Member Info for Hydr31

It’s a traders paradise now. Every time it goes low they dive in sucking in a few more PI’s with them and then take their scalp. We need the downward trend to break.

So hard to not buy at these levels when you have held it at £12. I have to keep reminding myself it’s still in stage 4, it can keep sliding as despair takes over and shorters take advantage, if you’re trapped in I feel for you, they will test your resolve. Fundamentals will shine through eventually though and sentiment will turn, so wait for the bottom to confirm and double down.

Bluelight- I’ve got to say I was a bit disappointed with rest of world sales. If you think back to the end of year announcements we were all expecting bigger numbers and I thought that perhaps nhs revenues must have been pushed into this year and that overseas revenues were higher. They weren’t. I’ve plotted the nhs spend out and it looks like we had a run rate of about £10 million a month in the last 6 months of FY 20. We’ve then done £12 million a month in quarter 1 . So an increase of about 20%. My concern is that these revenues are coronavirus revenue so will also be due to drop off? But then perhaps we sign up more coronavirus revenues? But then I’m looking at the achievement of 20% sales growth at the height of a pandemic and asking the question, is that good? Shouldn’t we have done better than that?

Troublesome, arguably there is fear because of the uncertainty the company has created.

I don’t think it’s negative and ‘deramping’ to say so, that’s just honest.

Likewise there is much to look forward too and they do say speculate too accumulate, fear is your friend ect.

But I don’t think we should just blindly ignore negatives, but talk, discuss, be aware, learn.

Harchris, agreed it depends what we buy. It-is looked like a great piece of business. But our next investment ideally won’t be part of our current supply chain. I get the feeling the sector is pretty hot in general now too so maybe they are holding off as to try and avoid paying over the odds. A lot of the take overs we’ve heard about have been in the region of ten times profit.... which is expensive.

Blue light I was just making the point that this share has been extremely hard to value. When sentiment has been positive I could see how porky derived his £54 and now sentiment is low I can also see potential for negative valuations too. But one good thing to remember is shorters can only ever make 100% but going in long there is no ceiling. So time will win out and shorters will close or burn!!

Bluelight with regards to your valuation. If you pretend for a minute that you are a shorter and you don’t like the stock you can do a different calculation that’s much worse. Let’s say your right and we have 130 now with another 90 or so to be delivered this year. What can approximately 200 million buy you? Maybe a 20 million revenue business? That’s 28eps. Apply a pe of let’s say 10 and that’s a share price of £2.80. At this point you have spent your cash acquiring the business and if it’s a good growth business then maybe we double the pe to 20 £5.60 a share.

Yes if your positive on the stock you’ll say that’s ridiculous and I understand ( there are lots of positives for us to be excited about) but without any visibility on sales all we know is that earnings are declining, vaccines deploying, sentiment is low. This is why I will wait for macd to confirm sentiment has changed, before then we are in a downtrend and the market likes to test ones resolve beyond what is reasonable.

Check out the charts for the previous three major peaks and you’ll see when the macd on the 1 day crosses, the momentum shifts and the share price goes on its run.

I’m holding out for the 1 day MACD to cross. There is a lot of ramping going on at the moment which just creates disappointment amongst the shareholders when they invest and it doesn’t come to fruition. GGG was saying £70 a share and then sells out just before a profit warning and less than a week later you have Tay and porky saying that we’ve just won a 3 billion contract!! When what’s actually happened is we have lost our exclusive contract of supply and are now having to compete with 141 other companies. The RNS also said they have enough supply for the rest of the year so it’s not likely to see further revenues from NHS this year. That’s not being negative. That is what we have been told.

I want to be sure momentum has changed back. At the moment it’s in a downtrend and it could easily slide further especially if shorters start ramping the potential worst case scenarios. I don’t think this will happen till we get clarity on some sales figures beyond nhs contracts.

Cheers spicey. You must have got the same alert then

Don’t agree on renting. I’ve worked for cash cow companies that got bought out by banks and asset stripped. Ultimately it increases costs and leaves you uncompetitive. Better to own your properties if you can.

So looks like it’s Tuesday for results. My charts show support at 340p and resistance at 358p. Hopefully should see some Fomo buying tomorrow. I know we have seen sell offs previously at results but it’s got nowhere to go without breaking the long term support line and it wouldn’t do this without a material negative change to the fundamentals. Slavery, esg, fleas, none of these things changed the fundamentals and none of them broke the lower trend line. In my view much more likely that sales figures are going to be great with good forward looking statements and this can break out and take off.

Dan it’s just a sign of their ambition if you ask me. They are gearing up and setting the foundations for a £4Billion sales company. It wasn’t that long ago they were doing this for £2 Billion. So they know what they are doing, they’ve done it before.

Intriguing. Is the 3 billion spend over 4 years or two, not clear. I’m assuming it’s not equally split as that would only be £5million a year to each company.

So there’s going to be some winners and losers out of these company’s on the framework.

Novacyt should be well positioned to compete with their 300 machines but there is no guarantees. Wish we had some feedback on uptake of them. If orders are now to be placed by individual users within the dcsh we may see multiple smaller volume orders being placed too rather than bulk. Hope that doesn’t mean they wont have to RNS them.

Was that you being positive Pedro? Well the warehouse is great news as this will support the move up to £4 billion in sales. Shows ambition. I wasn’t expecting the office purchase but we know boohoo love a deal and given the current climate you couldn’t pick a better time to pick up a cheap soho based office. You have to admit Soho is more the brand they are trying to sell compared with Leicester.

So good move I’d say. They certainly don’t sit still.

I also think it’s a good sign results are going to be good. You wouldn’t be ploughing your cash into property if you were going to need that cash.

Sounds like the new ‘dog’ variant from Thailand is about to emerge then.

Try stockopedia. I find that very good as it gives you access to all the balance sheets ect. You have to be careful with less established stocks or stocks undergoing change though as quite often the forecasts aren’t up to date and you need to have done your own homework. For example at £1.70 Ncyt was classed as a sucker stock but at £4-5 got upgraded to super stock. Those in the know had already got in. It’s now classed as a contrarian stock mainly due to the loss of momentum.

Feel super confident holding BOO at the moment. We’re at the top of the current trading range, undervalued based on future earnings, could very well break out, even if the traders take this down again it’s not going to drop too far or for too long and will just provide a further buy opportunity before lift off.

Porky if you read my posts none of them have been negative. They have been realistic. You don’t like them because they aren’t feeding I into your ramptastic narrative. I don’t do shorting, I’m not buying into speculative ramping that’s all. I want to see some actual results so I can make an informed decision rather than taking more blind risks based on twiterrati’research’. What’s the negativity in that? I’m sure if the company is doing well they will update us in due course. Fingers crossed for Monday

Porky- the thing with being sat on the side is you can take a more objective view of a share.

I would love nothing more than sentiment to return and I’ll jump back in. But those who are invested, need others to invest their capital for the share price to go higher and I think the constant ramping doesn’t help the cause. It just helps the traders.

Will the share price take a run on Monday. Maybe, but if it does it will be on the speculation that we have won a part of these tenders. That hasn’t been announced, we are on a framework and this is old news, we knew we would be. When and if we successfully win a tender on that framework we may see an announcement from the company: I hope it is on Monday.

But if we see a share price rise on mere speculation without RNS from the company, how do you think that ends in the short term? Will any rise be sustained. All those buying in will get burnt as the traders take their scalp. The only thing that is going to move the share for the betterment of long term shareholders is the company actually delivering. And at the moment the evidence the ceo has chosen to show the market doesn’t generate confidence. And he’s a shareholder!

Porky- nothing of the sort. My clear agenda is to not lose more money here. I’m happy to invest here but I want sentiment to change before risking more capital.

If you want to talk agendas, look no further than those invested. You want the share price to go up to the moon and you can’t stand any view that isn’t on that narrative.