The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Quote from GS note on 9th April.....
"While our Portfolio Strategy team are relatively constructive on the European Defence outlook, they are not recommending EU Defense given the challenging valuation premium and recent outperformance," the note said.
Somewhat of a contradicition to their note of yesterday but there was the Iran / Israel missile launch last Friday.
As geopolitical tensions rise GS " increasingly favour stocks exposed to long-term secular growth themes with superior visibility on growth."
Names Thales with PT of €170, RR, Airbus as buys. Also names Rheinmetall with 12 month PT of €606.
No mention of BAE though....
Ah FOMO....a dreaded affliction that I sometimes suffer from..only to normally regret hitting the buy button after....ah well.
I'll keep an eye on the trend you mention as hadn't really noticed that. Doesn't take a lot of volume to move either in US as low average volumes traded - BAE 240K RHM 16K for 90 day average.
For those trend followers out there BAE has a gently sloping bottom left to top right chart from October last year. Maybe two minor pullbacks circa 3-4%.
RHM - same direction but not as smooth. Took off Feb this year up approx 40% since then. Vey much tied to Ukraine and Eastern Europe geopolitical defense.
Needless to say to say both companies are in an in demand sector and also more preferable geographical location versus US counterparts imo. Share price action for US cos a little less predictible.
NDP
My take on RHM is they are in process of rerating and continue to as more visibility on pipeline which is huge...just announced results last Thursday 2023 Sales €7.1B - 2024 estimated €10B.
That said the valuation has come a long way so less upside there and i am struggling a bit with it where it is at the moment certainly stretched with RSI 80.
Short answer is mixture of both fundamentals and momentum with bias towards momentum short term.
Fair to say the much anticipated acceleration of revenues from contracts and new products hasn't materialized to the degree anticipated.
I was always fairly comfortable with SPA given they have funded expansion from revenue but that clear sky is now cloudy given cash position. Prior years cash has been around $3M mark: 2021 - $2.8M, 2022 - $3.2M, 2023 - $3.1M and now lowest at $1.1M.
FTM makes a logical point that current wallet doesn't support global ambitions so capital maybe required. I sincerely hope I am wrong but seen this movie all too often before with early stage companies.
Regrettably sold up and moved on as risk has increased, which is a shame as been here since 2021 but banked my profits and will monitor situation. (Probably look like an idiot tomorrow when SP moves back to mid 60's!!)
GLA
Downgrade but increases price target to £35 from £33....covering all bases...oh the life of an analyst.
To be fair says sp performance has come quicker than expected and doesn't see any catalysts in near future.
Yes I have been in RHM for a year. Portfolio covers low tech - artillery shells as well as high tech. Seemingly announce material new contract wins weekly.
Interesting CEO interview with Reuters.
In BAE as well but later.
Defense sector has legs. European cos superior performance than US counterparts, which popped after initial Ukraine conflict but have lagged since.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/rheinmetall-could-be-worth-17-bln-euro-over-medium-term-ceo-2023-06-10/#:~:text=Rheinmetall%20could%20be%20worth%2017%20billion%20euros%20over%20medium%20term%2C%20CEO%20says,-Reuters&text=BERLIN%2C%20June%2010%20(Reuters),increased%20defence%20spending%20in%20Europe.
The high share price was back in the go go days of non-existent interest rates so outlier imho. That said if they execute and the TMO partnership develops then this is significantly undervalued.
Been watching this for years off the back of RENX and eventually started a small position at end of the year. Major caveat I had was cash position and that seems to have been addressed at least for the next 12/18 months depending on cash burn.
Just hope the US election doesn't add too much grid lock to roll out of products.
The no comments is partially why this is a sleeper share.
Acquisition looks thoughtful as they have been working with company so know them well.
Numbers not going to move the needle initially but at least it is profitable and debt looks remarkably low rate 0.3% if I am reading the RNS correctly. Interested to see what the total debt number is.
The polymer substrate side of the business looks the potentially growing side of business.