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Started: AliveandKicking, 17 Jun 2024 10:04
Last post: Chatroom, Today 12:26
Yes SaMason its very short lived.
Looking at the resent transaction history it is about 4m trades with the od spike to around 20m trades according to LSE.
We are currently over 49m sold and 22m purchased at 12:26
That was short lived!! 45mil sold vs 14mil purchased
As of 09:19 hrs the buys are outnumbering the sales by 30% 2m sales and 3m buys. It looks as though the market is viewing this as a buying opportunity
My opinion, for what its worth, is GSKs Federal appeal overruling the Delaware state ruling will most likely be lost.
I say this because I have dug about and read the ruling of the Delaware Judge on the critical 'Daubert standard'. (https://courts.delaware.gov/Opinions/Download.aspx?id=364910)
The Delaware Judge (who said the jury should decide the scientiic evidence with expert witnesses) opens her ruling and writes extensively, on the Daubert standard - this is the gatekeeper function of admissability of scientific evidence to jury trials.
She refers to the Roundup judgement, as a precident, which let in expert witnesses on weak scientific evidence and gave it up to the jury to decide. She also points out the Delaware state court has well established differences in how strong evidence has to be and it should goto Jury trial. That the seriousness of the cases removes the Daubert standard. And on and on... all backed up with precidents and rulings.
Non US company
Started: AliveandKicking, 14 Jun 2024 13:57
Last post: musclehead, 16 Jun 2024 15:18
2022-2023: Ongoing Litigation and Financial Implications
September 2022: Bayer continued to face thousands of lawsuits related to Roundup, impacting its financial performance and stock price.
Share Price (September 2022): Approximately €49.85 (Wikipedia).
2023: Bayer continued to negotiate settlements and address ongoing litigation. The company faced challenges in resolving future claims and managing the financial burden of existing settlements.
Share Price (June 2023): Approximately €53.11 (Wikipedia).
2024: Current Status
June 2024: Bayer is still dealing with legal challenges related to Roundup and other products. The total liability and impact on the company's finances remain significant, with ongoing settlements and court cases shaping the future of the litigation landscape.
Share Price (June 2024): Approximately €27.45 (Wikipedia).
Timeline of Bayer Litigation Liability with BAYN.DE Share Price
2001-2015: Early Legal Issues
2001: Bayer acquired Aventis CropScience, making it a major player in the agricultural sector.
Share Price (approx): Not readily available from 2001.
2013: Bayer's contraceptive pill Yasmin faced numerous lawsuits over alleged side effects, including blood clots. Bayer settled thousands of lawsuits for billions of dollars.
Share Price (December 2013): Approximately €89.60 (Wikipedia).
2015-2018: Monsanto Acquisition and Glyphosate Litigation
2016: Bayer announced its intention to acquire Monsanto, a leading agrochemical and agricultural biotechnology corporation, for $66 billion.
Share Price (June 2016): Approximately €95.06 (Wikipedia).
June 2018: Bayer completed the acquisition of Monsanto. This marked the beginning of significant legal challenges related to Monsanto's glyphosate-based herbicide, Roundup.
Share Price (June 2018): Approximately €88.76 (Wikipedia).
2018-2020: Glyphosate Lawsuits and Verdicts
August 2018: A California jury awarded $289 million to Dewayne Johnson, a groundskeeper who claimed Roundup caused his cancer. The award was later reduced to $78 million.
Share Price (August 2018): Approximately €74.12 (Wikipedia).
March 2019: A federal jury in San Francisco awarded $80 million to Edwin Hardeman, another cancer patient who used Roundup. The award was later reduced to $25 million.
Share Price (March 2019): Approximately €61.29 (Wikipedia).
May 2019: A jury in Oakland, California awarded over $2 billion to a couple claiming Roundup caused their cancer. The award was later reduced to $86.7 million.
Share Price (May 2019): Approximately €54.14 (Wikipedia).
2020: Settlements and Ongoing Litigation
June 2020: Bayer announced it would pay up to $10.9 billion to settle thousands of existing Roundup lawsuits. This settlement covered approximately 75% of the claims.
Share Price (June 2020): Approximately €70.15 (Wikipedia).
August 2020: Bayer agreed to an additional $1.25 billion for future claims related to Roundup.
Share Price (August 2020): Approximately €57.64 (Wikipedia).
2021-2022: Legal Setbacks and Adjustments
May 2021: A federal judge rejected Bayer's proposed settlement plan for future Roundup claims, stating it was inadequate for addressing potential future cases.
Share Price (May 2021): Approximately €51.45 (Wikipedia).
July 2021: Bayer announced it would set aside an additional $4.5 billion to deal with potential future Roundup litigation.
Share Price (July 2021): Approximately €46.80 (Wikipedia).
August 2021: The company lost another significant case in California, where a jury awarded $86.2 million to a couple alleging Roundup caused their cancer.
Share Price (August 2021): Approximately €45.18 (Wikipedia).
2022-2023: Ongoing Litigation and Financial Implications
September 2022: Bayer con
"The first rule of an investment is don't lose [money]. And the second rule of an investment is don’t forget the first rule. And that's all the rules there are." Warren Buffett.
Yes - Noone can reasonably predict what will happen, but it doesn't look great. The sidelines are the best place until more information co IMO.
From the BAYER case ;
There are 3 stages;
(1) The scientific evidence is determined as weak and essentially unprovable, but there is some tiny thread of a possible harm or expert witnesses who claim harm.
(2) The court makes a decision that because the scientific evidence is debatable, each case is determed on it's merits resulting in numeroius jury cases.
(3) Sobbing jury cases start awarding billions in damages with a backlog of thousands of cases. The company overturns the billions to 1 or 2 individuals to hundreds of millions on appeal, but the damage is done and a precident has been set for many more claims.
We are still at stage 1. But unless the Federal Court squashes the Delaware court appeal ruling that each case should be heard on it's merits, this business could be open for a BAYER style scenario with numerious sobbing jury courts.
Its with a very heavy heart I sold half my GSK shares today as they were inherited from my Parents. I will sit on the side lines with my war chest and if we win get back in asap. If we loose at least the sum bag Lawyers and ambulance chasers wont wipe me out completely , cant win what ever I do and really bloody annoyed having to go so defensive but don't think the sp will rise much until after the next round of appeals and my parents will turn in their grave ifi loose my inheritence..
Started: Gabski, 11 Jun 2024 07:41
Last post: Grezzz, 11 Jun 2024 16:27
Started: AliveandKicking, 11 Jun 2024 08:20
Last post: AliveandKicking, 11 Jun 2024 08:20
Pleased to see GSK are getting tough and the recent claim pulling out says to me most alleged victims never took the drug or are making it up for an easy pay off. I am retired now but having spent 30 odd years in courts I know right and wrong and justice is nothing to do with anything !!!! .Its ALL about making money by the legal professions. The alleged drug takers and GSK are just pawns to generate legal fees and appeals NOTHING ELSE !!!..Do you honestly want the people you represent to go guilty or say they are making it up or not sure ? , No the more days at court the better . Just 1 Average barrister makes £1k a day usually on legal aid plus the solicitors fees etc etc etc imagine how much large legal teams of dozens lawyers make with mutliple claimants ?.Do they want the game to stop of course not !.As soon as I here all we want is justice for our clients you know legal teams are on a gravy train. Sorry anybody that thinks any legal system and the jury system is robust and sound is in cloud cuckoo land. The trial by jury system is just a brilliant way of causing confusion and doubt. If 12 people went into a cafe would they all agree and order the same meal ? agree to drink the same drink ? or support the same political party or football teams etc etc ? Of course not you cant get 12 people to agree anything the best of times. Plus no disrespect but do you honesty think the average jury member will understand ANY of the science involved in this case ? .Of course not its pay day for the lawyers all they need is to cause doubt ??? I have seen it so many times , any time I hear somebody talk about the great legal system and how wonderful the jury system is, mainly by lawyers I have to throw something at the tv. Anyway rant over hopefully GSK will offer them £1k per liar and we can get on with our lives ? but I doubt it .
Started: AliveandKicking, 5 Jun 2024 14:12
Last post: nomlungu, 9 Jun 2024 15:10
If you pay off one dodgy lawsuit there will be a disorderly queue beating on your door with more writs which will bankrupt the company. The science says that GSK is in the right; should they accept being blackmailed by the threat of a Jury verdict? The whole article can be read at this Archive link
https://archive.ph/tdOo6
See this in the FT
https://www.ft.com/content/e99dbc4b-5539-491b-9c4e-6c7bc6367c4d
for those without access, it features the firm bringing the Delaware case which has spent $58m to find claimants. IMV it might be better for GSK to bite the bullet and negotiate a settlement even though one estimate is $ 3.5bill. That is LESS than the fall in value the news broke last week.
Class actions, typically American, are very difficult to prejudge ad BP famously discovered
She is slowly coming back up again , has anybody seen any time line when the appeal against these Ambulance chasers and judge takes place ? .Thats the time to be in cash for a few months , if we loose that GSK is toast and open to every nutter and ambulance chaser for decades . .I hope they are actually checking every single person who even claims to have taken the drug ? finding 70k people allegedly with cancer caused only by GSK drugs beggars realistic belief anyway .I'm sure a lot of brown envelopes to alleged key prosecution witnesses and 'alleged experts' are being handed out right now, just say this and we will see you alright . Hate to say it, and I know its the principle , but it may be worth GSK paying out a few hundred million now as its cheaper than share holders loosing billions later ! .I am sure horse trading is being considered right now . Its also about time any firm doing business in America either pulls out or provides far more robust protection to share holders.
Started: AliveandKicking, 2 Jun 2024 16:47
Last post: Derbyday, 4 Jun 2024 16:14
Compensation culture in the western world has gone mad.
Fire fighters 100 in total £20 million for just doing their job.
£4.6 million pay out for councillor for just doing her job.
All too traumatised to work again. All related to Grendfell Towers.
I have been on Zantac for years now I am forced onto other drugs that will be more risk of side effects than Zantac.
Where is my compensation?
BAYER'S gylcophosphate hebicide ROUNDUP, which has been around for over 50 years used on a large scale and deemed totally safe, showed a weak link to cancer from mice studies in 1 study. They could not replocate the results in rats.
Although the evidence was basically non-existant, an expert witness proved crucial to say he thought there was a link to a type of human blood cancer. (https://cllsociety.org/2023/04/toxic-exposure-does-exposure-to-roundup-cause-cll-sll-and-other-lymphoma/) - with that judgement the flood gates opened.
Some individuals, not even a class action were awarded billions. The claims have been never ending for such a popular product. BAYER stock did nothing but slowly fall from 120 in 2015, over a protracted period of years, less than a decade later it's 26 Euros.
Shareholders minimised or dismissed the threat of serious US legal liabilities from a popular product which is over 50 years old and had passed as safe all known tests to science.
Although BAYER is still just about in business the legal liabilities have crushed the iconic 160 year old company. Net debt is now an unbelievable 15 times operating earnings and trapped shareholders have seen years and years of losses as the drama unfolded - what was deemed a nonsense claim easily dismissed in 2015, snowballed into a monster of billions in compensation and thousands of claims, each year the story getting worse and worse.
Escalating mountains of legal claims out of molehills is a very real danger of the US legal system.
Another great RNS about Rectal Cancer
Hesham Abdullah, Senior Vice President, Global Head Oncology, R&D, GSK, said: "The data showing no evidence of disease in 42 patients is remarkable. These results bring us one step closer to understanding the potential of dostarlimab in this curative-intent setting for patients with dMMR locally advanced rectal cancer. We look forward to evaluating dostarlimab in certain colorectal cancers in our ongoing AZUR-1 and AZUR-2 registrational studies.
Johnpwh
Kind of glad now I sold half my GSK couple of weeks ago to fund my NG rights issue.
It’s funny how it works out ( sometimes)
Its ironic that the share price has fallen today considering there are 2, not 1 RNS announcements. One shows GSK to be developing, so far successfully, a life changing medication against that scourge of the Western world that is cancer. The other is a court case brought by ambulance chasing lawyers to further the cause of their own wealth by persuading gimme gimme gimme claimants to make dubious claims in the hope of some free cash. I assume they would be happy to to kill off GSK and lose their massive contribution to life expectancy that they provide. Funny old world.
Started: Mulder, 3 Jun 2024 17:08
Last post: Apeirogon, 4 Jun 2024 12:00
On point 1. Beyond dumb.
If you have an annuity of £100 per year and are fined £10 as a one off the annuity does not become £90.
Not 'Insanity'....but you make a common mistake...
1. It is nonsense that somehow, say, a $16bln liability can be adjusted by a $16bln adjustment in the market cap!! The market cap is LEVERED money chasing the companies earnings. i.e. a 10 imes P/E means if billions are taken from earnings - cutting GSK earnings by half, the marketcap has to half to stay at the same P/E...
2. That was before the Delaware Judge ruled the scientific evidence of causing cancer is valid and 70,000 cases can now goto Jury trials.
Bayer's product roundup - the cases went to jury trials - has had to set aside $16 bln (of which 10bln has already been awarded)
Bayer's shareprice went from 120 euros to 26 Euros as billions upon billions were awarded to individuals by sobbing jurys on the weakest of evidence. It's marketcap didn't go from 120bn to 104bln - it went from 120bln to 30bln!
Based on that looking at around a $750M hit for GSK.
Market short sellers lopped off $10 billion today!
Insanity.
Started: OAPnick, 3 Jun 2024 12:23
Last post: Jab1tt, 3 Jun 2024 16:01
Am still in profit here but thinking of selling. What makes me hesitate is the enormous difference in the SP between GSK and AZ. The latter is 40+., which makes me think this claim is all in the price already.
I got lucky too. I sold half my GSK on Thursday pm, at 1772+, in order to diversify. I am keeping my others, still consider it a long term growth and dividend prospect.
Started: regingbullock, 3 Jun 2024 10:28
Last post: regingbullock, 3 Jun 2024 10:28
Don't forget the good news
Hesham Abdullah, Senior Vice President, Global Head Oncology, R&D, GSK, said: "With the robust results from the DREAMM-8 phase III head-to-head trial, we now have consistent data from two phase III trials supporting the potential for Blenrep combinations to redefine the treatment of multiple myeloma at or after first relapse. This is exciting news given the high unmet need for new and efficacious combinations once patients relapse or stop responding to initial treatments. We continue to share data and discuss our path forward with regulators."
Started: AliveandKicking, 3 Jun 2024 10:14
Last post: AliveandKicking, 3 Jun 2024 10:14
We have not even had the us market open yet , they should suspend sale of gsk today and why oh why shorting is even allowed is beyond me ?it serves no purpose other than gambling.Lets hope she bounces back A BIT BY FRIDAY.?.
Started: regingbullock, 3 Jun 2024 08:36
Last post: The-Lockie, 3 Jun 2024 09:13
As did I.
Might trade this top up however rather that hold
Topped up
Started: AliveandKicking, 3 Jun 2024 08:58
Last post: buchanan101, 3 Jun 2024 09:11
Don't know where £20 came from
Is this oversold... the market seems to do this rather a lot; buying opportunity?
Alive and Kicking
If it makes you feel better, before I was aware of the news this morning,I tried to sell electronically ( in nominee account),
It gave me an indication of £20, but could not sell, tried again seconds later, this time £16 but again it could not sell.
I then went looking for why it had dropped,and promptly decided I was not selling
As I said in my previous entry this is a shorters paradise caused by Ambulance chasing law firms.I have all my shares in paper certificates lesson learned cant get thru to brokers fast enough to sell my shares so another few years to recover yet again., then I will sell at least half and keep half electronically so I can sell quicker myself. I was expectring a 10% drop this morning and unfortunately I was right , I should listen to myself more often the writing was on the wall weeks ago. sold half my lloyds recently think will do the same with rio before she gets hit .
Started: Nlgb, 2 Jun 2024 07:53
Last post: Grezzz, 3 Jun 2024 08:51
I topped-up. Nearly 10% down at this stage in the Zantac saga is way overblown IMHO and says more about the U.S. court system than the merits of the case.
Trouble is until we get it cleared up and rid of the subject keep popping up - our sp is spooked
"In 2019, some manufacturers and pharmacies halted Zantac sales after a chemical called NDMA, which is known to cause cancer, was detected in some pills. Some tests showed that Zantac's active ingredient, ranitidine, could degrade into NDMA over time or when exposed to heat."
Fully in the market at the moment, if I had more cash I'd wait a few days until it stabilised and then buy
And 98% are Automatic trades.
Probably a good time to buy
Currently showing an 8% drop on no significant trades as opposed to asome large buys on Friday.
Rediculous
Started: Compoundinterest, 3 Jun 2024 08:39
Last post: Compoundinterest, 3 Jun 2024 08:39
Miles apart... was valued similarly few years ago. Now only valued a 1/4 of AstraZeneca.
Poor strategy, decision making, and leadership. And getting litigation left, right and centre.
This looks a perfect buying opportunity and as a result of the fall increases the dividend yield.
Started: stargate, 29 May 2024 23:55
Last post: stargate, 29 May 2024 23:55
Sector below sp trough of 17/5/24, while GSK, is below sp trough of 21/5/24. The rally today is interpreted as a typical bear rally because it failed to breach the trough of 21/5/24. Lower congested trading levels, would be the appropriate price levels to expect support to arise. If GSK, can break above the 21/5/24 trough for a few days, then it could transform into support .DYOR.
Started: armstrong01, 24 May 2024 18:06
Last post: armstrong01, 24 May 2024 18:06
Take a step back and it’s been another good week for GSK. Depemokimab coming through on two phase III trials is massive. The market is circumspect but GSK leadership believe Depe will have sales the size of Shingrix and if approved will start rolling in next year. At peak this is forecast to be selling £1 billion a quarter 😳 We have won a Zantac case in Chicago. This is a big deal. I’m sure if we had lost this case the SP would have moved considerably more than it did today.
GLA 😊
Yes, I agree. I know its a bad day in in the market but I had imagined the news was worth more than 6p on the share price.
Good news.
Started: HappyInvestor100, 17 May 2024 07:06
Last post: HappyInvestor100, 17 May 2024 07:06
Started: The-Lockie, 13 May 2024 08:40
Last post: s.j.w, 16 May 2024 19:59
Is the sale of Haleon shares, to settle up with USA courts. The ending must be soon.
Will this trial ever end? If you stay invested you’re betting on a favourable outcome. I expect over 20 if gsk is exhonerated.
But has it got the legs to go much further.
Stuck between & rock and a hard place.....sell and bank the profits or stick it out. Decisions decisions.
Started: nomlungu, 10 May 2024 20:25
Last post: nomlungu, 10 May 2024 20:25
'Moderna’s First Vaccine Was a Big Hit. Its Second Is a Let Down'
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-05-09/moderna-s-mrna-rsv-vaccine-isn-t-better-than-gsk-or-pfizer-shots
'Early signs from clinical trials suggest that Moderna’s shot wears off faster than offerings from GSK Plc and Pfizer Inc.'
Mixed feelings; I really want to see progress on mRNA & miRNA on a range of diseases [especially cancers] but I am a GSK shareholder.
Started: armstrong01, 24 Apr 2024 10:43
Last post: armstrong01, 2 May 2024 10:12
Reviewing actual sales £m vs consensus
Shingrix. 945. +40
Arexvy. 182. -9
Cabenuva. 213. -3
Dovato. 483. +11
Benlysta. 260. -31
Apretude. 54. -5
Nucala. 374. -18
Ojjaara. 52. +15
Jemperli. 80. +17
Top 9. 2643. +17
Shingrix beat due to public funding expansion and early supply to Zhifel
Dovato growing at 27% and leading oral 2DR
Ojjaara beat due to strong US launch and launched in UK and Germany in Q1 2024
Jemperli beat because it is growing >100% with continued strong momentum and growth.
Overall well received results and guidance increased 😊
Consensus estimates are out for Q1 24 for the top 9 products which will drive growth for the next two years. £m
Shingrix. 905
Arexvy. 191
Cabenuva. 216
Dovato. 472
Benlysta. 291
Apretude. 59
Nucala. 392
Ojjaara. 37
Jemperli. 63
Top 9. 2626
In Q1 last year the top 9 sold £1991m so growth of £635m (31.9%) is expected across these products. It’ll be interesting to see what next week brings.
GLA
Started: OAPnick, 2 May 2024 10:08
Last post: OAPnick, 2 May 2024 10:08
Last year's guidance of 56.5 actually yielded 58p. This year's guidance of 60p may well turn out at 61.5p. and increase in line with forecast core eps growth, so no change in policy. It pays to remember that every penny over that number is a penny not spent on paying down debt and/or on r and d.
Started: HappyInvestor100, 1 May 2024 07:14
Last post: steviewonder77, 1 May 2024 14:51
Adeg/we are becoming more of a growth company ,that means less dividends. You are going to be disappointed holding this, if you are expecting dividend increases. What you will see overtime is the SP will increase. By top slicing on the top of the trading range ,you can get your divi that way
Not with a 60p per year dividend, it would be down to 3% at £20 per share. Time to give some more back to the owners.
£20 looks odds-on soon.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/GSK/1st-quarter-results/16448807
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Started: armstrong01, 27 Apr 2024 09:47
Last post: armstrong01, 27 Apr 2024 09:47
I know I’m ever the optimist but I have a hunch it’s going to be a good quarter with a strong start to the year. If we also get any positive news on Zantac litigation or pipeline progress, particularly on Depemokimab or Camlipixant that would be icing on the cake.
GLA