemic and is pretty much flat on previous year. It’s solid. Looking forward to £5 in the summer

Thanks exmex. So in 2020 air travel was down 76%.

Normal arrivals into the U.K. are around 300million a year and I’m assuming there will be a similar number of departures. So 600 million tests if we are to be able to get back to normal under a testing regime. That’s a £4.8 billion pound market in the U.K. alone. I’d say there’s some growth to come!! How long will we need airport testing for ? When will the world be vaccinated?

I noticed we are working with at least one of the companies providing tests out of Manchester. What do we think that market is going to be worth. In 2019 30 million passengers ( departures and arrivals) travelled through Manchester alone. At £8 a test that’s £240million a year through one airport. I this might be a big growth driver for Novacyt... until the world is vaccinated tests will be mandotary? No airports flying yet so this is all too come

I’m seeing between £4 and £6 by October. Likelihood that we see some buying before results like last year and then based on good forward looking statements we might then see it go on a run for £5 in summer. Then I’m sure Pedro and TCM will turn up to remind us off why we all hold.

Why do they bother they have been called out for exactly what they are and in the medium term, it just justifies my conviction that we will see all time highs soon. They are desperate to get in at a decent price.

Especially once we rebound off the lower trend line and all the so called haters close their shorts and jump back on for the ride up to £4 plus

Because he is buying boo at the lowest price he can.... the only reason he is here on a weekend rubbishing a stock. I think purple bricks is a sucker stock, I don’t sit on the bb rubbishing it all weekend. TCM, Pedro and a few other trolls sit on here and like to have the last word. They keep on replying or bringing negative threads to the top as they have an alternative motive.

If there were any truth too it we would have banned them in the U.K. first

Share price only rose 50% after the slavery allegations.... mud sticks.