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Hypothetically if we have seen 50% of phase 1 invoiced in 2021 then that means we have seen rest of world growth from £45 million to £100million in H2 (222%). We are all very much focused on the big headline grabbing U.K. contracts and i whilst it would be nice to see those contracts develop, I feel that we may be missing the point. Novacyt aspire to be a global player in diagnostics, I’m interested to see how they are performing outside of the U.K.. to some respect the selling in the U.K. is done. We just need to continue to support the sales process here and the sales will flow. The bigger opportunity out there is the rest of the world. If we can maintain that growth rate or indeed expand it we could be looking at 200 million from rest of world sales in H1. I would presume that’s why we are seeing some overseas appointments.

The initial phase 1 contract says 4 months for a minimum of 150million. This Suggests it could be more and is demand based.

So my thoughts are that it will have been invoiced on demand and delivery of goods and therefore if there has been a hold up on roll out then a good portion of this contract may not have been invoiced in 2020. The extension in negotiation will be to review stocks and demand required to get us through the spring and then phase 2, mass roll out is all about opening up again after lockdown.

Bing is right. It’s invoice date that matters. Also whether the 150 million is just simply split over the 4 months. Or possibly it’s invoiced on delivery of goods. This might have been a ramp up. So not an equal split over the four months . Some have mentioned there may have been issues resolved with promate, so perhaps not as much as we think of phase 1 has been invoiced in 2020.

Our initial contract for 6 months ran until October and then phase 1 which was announced on the 29th September was to run for four months for a minimum of £150 million. Would they have started this contract in October and overlapped contracts, or would they have been planning ahead and the actual start of phase 1 was In November. If phase 1 started in November then we will only have invoiced half of it in 2020 and our international sales growth starts looking amazing!! If the start date was November then phase 1 isn’t due to end until the end of February.

Thanks Shaun, I’ve been following your research for a long time and helped justify my original investment so thankyou

I don’t think Graham needs to post on this forum. He’s got a lot of capital at stake. He would either have sold out on Friday or would be laughing at all of us in the knowledge of what’s coming.

We’re clearly still in phase 1. Contract was to run for four months till the end of January so is ultimately going to be due for extension in February which it sounds like they are finalising the details of and why we haven’t had a further RNS. Much of the revenue from phase 1 will actually land in 2021 so we should be in for a big H1. Especially once the extension is finalised. I don’t really get why everyone expects phase 2 to have been triggered yet. We haven’t finished phase 1. Phase 2 involves mass roll of units to point of care which requires people AND training, not to mention manufacturing. It was never going to be in the companies interests to rush this out and see it fail. It’s in phases for a reason. Just got to be patient. I’m sure the DHSC having chosen NCYT as it’s key supplier and will be looking to make full use of its investment in equipment. With much of the DHSC revenue actually landing in 2021 it means we have seen a considerable increase in rest of the world sales and I expect this growth to continue with the strategic hires we have made. This doesn’t end with the U.K. being vaccinated... we need the world to be vaccinated and that’s not likely to happen so testing is going to be around for a long time and through many mutations. If the pandemic has taught us anything, it is that we were hideously underprepared for this and we (the world) need to invest in the infrastructure to prevent and detect in the future.

Hi

I’ve been invested since £1.70 and my holding has become far too much in one stock... so yesterday really hurt. But by the time I could get a quote I was being offered £9 and I figured that’s just above where the directors bought in.

They have plans for increasing shareholder and their value.

Just looking at the spread of the contracts. Phase one didn’t start until October or November. I say this as the initial six month contract didn’t finish until October. Would they overlap contracts? I suspect that the majority of the DHSC contract has not been included in the full year figures but will actually be being realised in H1.21. This means we’ve also seen some Stella growth in rest of world sales which is likely to continue in 21. Then on top of that we have the microgen tender, a possible extension to the DHSC tender, possible phase 2. Plus continued growth in international trade and then to top it off potential for aquisitions