The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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Started: Koolkk, 23 May 2024 07:50
Last post: mrplow, 23 May 2024 15:46
Thanks KnC. I trust Energean's timelines significantly more than Chariot's!
Hoping they upload a webinar recording to their page here (https://www.energean.com/investors/calendar/) like previously. I thought the CEO spoke very enthusiastically about Anchois on the January update (from about 18mins 30 into the call if anyone missed it).
I think they've been pretty clear. It's scheduled for August. Their RNS reiterates August more than once...
" the Anchois appraisal well in Morocco is planned to spud in August"
"Morocco farm-in completed and rig contract signed for the Anchois appraisal well"
"Anchois (Morocco) appraisal well spud planned for August 2024"
Mrplow
This is from their LinkedIn post:
we’re planning to spud the Anchois appraisal well in Morocco by August.
It reads as though they plan to spud no later than August. So yeah, maybe the wording in the RNS is them just being cautious.
@whimax - why do you think they are being 'overly cautious' here with their August date?
I think there being overly cautious there, but even so, it’s only 10 weeks away.
👍
Started: harrycarter, 22 May 2024 20:08
Last post: BouncyDeadCat, 23 May 2024 11:58
Harrycarter,
When it comes to the question of 'how long' most of it depends on the farm in partner who then becomes operator.
One of the primary reasons Chariot chose to partner with Energean is due to the speed at which Energean moved their last asset (the Karish gas field) into production.
When it comes to these big gas deposits, it's the proving of resources that takes the time, not laying production infrastructure. Energean seems to move quickly into production once they have proven the resource.
For example; By 2022 Energean had proven 1.4Tcf of gas in the Karish gas field offshore Israel and in October 2022 moved to production. Through 2023, they went from zero to 4 production wells in just over 1 year which is impressive for any O&G company. By the end of 2023, gas production capacity reached an equivalent of 6.5bcm per year. Total production of gas and fluids was 87k boepd.
Production from Karish is continually being increased through 2024 as the FPSO is optimised. Already, within 2 years, the Karish field has become a significant supplier to the Israeli gas market. Energean has stated that it wants to do exactly the same thing in Anchois and become a major player in Morocco.
If Chariot had chosen to partner with a Super-Major, maybe it would take up to 10 years for Chariot to see any revenue from the Anchois field as Super-Majors tend to have large portfolios of assets that they slowly work through to production, and maybe that's why the punter over on ADVFN was talking in such generalised terms of a decade, because he/she thinks Energean operate like a Super-Major, when they've proven to be a much more nimble mid-sized player (with cash) and a history of moving quickly to production.
Harry, I refer you to my post of 13 September 2023.
No not this post. A later one with estimate of when Chariot will pay back borrowings if Anchois moves forward.
Mr plot.
Chariot only repay the enog any anchois capex funded by enog, from 50% of its 20% of net cashflow. So chariot generate free cashflow from day 1 of anchois production.
Jimmy
"Any thoughts on that from serious invetors here?"
I am a serious investor and I think here is a strong possibility of onshore success leading to revenues sooner than 10 years but we need to hit a drill now. Even then I assume its going to be a while to build infrastructure to realise onshore sales, but in my head this was 1-2 years rather than 10 years.
Interesting you rue not selling at 20p but not at 14.5p when you were saying the directors were only in it for themselves and the onshore would all be dusters (in hindsight this jumps out as a shockingly good call so far). As a serious investor I did sell around then - I was worried at the sudden jump to onshore - but I have since bought back in in the 7's as I do think the onshore could now be fortuitous and the offshore looks in a better place too.
Started: list2309, 23 May 2024 07:26
Last post: list2309, 23 May 2024 07:26
Since 2009, have been investing in mostly oil, not in gas, lost lot of money but recovered also, have been in RKH, XEL, HUR etc.
was lucky to average down on CHAR by buying when it was 2 to 3 pence and now holding with average of 3+ pence
Suresh for how long have you been investing in E&P without understanding what mcf means? Happy with contingent v proven? Read the SPE manual.
Thanks everyone for clarification so mcf is 1000 cubic feet, now it make sense
Mcf - It is confusing. Jimmy has it right. - the "m" does not stand for million, it is the Roman Numeral for 1,000. So ONE mcf is One Thousand Cubic Feet.
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/valuation/measuring-natural-gas-mcf/
A Billion Cubic Feet (1bcf) is a Thousand Million Cubic Feet or a Million Thousand (same thing). ie as Jimmy says "1 Million mcf"
IC incorrectly translates mcf into 'million cubic feet' in their piece, which is probably the cause of Suresh's confusion. mcf is a thousand cubic feet.
Started: NigelHaemoglobin, 21 May 2024 16:56
Last post: ianfer, 22 May 2024 09:19
Tiny trades so far today. £4000 net sales. No reason to mark down sp by .23p except MMs own agenda.
Great prediction thus far
Probably due to auction but my price alert feed just reached 13.17
I predict a strong rise tomorrow.
Lego muncher……..ignore!!
What a pathetic post. Why are you even bothering to post if you feel that way.
Chariot has been a basket case for years.Nothing is ever going to happen
Lesley50 - I defend your right to say what you think, but that's a very strange thing to say. Are you aware of the ENOG partnership, Chariot's history with Anchois and the terms that apply as the resource develops ?
Thought not !
Started: CityWatcher, 20 May 2024 17:49
Last post: CityWatcher, 20 May 2024 17:49
Morocco will be the reason if she delivers after their drilling.
Chariot Ltd (AIM:CHAR, OTC:OIGLF) told investors it has started drilling the OBA-1 well, on the Dartois prospect located in the Loukos Onshore licence, in Morocco.
The Dartois target holds an estimated recoverable prospective resource of 12 billion cubic feet (Bcf).
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/219987/chariot-limited-adds-renewables-edge-to-portfolio-219987.html
Started: NewKOTB, 20 May 2024 14:09
Last post: NewKOTB, 20 May 2024 14:53
Mid-point at that time was 7.851 afaics
NewK - Especially as the prices look like buys and they say "unknown" .... More to it than meets the eye!
'O' trades that are reported late, very unusual.
Only just seen them, large mid-point trades, 'O' ones at that, hummm !!! :
Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Bid Ask Value
20-May-24 10:30:53 7.85 800,000 Unknown* 7.67 7.71 62.80k O
20-May-24 10:24:15 7.86 800,000 Unknown* 7.67 7.71 62.88k O
20-May-24 10:23:42 7.85 800,000 Unknown* 7.67 7.71 62.80k O
Last post: Thebold, 20 May 2024 13:30
Fernan 10, like you I find myself in unfamiliar territory, we are totally aligned here on this mater.
"Two hits, two misses or one of each, its just luck and not really down to management judgement."
I disagree with that assessment.
These onshore wells were sold to us as "low risk".
Another miss and Duncan's credibility will be put in jeopardy.
Regards
... and an update on the strategic review on power....
What is the COS on wells like this? 50%? Two hits, two misses or one of each, its just luck and not really down to management judgement. The question is whether the risk reward was worthwhile before you know the results, clearly it was here. We just have to wait and hope.
Incidentally it would be very good to see some news regarding offshore preparation before the onshore well results drop.
That is called “Epstein’s law.”
Started: Surety, 19 May 2024 18:58
Last post: whimax, 20 May 2024 10:56
You must be getting a bit twitchy now Surfit?
Second drill under way, and I assume your other “investment/trade” hasn’t allowed you to transfer those funds back to Chariot yet, or I’m sure you’d have let us know.
Careful you don’t miss the boat here 😉
🙄🤡
For sure it is ! however one miss is just on the limits of excusable with what they advised before the campaign , 2 misses and then serious errors of judgement and professional / technical capability will undoubtably be questioned.
If nothing else it’s a very efficiently run drilling campaign.
So if A.A. sold his stake in Energean he could buy Chariot 5 times over.
Started: Fernan10, 17 May 2024 15:09
Last post: Fernan10, 18 May 2024 11:01
Ok Jimmy.
Very informative and reasoned post from you as usual.
Regards
Fernan
Hi fernan.
The anchois trap geometry overall is an anticline, and there is a fault intersecting part of the anticline which separates anchois 2 area from anchois north. So technically it’s a separate compartment which needs to be drilled and proven. It should be very low risk, particularly as the forthcoming well comprises of two sections, the firs being effectively a redrill of anchois 2 which will also test an exploration compartment of the O sand, and a pilot hole to anchois north.
Jimmy
Ok thanks Jimmy.
In the case of the upcoming well in Anchois, what is the geometry of the trap? is it a four way dip anticline, or another type of trap? (and hence higher risk),
Thanks
Fernan
Hi fernan
The seismic amplitude anomaly Avo , can identify reservoirs which have gas in them , and historically this has been circa 80 % successfull I the rharb basin.
The Avo analysis can some times identify reservoirs with residual gas in them , which now appears to the cas e due to a thicker reservoir than expected which seems to have leaked across A fault which we now know did not seal.
Should not be a problem in afourvwaybdip antichline like dartois . Got to drill to prove it though.
Jimmy
Hi Jimmy.
I have a question about the subject, as follows: Loukos drilling campaign is based in the presence of certain seismic attributes in the prospects to drill. Supposedly these attributes were all present in previous successfull wells in the area, and absent in dry wells.
These attributes were all previously detected in Gauffrete, according to Duncan.
Does the failure in Gaufrette put this thesis into question?
What are the implications for the upcoming well in Anchois? (I understand the same exploration thesis is being applied onshore and offshore).
Thanks in advance.
Fernan
Started: n1shares, 16 May 2024 23:50
Last post: Thebold, 17 May 2024 14:31
Stena Forth should be complete with shell egypt by mid june.
Energean indicating that it should be at the beginning of Q3 (July) rather than the end - so only 2 months to start...
The onshore drilling is free upside with no downside due to the offshore drilling in Q3.
Looks like the rebound to 8p is very much on. Taken some more in the 7s whilst the opportunity is still there. GLA
As I said yesterday that the decrease was an over reaction and the price would rebound.I did not think it would be so quick but I think people have started to realise it and the price will rebound quicker than I thought
Started: NigelHaemoglobin, 17 May 2024 11:26
Last post: NigelHaemoglobin, 17 May 2024 11:26
Everything offshore now hangs on the forthcoming low risk well. FID will unleash the latent colossal value in CHAR. Very hard to calculate but a 60-70% probability of achieving FID seems reasonable.
Last post: Jimmy23, 16 May 2024 23:01
Suresh.
Chariot did not drill the deeper target as the shallow target encountered thicker sands than expected , as a result the sealing faults did not seal. So likely same problem for the deeper reservoir which was not tested.
The next prospect seems to be a four way dip anticline so will not have that problem, but might thicker reservoir, but got to drill to find out. Deep prospect below dartois called Navette, looks good but it’s classic exploration risk, but low cost to find out.
Jimmy
Pragmatic cost considerations as well?
Seems that the option on the deeper target wast taken. I assume the geology suggested that gas in upper = gas in low target? I would have thought that the two were not related?
Did they drill that deeper prospect which you thought could give us 1TCF ?
Started: mrplow, 16 May 2024 14:37
Last post: Legalwolf, 16 May 2024 20:43
Big reversal of yesterday’s panic by weaker hands. Heading back up to the 8s by the looks of it.
Simon now rates the shares a buy..........also sights Cavendish NAV referred to yesterday.
Some massive trades have come in at these levels. The Loukos sideshow has presented a gift opportunity which many are gleefully and gladly taking.
Congrats to those that bought yesterday. I posted this back in Feb "....buying when the fear is highest, if Loukos does disappoint, then that could be the real opportune time to buy."
I believe we'll be double where we are now before the AE drill, regardless of what happens with Dartois, and 5x where we are now if Energean takes FID and exercises their option with us. My uneducated opinion only.
Started: Troajan, 16 May 2024 11:36
Last post: marland, 16 May 2024 17:26
Thanks for posting. Same problem once off Guinea, hydrocarbons were once there but migrated because of the trap.
Excellent interview and certainly not downbeat. Next well drill only days away...can your nerves take it? Gooner a better day today listen to the interview .Thanks Troajan
Looks like yesterday's (retail) panic is over. It's still game on for Loukos listening to that. GLA
Troajan - good upbeat interview today with Duncan. Thanks for posting
Started: NigelHaemoglobin, 16 May 2024 12:24
Last post: NigelHaemoglobin, 16 May 2024 12:24
Does anyone have any information regarding the onshore rig contract? I suspect that it has some flexibility for appraisals.
Started: NigelHaemoglobin, 16 May 2024 11:53
Last post: NigelHaemoglobin, 16 May 2024 11:53
So many tiddler O&G outfits bounce from one placing to the next, relentless diluting shareholders until they become strangely wise but irrecoverably out of pocket.
Char will, in my opinion, become a sustainably mid-cap firm which will eventually declare a dividend cover ratio.
Started: BouncyDeadCat, 16 May 2024 09:44
Last post: Bridgedogg1, 16 May 2024 11:34
2 months ago:
"....management has elected to undertake this review to explore the options available to the Company, which may involve a full or partial sale or demerger of the Transitional Power business or the division remaining part of the Chariot group, with the aim of the strategic review to maximise value for Chariot's shareholders."
Just look at some of the large trades coming in. It does look like there is very high demand at these bargain basement prices. They won't be seen again if this next drill is a success. Even if it is not, as this first drop has shown, any drop will be gobbled up very quickly. By the time the next drill results land, we will be in June. Therefore, there won't be long to wait for the Energean drill at Anchois. Who knows, we could even get an Anchois update before we get the results for this next drill. As we keep on saying, Anchois is this year's main event. Loukos is the side show and almost a bonus/free hit.
How do you play Loukos? Looks like the smart money are using it as a way of getting cheap shares for Anchois.
If you think about it, Loukos gives you upside whether it is successful or not. It has freed up cheap shares for Anchois. If it does it again (i.e. next drill is also a duster), then take the opportunity. It won't last long.
That's just how I see it (and looks like many others by the bounce and 6p and the large trades going in). All imo and GLA
As an investor, the reason I would support selling the renewables business and using that money to continue to drill and develop Loukos, is because low-cost driling is what Chariot are exceptional at. Allocate capital accordingly.
Snowflake,
I disagree with the notion that Chariot don't know where to drill, they hit massively with their Anchois 2 drill (their 1st drill in the area) which is soon forgotten by some. I also think it's easy to dismiss their technical expertise, Chariot were convinced by the limited early seismic data that Nambia held huge quantities of oil and they were right! Nambia has seen the largest discoveries of oil in the past two decades anywhere in the world. But at $20-25m per deep sea drill, they were never going to be able to afford to remain a major exploration player in Namibia. At $3m per exploration & production well costs onshore Loukos, they can. Loukos also has a lot more seismic and drill data available than Nambia had when Chariot were present there. I actually think Chariot's strength is on the technical and drilling side, much more so than other parts of the business. IMO.
Good post snowflake but $10m for Energean is not a big stake, it is merely pocket change, but here's hoping.....🤞
Started: NigelHaemoglobin, 16 May 2024 09:33
Last post: NigelHaemoglobin, 16 May 2024 09:33
I'm in for the Anchois development even though Anchois are a little high in Purine.
Let's hope they stop pecking around in the sand á la PRD and crack on with this world class development with frankly excellent carry terms.
This stock is like guessing the time….
If you keep buying eventually it will come good! 😃
These drills were wildcats all focus should be on offshore as that’s what the Takeover is about for multiples of this share price
The bad stuff is that shareholders have lost 60% of the market value of their shares over the last 12 months.
Clearly there is more going on than the confirmation by the drill bit that some acreage which was worth nowt is actually worth nowt.
Riddle me that, ianfer.
We had some bad stuff yesterday which I believe is the first time since I've been here (5 years). It told us that one of the licences we got for nowt is worth nowt. We have others, also costing nowt, apart from the drilling costs which came from a raise of around £12m. So we lost probably less than £3m there. Duncan is keen to get on with the next drill asap which we should know about in 2/3 weeks. If that fails we lose another £3m. That's £6m max. out of a possible total worth of the Company of say 40p x a billion shares = £400,000,000. ie 1.5% loss in value. If the rest of the free on-shore is made up of dusters we only have Anchois plus the other pillars which is what we had before we were given the on-shore for free.
So Mr. Riskybusiness55 we are not toast, we are possible months away from finding out whether Anchois can support the average 40p valuations by the "experts" or if the experts have made some serious errors of judgement. We may find out if there is some manipulation of the sp for whatever reason - stake-building to enable a low bid for the lot perhaps.
Yesterday's news and further drop in sp wasn't exactly earth shattering but there are developing some serious differences of opinion on here which I think are due to understandable anxiousness about possible big? personal losses.
I have a lot of exposure, I think more than one or two directors, but without knowing fully what is going on I think it wise not to let emotions get in the way. I think we are in better shape than when the sp was 20p as we appear to be sat on a wealth of assets. More patience needed unless of course anyone has put in more than they can afford to lose and it is needed short term. That's rule No. 1 broken and I hope not too many of those here.
I bought some more today and I'm holding. Good Luck!
Started: NewKOTB, 15 May 2024 16:52
Last post: ianfer, 16 May 2024 01:33
Bridgedogg I suspect a misprint ? -
"Ultimately the offshore should be meaningless to the valuation because it wasn’t and isn’t priced in in any way"
I think you meant "On-shore" ??
You are utterly delusional IMHO. Totally nuts. I'd love to smoke some of your best.
Ultimately the offshore should be meaningless to the valuation because it wasn’t and isn’t priced in in any way. The market has still seen fit to wipe off £15m of the mcap which ofcourse is down to the massive sell off - the expectation that it would fall being self fulfilling. Still plenty of big buys and personally wish I had some cash to add here but don’t want to reduce anything else any further to add here. The offshore protects the share price to and extent, onshore was just a little sweetener. Sale of transitional power for £20m couldnt come at a better time.
Less than 2 weeks for the drill was atleast very efficient, should get the next lot of results fairly soon. No one knows what it will be but seems that the CoS is higher this time.
Fully funded offshore is a game changer once news flow starts coming in.
Only held through cos i think we will get an offer which will be better than selling in the 6's
Older and wiser.
I don’t know the answer to your question as I can only go on published information.
My reading of the cross sections on the exploration cross section published on the video presentation is that gaufrette was a fault bound structure, which found a thicker reservoir than anticipated with a consequence that the faulting was not a sealing fault, that is sand against sand.
The dartois prospect appears to be more of a four way dip anticline so it’s not fault dependant, and if the sands are thicker than expected then that’s an added bonus. There is also a very nice thick anticline deeper target called Navette, not previously included in resource estimates but it looks big.
Chartiot re processed the seismic before drilling, but did not publish thecresults, hopefully the new seismic helps to derisk.
Chariot have probably saved $1.5 million drilling the well.
Fingers crossed for the next well, up dip from proven gas also.
Jimmy
Started: RiskyBusine55, 15 May 2024 16:21
Last post: RiskyBusine55, 16 May 2024 00:22
Jimmy .. give it a feckin rest mate .. we are in the last chance saloon .. don't you see that ?
😉 I had to look it up !!
Wow a comment straight out of the 1980's
Malky is one of the enduring snakeoil salesmen .. I'd just about trust him with my grandmother who has AIDS
Malcy may have backed the wrong horse ...... but sunk cost fallacy taken hold.