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Run your profits and cut your losses. Of course, this is not investment advice but it is never wrong to take money off the table from time to time. Besides, a profit that is banked is real, whereas a paper one is at the mercy of the market.
There is a more compelling case to buy shares in BAE than there is to sell them at the moment based on the committments that Governments around the world have made to defence spending. I had hoped that now, in the 21st century that countries would not engage in war and that the only reason for a defence policy and arms was in response to terrorism and isolated events. Naive of me as Ukraine, Gaza and Haiti demonstrate to the world.
Hold, unless you need the money. Otherwise, wait and watch – this will double within 4 years.
I up 168% with BAE ,do I sell or hold?
It is clear that the bridging finance used to fund the BAE purchase of Ball will have been at higher rates than the 5.00-5.50 for the "new " money , successfully getting the offer away will be a positive for BAE. At those levels a few basis points saved are worth quite a lot . In addition the positive signal of being able to raise that sum illustrates the debt market's confidence (which I share).
In other news "OZ" has confirmed today that BAE will build the AUKUS subs and work has been committed in SA and WA and funding includes £2.4bn between BAE and RR in the UK. See
https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/australia-earmarks-billions-for-naval-infrastructure-as-bae-wins-aukus-submarine-work-3394992
FWIW, although I am at the end of my working life and at the point when journalists and others of influence suggest a 60/40 portfolio of bonds/equities, my portfolio remains firmly aligned with 100% exposure to equities.
Since there is no expiry date in my birth certificate and I fully expect to last for the next 30 years, there is absolutely no reason why my portfolio should not target capital growth and with my risk at HIGH, a potentially greater return can be expected.
Unless a bond is priced to yield at least 13.25%, from a blue chip, I am not interested. Could I be tempted at 9%? No. What about 6%? Well, plenty of funds will want that sort of return.
Thanks for the quick reply , not sure weather to dive in now or wait for a dip ! Anybody got any opinion on RTX corp
19 Mar 2024, 03:07 AM IST
(Bloomberg) -- UK defense company BAE Systems Plc is sounding out investors for a corporate bond sale that could top $4 billion to help refinance a bridge loan it used to acquire Ball Aerospace, according to people familiar with the matter.
The firm agreed to buy Ball Aerospace in August in a $5.6 billion deal as a way to reach into space, a frontier the company predicts will become increasingly important in warfare. It marked the biggest purchase in the firm’s history. The final size of the bond offering will be determined on the day of the sale.
The bond sale will refinance a $4 billion facility taken out by the company in August. It’s the latest in a slew of deals earmarked for mergers and acquisition financings after the worst year in a decade for buyout funding.
BAE Systems and Bank of America Corp., which coordinated investor calls for the sale Monday, did not immediately reply to requests for comment.
https://www.livemint.com/news/bae-systems-eyes-at-least-4-billion-to-fund-ball-aerospace-purchase-11710797857178.html
You have hit the nail on the head Nondeplume - the Saudi's now have all the cards in their hands. Let us in on future aircraft or we might go elsewhere. A situation which may never have arisen if the Germans had not banned the sale of parts to build new aircraft. So we wait for the Typhoon order but if the Rafaele also get's in that is still a blow to BAe who considered Saudi as a home market.
45% over one year, and is in constant climb mode; should exceed analysts predictions. "The 19 analysts offering 12 month price targets for BAE Systems plc have a median target of 1,360.00, with a high estimate of 1,450.00 and a low estimate of 1,180.00. The median estimate represents a 4.21% increase from the last price of 1,305.00."
The Germans have lifted the embargo on sale of Typhoons to the Saudis. However, while the Germans were debating this, the French jumped in and offered the Rafaele [ Macron made a personal approach]. As DB pointed out it is still up in the air. Once again DB makes a valid point that the Saudis want a more active role/participation in the future projects. Depending on the how the current consortium of UK, German and Italy [Typhoon] and future consortium of UK, Japan and Italy [Tempest] react to this demand, I believe this will not only effect the sale of the 48 Typhoon but also future Tempest orders.
Can someone please tell me the position of the Typhoon sale to the Saudi's , am i right in thinking the German's have now OK'ed the sale.
Many Thanks
BP
Totally agree about FOMO.
Good to see Bae closed above £13. RR struggling with £4, needs some new impetus before heading to £4.20+ and RM just around 4% away from Eur500, which might prove a barrier for now.
Wednesday UK CPI might provide a small boost if inflation falls, however, looks like all Central Banks [BoE, FED & ECB] unlikely to cut before June. Are we due a sideways or minor correction move?
Ah FOMO....a dreaded affliction that I sometimes suffer from..only to normally regret hitting the buy button after....ah well.
I'll keep an eye on the trend you mention as hadn't really noticed that. Doesn't take a lot of volume to move either in US as low average volumes traded - BAE 240K RHM 16K for 90 day average.
For those trend followers out there BAE has a gently sloping bottom left to top right chart from October last year. Maybe two minor pullbacks circa 3-4%.
RHM - same direction but not as smooth. Took off Feb this year up approx 40% since then. Vey much tied to Ukraine and Eastern Europe geopolitical defense.
Needless to say to say both companies are in an in demand sector and also more preferable geographical location versus US counterparts imo. Share price action for US cos a little less predictible.
Tks WHL for your insight. I hear what you are saying about RSI. I follow MACD, but unfortunately another indicator much overlooked even by myself, FOMO. With so much cash around especially in the US, FOMO momemtum trades play a big part. I noticed in the afternoon on US entry, Bae gets sold and RM gets another leg up. I ask myself are they switching to the other, as you say more visibility.
NDP
My take on RHM is they are in process of rerating and continue to as more visibility on pipeline which is huge...just announced results last Thursday 2023 Sales €7.1B - 2024 estimated €10B.
That said the valuation has come a long way so less upside there and i am struggling a bit with it where it is at the moment certainly stretched with RSI 80.
Short answer is mixture of both fundamentals and momentum with bias towards momentum short term.
Tks DBarnet. Good to see Bae shares break through £13.00 . Hopefully it will hold today and make its way towards £14.50. It has been a bit of a laggard when compared to RR and Rheinmettal who seem to be on a momemtum play at the moment, moving up each day. Although fundamentally and looking at its diverse portfolio, especially since adding Ball Aerospace, to me it is more attractive.
The Germans have apparently dropped their opposition of arms sales to Saudi. The deal for 48 Typhoons will now surely be soon although the Saudi's may also buy Rafaele.
As for Tempest, and even Typhoon, the Saudi's will demand a bigger role as under their 2030 Vision plan 50% of defense expediture will be in Saudi. BAe will have to transfer more work to Saudi in exchange for aircraft sales.
Hi Rheinmetal_fan. Thank you for the information. I gather this refers to next fighter jet the Tempest, but I thought the Saudis were initially interested in buying the Eurofighter Typhoon which was being blocked by Germany. Has that embargo been lift and is that proceeding? They want 48 Eurofigthters.
I noticed Rheinmettal continues to roar ahead. Is this a now a momentum trade to Eur 500 or backed by fundamentals?
Shame I can't read it, but the headline is right, BAE should be integral to defence in the European war currently raging in Ukraine
£13 now reached. Barclays & Bernstein sees £14.50 on the horizon, Berenberg £13.60. Personally, I think £15 is closer. I reckon this will get an adrenaline shot around November when the US elections take place. £20 next Christmas 2025 will be on the horizon I think.
Do you mean that you have rattled some bones, swirled the dregs of a cuppa and examined the entrails to determine that the share price will continue to rise?
The sector chart price has broken above the 7/3/24, fractal high, which is bullish. The BAE chart, sp, has broken above the 5/3/24, fractal high of 5/3/24, which is also bullish.
Looks like BAE have taken the baton from RHM, glad i stayed with BAE.
Good start to the day, UBS price target upgrade, UK wage inflation data continuing downward trend, now we need good US CPI data for the market to push forward.
Keep an eye on Cable, want a lower Pound against Dollar as most income in Dollars and don't want to lose out on currency translation.
£13 today? GLA