Member Info for wyndrum

Yes, i hope so!

(Did you buy any ADV?)

I have for now DG, as I said its just too slow for me.

I am guessing here, so take nothing more from this than me simply sharing my thoughts with you, but the market is normally ahead of the game with the SP (buy on the rumour sell on the news, type of thing), and the SP is rooted at a pretty low level.

The market expected it to kick on (sales wise) when it was 5-6p and it didn't.

I imagine a re-rate will come if profitable but now I am thinking, how much of a re-rate? if it marginal but still a profit then good, but if growth of revenue and profit is a slow process then the re-rate won't be as dramatic as I had originally hoped.

The one thing I dread (ok a bit OTT there), is a successful update with everything still on course but at low levels and then EVE is still, though now profitable, one bad quarter away from tipping into a loss. I can't stand another 12 months of waiting for 2 updates to say " a bit more progress is being made".

So as i say, those are just my personal reasons I have jumped ship, but take nothing from it because I am not a LTB&H type as you know, and I have no crystal ball into what will happen.

As for XSG, I made a quick albeit very small, turn and got out.

The RSI is showing over sold but I can't discern a reversal pattern yet so for me I would not get back into this yet. ( it could well rally a few p and then fall below where it is now, for instance.)

It looks as though this latest delay will cause a fund raise hence the fall (that's my take on the fundamentals). Its quite something when you read it back over the last 5 years that it is still waiting to get meaningful sales generated. At some stage I will most likely get back in.

DGU,

I can't see any logic in this.

EVE are on a tightrope towards profitability. A tightrope, there is no margin for a misstep.

Assuming they are profitable currently they were not in the first half update, so the amount of profit for the whole year (assuming there is one which is a leap frankly), would be very small.

If they spent money on a share buyback before announcing year end profitability and then new problems surfaced it could be very painful for EVE (not so much financially but it would destroy confidence in the BoD. and rightly so)

CC has been consistently saying profits to arrive in 2022. She tends not to surprise the market. (I have "bet" a couple of times she would and been wrong. :0((

The SP reflects that until a clear profitable business model is in place the SP will stay where it is give or take.

The market (I think), wonders why a company struggles to breakeven, let alone make a profit, with a 28m turn over, and frankly so do I.

The nagging thought I have , even though from what i see I think CC is very capable, is that there is no quick fix to EVE and getting to profit, so even assuming it all goes to plan, the actual growth in the company to generate meaningful SP appreciation would seem to be a long process.

My patience is too short these days for this one after all.

Morning Nutmeg,

I think 200p is not that important in the great scheme of things but I am looking more closely at 205p. Chartwise it spiked up to there and still retreated (quite a way) down.

but being above 200p certainly puts that figure in play and again fwiw, if, if, 205p does go that will put pressure on the shorts I think as the next target is 254p (although it would not be in a straight line!)

Time will tell. DYOR

IMO, a bullish move today.

The trading range is still 178p-205p but within that there had been a pattern of lower lows and lower highs recently which today's close at 196.4 comprehensively broke.

So, a positive sign and a close above 206p is still the goal but today was a decent step to increase expectations for that to occur. However, it can also be viewed as just "noise" within the range. (As always DYOR)

You pays yer money......

Deemx.

No one here knows. so ignore any figure given. its simply a guess.

More importantly, what do you think it could be and why?

Do you have any sort of plan or system?

Whatever you do, never invest more than you can COMFOTABLY afford to lose.

Always assume, prior to purchase if the company went bust the next day, how would you feel both emotionally and financially?

If you think thats hard to judge then let me give an extream example:

If you invested £100 in HE1 and it fell 90% so your capital was now worth £10, what would your reaction be?

If you invested £100,000 and you lost £90,000, would you feel the same?

Boredigger,

What makes you think ADV will go sub 4p?

(I ask because at 4p 200k would cost £8k. Buying today at 4.2p would cost £8400. is the £400 so key relative to the potential of it not going down, unless, as i ask, you have a reasonable expectation of it falling back).

T4G, if you have read my posts then you will know that I keep banging on that TA is not predicting the future. It gives an indication as to what is most likely next.

As the whole exercise is looking into the future there are at this stage, no facts.

What is factual is that BH has been in pretty steep decline over the last 9 months or so.

It has also tried at various times to bounce off a support only for it to later, go through it and fall further. Currently its holding up on a support low of around 178p and fell after a rally to 181p and is now after a recent rally falling back again.

Whether this is the springboard from here to an upward trajectory is not clear yet. On friday I said 206p was the key close figure to show the downtrend had been broken. So i will wait for that before expecting further material gains.

Right now its in a trading ranges. Should 178p go, then 150p- ish looms.

So, close below 178p more falls likely. Close above 206, more gains likely.

PJ, most of it is priced in. (there has been quite a fall, I am not sure if you noticed :0))

Mostly Pi's don't move the SP much however, this is an easily manipulated stock so if some private buying comes in with force the MM's will react quite quickly. So there could be volatility on rumour or news, but if its relatively superficial any move (up or down) will probably reverse fairly quickly.

The shorts are obviously predicting that the business model will be hurt further in the current climate. (Shorts by their nature are usually relatively short term.)

So the answer to your question is what is your timescale. Next week, next month or next year?

It looks pretty good i think around here. there is an arguiment that 150p is possible and to be fair, every time it looks to have bottomed out another lurch down comes, so right now everyone is a little jittery.

my advice (fwiw), is if you are confident in the business model then don't read these BB's.

Just re-evaluate as and when their figures and official updates are released

I could tell you but... oh well.....

Iceman, presumably you prefer the commodity channel index to RSI?

I think that's true MC, and part of that is sometimes this "great divide" between the Fundamental Analysis of the company and Technical Analysis.

They are much more closely correlated then some seem to realise and if I had to be pithy (not my default mode, its true), I would say FA looks long term and TA short term.

Quite why it can cause so much hot debate (on both sides) is always a bit of a surprise to me.

ATB

gggg, it does seem a very high holding as an investment only.

I would think that it is because of a bid forming rather than anything else too.

But who knows.... time will tell.

Well, Milcait, the chart isn't "fancy" and your post, when you derived consolidation in the 3's and now the 4's with further gains to be expected, is charting.

You have expressly used a chart to expect further gains as the most likely outcome.

(Its not my fault... don't shoot the messenger :0))

DGU, I agree, but what a dilemma!

Do you discount for greater sales or not, for greater profits?

Can EVE "afford" to let Black Friday events pass them by and just say this is the price take it or leave it?

What seems to becoming more common place is that retailers don't discount as heavily on BF as they used to with many stories emerging of greater price reductions at other times of the year.

It really is horrible though for general retailers, ... just coming up to XMAS and you are "forced" to discount by some USA fad that took off over there and stuck.....

Hi ST "Attempting to draw any parallel between ADV to He1 is a very poor comparison wyn imv on so many levels."

I think that's a fair to a point (but all companies are never quite the same), and although i am not remotely arguing the toss, it would be fair to say that the expectation of an HE1 successful drill was very high based on the previous seismic studies and indeed all the info coming out from the company during the drill.

My point is: the rhetoric from this BB and HE1, do show similarities inasmuch as the "chances of failure are so remote that it makes it a once in a life time opportunity" type of thing

I offer no judgement on any outcome, but simply post my observation

Cheers

Milcait, when you say:
"It took step up to the 3s and consolidated.
Then up to the 4s and is consolidating now.
Awaiting the next leg up."

Followed by :
"...chart use is limited here at the moment I believe."

It seems a bit contradictory?

:0))

I'm with you Milcait..... but.... its not always a one-way street...

(Just talk to HE1 holders!.....)

Angelis,

Point out to me and any others reading this, what I have said that equates to either being "negative " in your eyes (what a sin!!!), or Troll-like?

SCB, so when you say "..show me where insaid the price should rise?!"

Are you saying you expect the price to fall?