Member Info for wyndrum

Is it Zoom? Maybe I was a being a bit harsh.

RNS 22/04/2020
Avacta Group plc (AIM: AVCT), the developer of Affimer® biotherapeutics and reagents, is pleased to announce that, in only four weeks and well ahead of schedule, it has successfully generated multiple Affimer reagents that bind the SARS-COV-2 viral antigen as part of the collaboration with Cytiva (formerly GE Healthcare Life Sciences) to develop an Affimer-based rapid test for the COVID-19 coronavirus infection.

RNS 22/07/2020
Avacta to begin clinical validation of the high throughput COVID-19 laboratory test in collaboration with the UK government CONDOR programme

15 months ?

G-Mann, I don't think it a leap to suggest demand is weak when a test we have had on sale for 5 months is withdrawn and that withdrawal will have no material affect on the balance sheet.

I am not denying any medical expert, but how the current environment pertains to AVCT specifically.

I also did not remotely suggest that AVCT will abandon its test

A fact however is, that we have been waiting 18 months for it to be authorised (HUA) and yet it has not been. Anywhere in the world, not one single, solitary country.

And of course I do see potential, particularly in the current AVA6k trial. And I am happy to be proven incorrect in my analysis of the test income potential.

There are some smart people here and it would have been interesting to hear some more considered views rather than you putting words in my mouth that I didn't say.

Just for the record, I did say many months ago when i felt AVCT had missed the mass testing boat, that I felt this test development was all about the "next" pandemic and if and when that does occur, then the UK will genuinely, with the help of AVCT and others, be in afar better place to react quickly and avoid what we have all endured over the last 2 years.

Michaels, the cost of buying and selling on this scale is prohibitive.

I am all for not putting in more than you can afford to comfortably lose, but forgive the stereotyping, the cost of buying a bottle of Rum, a packet of 20 Senior Service cigarettes, and a night out suggests you could afford a bit more than £50 as a top up for the next 5 years

If you have 42 shares (the cost was what, £10 plus to buy them?), then at 500p per share you would have £200. What will that buy?

You are basically walking into a casino with £1 and expecting to walk out a millionaire..... (It ain't going to happen.)

Either you are having a laugh (which i imagine is the general consensus here, me included), or if you are genuine, you have not got the funds to play the game.

ATB

Given the time (16/11) then I would expect (and I am the market in this post), specific, actual dates of when the rig will be moved, when it is expected to arrive and when it is expected to Spud.

The stagnation in the SP is all about the delays.

The market, (sorry me), must hear specifics, "on schedule" will not cut it. If not, then I would expect a dip below 4p tomorrow.

The obvious answer to my question is presumably Demand.

Demand can be broken down to Govt(s) and business.

Demand from Govt(s) seems to be at best, on the back burner as they are all relying on Vaccines to do the heavy lifting. That would account for no EUA's anywhere.

Demand may be there from business, but perhaps business won't pay for any test while free one's are available? I am not sure about this as accuracy in some areas of industry, must have been a prerequisite? However, as I have thought before, the cost of testing on a large scale is extremely expensive on a cost benefit analysis, so maybe demand is not great there either?

But, that brings us on the marketing the product.
Its beyond puzzling that there was no great fanfare or mass advertising of the test being available at launch and since.
This is clearly a conscious decision of AVCT to not do this.

I therefore surmise that the "we will make all we can sell" remark ultimately is saying that demand is not there (in any great numbers) currently and its not deemed worth spending money on pushing a product that has little demand.

So how does HUA help in stimulating demand?

Clearly it opens up the market into which AVCT can sell, but if govts are restricting LFT's (through delays) to get everyone vaccinated and then double vaccinated, and then boosted, it leads to the conclusion that there will be no rush by govt to push new tests onto the market.

When it does and people are boosted, what will the demand be?
(Much is made of Medusa's marketing skills but their big market via BooHoo, is the under 30's who are less bothered about tests and vaccines, so it will be interesting to see how they attack the over 40's market when eventually HUA is granted.)

Will travel still insist on it? If it does then that would be great, but as we now know it will be released into a more competitive market. And of course we still don't know the profit margin yet.

So, is it as simple (although almost unbelievable) that there is currently little demand for a new accurate test?

Will HUA be the saviour of all the work AVCT has put in thus far?

I hope so, but I don't think its a given yet based on what we know.

I still can't get my head around this:

Why is HUA expected to open the door for AVCT?

Business did not buy the test when it was available and launched in late spring, (and as far as I can see still isn't, given when it was withdrawn from the UK, it was not going to make any material difference to AVCT balance sheet.

(Which also suggests as AS is not expecting any material difference by end of December then it won't be back on the shelves by then? So, is it imminent as Myles suggests?)

It wasn't marketed then. (why?)

So if business did not want it then why would they and the public want it now?

Was the whole of the EU and the UK awash with free tests that, by any measure were not accurate (enough), so as to not have a scenario whereby accuracy was worth paying for? (I am thinking health institutions.)

Why has the EU not given EHUA, given they have it already in their in-tray for weeks if not months and many parts of the EU are crying out for accurate tests?

There just seems to be a disconnect between what we know:
AVCT best accurate test in the world with very good ease of use
Shortage of LFT's
Withdrawn from the UK
Govt not concerned with their own missed timelines on re-instatement
No Emergency home use anywhere in the world
Surge in cases in the EU
Little sales for the 5-6 months its been available

There is clearly a missing part of the puzzle.

But I don't suppose for a moment anyone here will want to discuss it what it might be.

This is a good RNS if for no other reason it keeps the focus on the stock alive.

If we take DM at his word then it looks as though fast progress is being made and I think impetus on this project is vital for both the actual company as well as the SP.

MrA, "....A mixture of arrogance, ignorance, entitlement and exclusion."

you could just as well apply your observation to this BB

DGU,

Say EVE buy back 10% of the company they destroy the stock and the SP rises by 10%. Don't you think that could entice sellers having a 10% bump for nothing, to get out?

So now the stock has less volatility with the reduced stock available, making swings and spreads larger, which in turn will reduce interest in people buying the stock. (if you can't get out when you want to, then it becomes beyond high risk!)

The only solution is for Eve to demonstrate a reliable profitable business model for the SP to go forward.

Until that happens it is (imo), fairly pointless at looking at anything else.

I tried to do back of the envelope calculations on how many domestic mattresses are sold in the UK each year and what Eve's cut is.

It suggests to me that the market is too crowded and consolidation is the only way forward. I don't see EVE being on the aquisition trail and I think a take over by a bigger fish is the (again imo), the "best" outcome.

In this scenario, the danger to that is that a company may wait for EVE to flounder first before bidding. Or that EVE will take itself private and it will all be done at the Share holders expense.

Who knows, most likely CC will prevail with her slow and steady approach. GLA

I know it grates Donald, but my "guff" has proved so far to be reasonably accurate.

And it was a genuine question. Are you saying by your post, that all the research etc is as useful as my Guff?

I think there was about 50 posts just doing movie titles today, but a serious question on the relevance and help that all the research that is routinely done here with the best of intentions is just ignored.

(Except for your remark, obviously)

This is now a complete echo chamber.

Is that what you all want from an investment bb?

I pay £5 so its not too bad for me and at pretty irrelevant in the over all overheads

SCB, Your posting style reveals your age.

On the 9th of August the SP closed at 136p

What benefit exactly derives from all this research and various links?

before some just go off on one, it is a genuine question.

This BB, has some well researched and experienced people both in the field of Bio Pharma and general research.

But after 18 months of covid .... To what end has it helped?

Hi Bert,

I buy and sell on HL. They also have a chart facility with some indicators which i use and base my decisions on that. I keep it it so simple even SBC could do it.

Right now BH is in a trading range of 178p-205p, it fell from 205p to 181p recently and I got in at 185p as it moved up believing that 178p now is the bottom. My stop will be 176p and my target is 255p. Therefore my "reward " is 70p per share and my risk (if it all goes wrong , is 9p per share, giving a risk reward of just under 8-1. Which is a good bet.

I have a more complicated way of banking profit which i won't bore any with, but Money Management is as an important part of trading as the actual stock picking.

The sudden news thing is always cited as a "problem" to TA, but actually that could be levelled at FA too, surely?

However specifically on TA, leaks being so prevalent, often the SP moves before the news breaks and therefore can often give a heads up as to what is coming.

As for not being financially exposed, I never bet with more than I can comfortably afford to lose. (Having said that I HATE to lose). But no one should ever put themselves into "needing" a investment to pay off.

It messes with your head, makes you unhappy and ultimately will end up costing the individual. And as we know looking at Boo, at 400p per share everyone was waiting for 500p to come round.... and look where we are now.

Nothing is certain.

Capital protection is always the name of this game.

Wolfie I only ever take long positions!

(I don't have the facility to short on HL )

I think its much harder then it looks to run your profits and cut your losses. Perhaps the risk reward is not as strong as it should be in your trades? Or your money management is not quite robust enough?

The mental discipline is everything in trading and again, its harder than it looks, which is why so many fail. Its a togh gig but if you can crack it, then there are consistent profits to be made. (imo)

Just fwiw, when I got my experience day trading I would over trade...(common rookie mistake) but by going short or long many times a day in just one product (30 year T-Bill), it emotionally allowed me to divorce the trade from the product. So it just became numbers (tics up or down and nothing to do with whether or not US Treasuries were long term looking good or bad.)

So now when I, for instance take a position in BH, I have absolutely no interest in BH at all. Its all about the numbers or specifically, the SP.

And that goes for all my trades.

I have said this often on various BB's, but I would surprised for anyone to be successful by day trading stocks. The spread is too big, the stops are too easily manipulated, and normally there is not enough volatility to ever get out at the price you want.

As its just a hobby now, I have worked out a system that seems to work taking these observations into account.

When I enter a trade these days I am expecting it to last days or weeks.

Good luck coz it is fun!! ATB

SCB, as you have freely admitted your are not that savy on TA.

So here are a couple of very basic tenets:

TA does not predict anything, ever.. thats very important to understand

Its just an odds game whereby looking at past movements makes the next move MOST LIKELY (just for emphasis).

Its not saying it WILL happen, just most likely to. Indicators are then overlaid on to these basic chart patterns in an attempt to improve the odds of the most likely outcome.

To go back to ODX specifically: when I said the chart looked good it then moved up by about 5% soon after, but that was very short-lived as it fell (i think the next day or day after), on new news breaking. and that broke the pattern.

So, people who use TA (and know what they are doing), don't get hung up on trades that don't pay off. Its not an emotional thing where every trade has to "win".

And that goes on to the 2nd fundamental aspect of using TA. Money management.

You may have heard the phrase risk-reward. In TA it is typically used to express the risk on a trade against the reward.

If a stock has an SP at 10p with a support at line at 9p it looks a buy because in this example, it bounced off 9p for the third time indicating it was not likely to go below that figure. If its not going down, its going up and again for simplicities sake lets say the next resistance line is 16p. So I buy at 10p with a stop loss at 8p (because if it does go to 8p it means the market has proved me wrong.)

So, I am risking 2p per share loss for potential 6p per share gain, therefore the risk reward is 3-1

Again typically most traders will not enter a trade unless it is 3-1 r/r as we don't expect to win every one, but if we win at least 2 out of every 3, then we will make money over the long term.

That's why a chartist can be bullish about a stock (say BH), but then that very same day it lurches down, breaks an important support line and then literally overnight the Chartist is now bearish on BH.

It may look to the outsider a somewhat flip flop attitude but all it is, is when the facts change so does my opinion.... to paraphrase someone or other...

Thats why to me, it get tedious when you keep wanting to make it so personal and are so seemingly happy to bring any example you can find where a trade was unsuccessful.

So was I "right" on ODX? Yes I think technically, but you would have had to move fast to profit from it and as it never made the 58p target so a small loss would, under money management stop loss rules, probably have ensued.

I bet on the short term and only care about the SP. You bet long term on the company. I've tried both and prefer TA.

Each to his own

Morning Bert, Its fair that you remark about my "negativity" bias in your post and equally fair broadly conflating investing/trading with more general typical human reaction. That was my fault in not being clearer.

However just for clarity, it is correct to say I err on the side of caution in my posts about stocks (but this does not particularly transfer into other aspects of my life)

The reason I do post more cautious (stock) remarks (which are then often misunderstood as "negative"), is because this game is all about capital protection. If you lose all your money on a stock then you are out of the game for maybe good, or at least a long time (and that's when the best opportunity in the world tends to present itself!! :0)) (Also, I assume posters who have bought a particular stock have already looked at the plus points and maybe not given quite as much attention to the potential pitfalls, as that would be a very natural human reaction, in my exoerience)

So yes, I do urge people to realise the downside because its there. Anyone who has done this for a while, all have their own stories of over commitment, or things being announced which hurt the SP so unexpectedly as to dumbfound one.

I try to be objective rather than positive or negative because those 2 emotions don't actually get one very far, in this endeavor. However, most posters want to express themselves in these two redundant formats and it colours their judgment, both of the reading of others posts and therefore potentially either misunderstanding what the poster was saying or outright dismissal of what might be useful info.

Anyway just some musings on a Sunday Morning. ATB

Bert, ignoring IPO's, the only reason we buy stocks is to make money. And not just money but as much money as we can. None of it goes to the company in question. This is nothing to do with BH. No SP is ever much to do with the company it represents.

The game is rigged, of course it is. How can it not be when money is involved?

Nothing will change. (thats not cynical but just understanding the way its been forever.

Really, Greed & Fear are the 2 most powerful emotions and people will do a lot when sufficiently motivated by either or both of those two suckers. (and not just money but the most wanted possession of all which is power. (And that often means money.

Its just a sense of scale for the individual

Everything is black and white... sure there are shades of grey but ultimately one shade is darker than the other and you are back to black & white.

I didn't say making the decisions was easy but once you clearly know what you want or even dislike least, then I find it pretty straight forward. (imo DYOR)

You are rigging the game in your own way but doing more research and diffing up a company who's under researched and... Bingo. Is that fair?

Hi Bert,

You say its not that black & white but how is it not?

These companies you mention are listed on the less regulated AIM market . So if you think its rigged or at best dubious at times, then simply don't invest in Aim companies. No one has a gun pointing at their head forcing them too. There are hundreds of other companies in the FTS index to choose from.

(And it's not like BH has been a great investment over the last year or two!)

Having said all that my experience of stock picking is ultimately there is a lot of luck involved. (there is a lot to be said for tracker funds! :0))

Bert, shorting often again polarises opinion.

Going short or long is seen as perfectly acceptable in large markets where its impossible to rig the price and where you can always get in or out at any price you want. (Typically that would be bond markets).

As soon as you get into markets where the big houses, in buying or selling, can unduly influence the SP then yes, dirty tricks will be used from time to time.

So here's the thing.

If an individual believes AIM (as a market) to be a rigged game where there is Market manipulation then.... wait for it......don't invest in AIM companies.

Certainly any share or market that is not sufficiently liquid and large enough to be beyond MM, then don't trade it (or if you do, be aware that the chances of success are reduced).

That then leaves LTB&H.

If a company is "sound" then shorts, even if they are successful in the short term, won't be around long and in hindsight it will look just like a temporary price dip.

If the price, say BH as an example, has a sharp decline over a longer period it probably means something went askew, and that the SP would have fallen anyway as the info became more public, even though it was shorted at the time.

In other words BH was likely to fall as all growth stocks do when the model falters.

It does not mean BH won't recover, and in fact that is the most likely outcome over time.

The short in this case, really, in the great scheme of things is irrelevant.

But as I said previously , imo, these BB's tend to exaggerate the minute and make a bigger deal of events than they actually are.

So if you understand AIM to be too unregulated and suspect to bad practise then don't buy AIM stocks. If you are going to, then perhaps look at a longer time horizon. (But obviously LTB&H has its own risks too.)