Member Info for Hydr31

Frustrating watching it drop but it’s not quite at the 38% yet. (About £4.60) so this just looks like a normal pull back after last fridays huge rise. (Traders and a few taking profit) It Will form a new base and hopefully build from there. Stocks don’t go up in a straight line

Even if there is no positive earnings surprise and BOO just deliver what’s expected, In reality it can’t really drop without making it look really good value.

Estimating 10.7 eps by 2022 fy is >100% growth over two years. Even on a meagre pe of 35 that’s £3.74 so 12% higher than current SP. More realistically I think BOO will trade between pe 50-70. (£5.35 - £7-54) within a year. So there’s at least 50% upside potentially 100% all in one year. So if it does drop on good results, I’ll be surprised and I’ll also be happy to buy.

Just a bit of profit taking. If you invested at the bottom you’ve made 40% in a few days. Not bad. There doesn’t look to be an appetite to sell for less than £5 though so this should form a new base and then take out £6 in my opinion. There’s going to be some sellers all the way up. Lots of people caught out by the drop but then on the other hand the negative news flow is out of the way and hopefully we should start hearing positive news again so hopefully they hang onto their golden tickets!!!

A little reminder at £8 we were pricing in DCSH 100 million extension which then imploded. The ‘blue sky valuation’ of £36 was if we had won phase 2 with the government which doesn’t look needed now. So those are off the table. The positives are that there are lots of other revenue streams ( some of them could be rather juicy) that were not even on the radar at that point. Airport testing, variplex might see bigger sales this winter if flu makes a return, expansion into another country, mergers. Yes, it’s all jam tomorrow but that’s the challenge to the company, get us some jam today and we might be able to start seeing the higher valuations sooner rather than later. For now I’d be happy with a slow uptick to £6 whilst we sort out the dispute and then let us start seeing the jam today please Graham!!

Airlineboy - much respect to that poster. Nerves of steel.

Milnrow- yes we know that the company was estimating coronavirus sales to drop off In the second half of this year.
When the company release a statement to say otherwise I’ll be pleasantly surprised but all the broker forecasts plan for this. For me the valuation of Ncyt is about what sort of company will be left behind after Covid.

40 million profit a year /70 million shares x pe of 10-20
Is a share price of £6-11

That’s my bottom valuation..... if they start doing the right things and building out future revenues beyond Covid then that valuation can fly higher...

Mburns-thankyou. it is much easier said than done. I wish I had followed that strategy and got out at £10 after the double top but I got caught up in it all.

I don’t mind holding good companies for long providing I can afford to double down. But with Ncyt that was impossible as it had grown so big. There was a holder who posted her portfolio on Twitter ( won’t name names ) but I was surprised as their holding in Ncyt was huge (100kplus)....not the kind of cash that most can double down on. I would not have been holding that kind of cash through a drop like that. (I’d be paying of my mortgage) Stop loss would have been on and it would have been well and firmly triggered. But each to their own.

Mac.... rephrase.... keep delivering. Salesman’s mantra.... you are only as good as your last sale.

We know sales are dropping off, if we don’t want sales price to rerate down as it does, then we need to start replacing the Covid revenue with stable and growing revenue streams. It’s all to play for and from today’s RNS it’s sounds like we are capitalising on coronavirus. I’d like to see some progress into other growth avenues though. Oncology for example.

No I’m not saintsmith.

The stock had been in a stage 4 drop up until today and the company had only released very bearish news. I said I would buy back in when sentiment shifted and I jumped back in at 8 on the bell. I had a strategy and I executed, protected my capital by selling out and got back in 50p lower. Happy days. If Graham had drip fed some of this news a week ago perhaps it would have stopped the rot sooner but you can’t blame me for wanting to protect capital. My holding was too large for me to double down so it was either take the loss on the chin or sell out and try get back in lower if the company showed me some confidence, which they have.

To be absolutely honest I think we have a big challenge ahead of us. £6-8 is now on the cards but I could see it selling off with no news. if we want £15plus then the company need to start delivering and communicating on the non DCSH growth. Contracts, airports, mergers and acquisitions

I was looking at fit to fly this yesterday....Did someone have evidence this is our PCR? Also noticed they are offering an LFT as some destinations require it. I wonder? A nice big contract with the airlines could certainly turn the tide and get £15 back on the table. Great move getting an LFT approved. All based covered.

That’s more like it. Bought my holding back this morning. I might add saved myself a packet by getting out for the worst of the decline. I would have preferred he drip feed the news too us but they are obviously very busy in the innovation department.

It’s also plausible that GM doesn’t have anything good to report.

He hasn’t been silent as people keep saying. We’ve had 2 RNS in less than a week. He’s been telling us news but nobody seems to want to listen to that.... apart from those that are selling up that is.

Fair point but I’m already 70p better off for being on the side. Even if I end up back in at the same level I sold but in a stock with positive sentiment that’s announced a m and a and sorted the aquisitions that’s better than being in at £3.70 and not knowing whether it’s going to drop through the floor again tomorrow.

I think there is probably a lot of holders who were in early and have held all the way up to £12 and seen their holding multi bag. My portfolio had become totally exposed to Novacyt because of the massive gain and I’d topped up on the way up.

My usual tactic is to just hold and providing I still see value in the stock add on weakness (double down) with the little cash I can afford on a monthly basis but with Novacyt I wasn’t in a position to ‘double down’ as my holding had become too big.

So the tactic had to be sell, avoid loss and wait for sentiment to change and redeploy some elsewhere which is what I’ve done and what I should have done at £12.

When stocks are dropping I’ve learnt you should never do nothing. Sell, wait for the bottom and double down but don’t just sit there and watch your holding disintegrate. Make a decision, get a strategy to deal with it and execute.

Even at 1 % though it’s not a lot is it to be materially effecting the price. Surely this is just people selling?

Especially when you consider the amount of times the rampers have said they are ‘topping up’ . Would have thought the price would be flying up!! Must have an endless stash of cash!!

I might add as well, your going on about hating shorters but I checked short tracker. Com and I can’t see any major short % on Novacyt.

Are you sure it’s being shorted? I think given the news flow more investors are just selling at the moment compared to those buying.

Saint smith, I’m still around. Just been busy with the day job. I almost repurchased some today actually but then had second thoughts. I don’t do shorting, but I can read a chart and as I have been saying since £4,50 this is a precarious time to buy. Safer to stick on the sidelines, especially if you have a lot of capital at risk.

The stock is in a down trend and the stock needs to break out of that before it goes higher otherwise it can just keep slipping south. Maybe not an issue if you have bought low and have conviction but if you have a lot invested or have already lost half of it.... yikes

Great day yesterday but it was driven by traders who jumped out again. Reality is this will find the level where there are no more sellers and then it can start rebuilding. Unfortunately with uncertainty it opens the door to speculation. And in the same way that rampers over speculate the stock, derampers will over despeculate the stock. So the selling stops when there isn’t a reason to sell anymore. Let’s see if it retests the previous low again tomorrow. If it bounces back off it would be a good sign it’s found the bottom.

Tactical!!! Not recto

It can jambo. They could announce we are in breach of the contract and are having to pay back £x amount which materially affects cash. Which i think is how most are currently valuing the stock. Right now all we know is that DHSC have withheld payment on an undisclosed amount, which means our cash flow is already affected. Are they going to downgrade the end of year results. It’s all recto all of course. We want to do business with the DCSH. They put us on a framework with 141 other companies, withhold cash and now have us over a barrel. How much do we want to annoy them.

Frustrating. I thought the point of the profit warning might have been to get all the bad news out there so we could reset and start building again but we are to continue with this hanging over the stock for another two months. Valuation of the is stock was hard but it’s blooming impossible when you just don’t know details of the potential DCSH and where the revenues are going to end up being. They could have at least guided us to what the dispute was over and what worst case senario looked like.