Member Info for wyndrum

If its not worth an RNS could they not put it in twitter? eg "ABDX batch validation successfully completed and we are just waiting for HUA and and re-instatement to business users. Everything in place!"

You have to wonder if he deliberately wants a crappy SP...

Zen, I think for this Govt, all testing per se (not particularly AVCT) is simply too expensive an option to continue with, relative to other options.

Vaccines are 1-2 a year? How many times would you expect to take an lft test per year?

And is there any point in having large scale testing without track and trace?

This govt balled it up sure, no argument, but it cost them £37b! for what? people still will get it.

Vaccines are not stopping transmission but they are having a dramatic affect on outcomes and hospitalisation. Hence the drive to keep that in the public's mind

Now we see emergency approval of an anti-viral. Why? because again, it will reduce illness and death from covid further. This will help to free up hospital beds in the NHS.

So govt policy looks to be, not about constraining the virus but combatting it once you have it to reduce harmful outcomes.

This is all pretty obvious.

The next question then is: Is UK policy likely to be a blue print for the RoW? If other countries go the same way then demand for testing will fall away. If other countries see merit in testing on a large scale then its game on again.

None of the various delays (or most anyway, can be laid at AVCT's door, but the obvious (to me) conclusion is, the govt is no longer interested in (any) testing currently

My observation wildstar, is that there are very few posts that actually rebutt my assumptions or defend their own assumptions.

However there are dozens and maybe hundreds of posts a week telling me simply not to post.

I explained my difference of opinion to Sarah's and refuted some of her claims. She wished me a good day rather than explain how she arrives at her conclusion.

I don't know what she means by mid term, I don't know how she can be confident in revenue for the test, given we have had nothing but delay and more delay, with no date as to when the test will be available, we have no idea of what demand will be for the AVCT test and no idea of profit per test.

She can by all means express her view but given those gaps in all our knowledge of the LFT, then I would not put any more weight on her view than anyone else's.

Its just a guess, there is no data that I know of to support her view.

What is exciting is AVA6000 but she was not prepared to take that into account when looking at AVCT. (I found that odd, but thats just me).

I think the hiatus and indeed recent fall (which should not be happening as we close in on Spud) is due to the delay. Only a few days ago it was mid Nov, with results before Xmas, now its end of November which suggests Jan for results.

Expert (as I now am in all things drill related ( :0)) one must always expect slippage in datelines.

Its frustrating but CEO's don't seem to work on the Judeo/Christian calendar that the rest of us do, (that, or they are just crap at forecasting dates......)

hey ho more opportunities to top up I s'pose.....

if any of you need to take a moment and think about the fun of blocking out views you don't want to hear:

When I posted on Monday (before the Tuesday RNS) in response to PL75's view when he said "assuming £1 profit a test they're doing ok at the moment. £1m a month profit is a decent start and certainly material when compared to £0."

I replied with "...We don't know the sales and we don't know the profit. "

The fact is he got 17 recs...( don't care about the recs per se, just 17 people here thought that was a good enough post to rec.)

Within 24 hours my analysis (sorry Ceesor, what can you do...) proved to be accurate as AVCT confirmed that not selling the test in the UK is not making a material difference to their income.

Yet many here seem content, happy and enthusiastic in not hearing counter views. This example would contradict that argument i would suggest.

hmmm... not a great start and this shaping up to be a key day.

This level (105p) as a close of day number is as important as the previous intra day lows of around 100p.

Thing about Jupiter is that they have had many opportunities to get out at good profit, They have not done so, even when there have been some quite sizeable rallies eroding those profits they have stood firm and all they have actually done is increase their position.

Whether or not they are quite as dumb as some here suggest is not so far supported by the overall SP action.

well done Stoodge you are forcing the SP up!

I am guessing the next RNS will be something along the lines of " due to more advanced 2d seismic studies we have identified a very promising area" etc etc etc. thats when we get the pop i think.. hopefully it continues to climb up a bit from this (7p) low base before hand

Me too Aim, (there is a certain amount of support from the chart too, but I am like you, aware that this can pop.) atb

Well, its starting to get exciting again.....

Stoodge, did you try bioserve as a supplier?

Stoodge. You post in a very factual way. How do you know this?

Why if they have huge manufacturing capability, are they waiting for "new" batches to become available.

Why didn't AVCT mention this? there is only an NDA re: HUA isn't there? Its not in Medusa's interest to have a lower than necessary avct SP.

Why would demand outstripping supply wanted to be kept secret?

Danger, potential discussion on horizon:

OPH says, " don't think Jupiter are closing their short today. I think they have a different target in mind based on the opening price at which they started shorting and a bit of basic TA -"

Its difficult to see beyond 100p from a TA perspective as thats the lowest its been of 18 months and has revisited it a number of times and bounced up

I guess you could go back pre-covid to 50p but the problem with that from a TA pov, is its long long time ago.

And that was before the company raised £45m odd to refinance the company and have had milestone payments in collaborations and have a trial of the big value driver underway and have test that is certified to sell (albeit held up in the UK today).

Anything is possible but unless they have some inside info on AVA then this looks to be about as good as it gets. (They may be gambling on AVA failing, that would do it, but given they have/had good profit from this short and stuck with it through the rallies it would make sense to close and bank it I think).

I don't think people who are using a legal financial instrument should burn in hell just because they had the gumption and nerve to see a fall coming where Oph didn't. (That seems to be taking sour grapes to a whole new level)

And seriously, the SP would still have gone down whether it was shorted or not because the LFT news flow (since the short was taken out) has justified that view, namely the SP still had LFT revenue priced in and therefore without justification then it had to fall.

As always its important to disassociate the SP from the company.

Well thats nice, we all agree, so we are either all rats or none of us are.

Hello Ripley you talking to me again? or was it Dan?

its good news if the short is closing (or already closed) don't you think?

I'm not inclined to increase my holding any further just now as its a bit to uncertain for my taste.

If Dan is right (and I think it could very well be true), and we do find out its gone through then the SP should bounce and it will be unlikely the SP will be around these levels at open tomorrow, but in fact higher.

If they are still buying (closing the short), then that just keeps pressure on the SP to either drop less quickly or maintain or indeed increase, but with the spread all 3 scenario's, again its unlikely that any further drop of any significance is coming.

I hindsight this looks, as Dan pointed out, well executed in terms of them predicting the Govt would miss its own 20 day registration timeline and therefore have this date pencilled in to buy at 100p to close . esp as that is where the SP bottomed out this morning.

As I say I am happy currenttly with my percentage of my portfolio in AVCT and am content to see how this continues to pan out over the next weeks and months.

(Honestly, do you really think I have the power to manipulate the SP? Really?)

Dan, you think they will get it done in a day? Not spread over a couple of days? (I mention this because often news is reported more widely the day after it drops which can trigger some further )selling?

Interesting point Dan. We shall see, but the logic is sound. Well spotted

Well done Prof.

I am keen to see where the AVCT SP lands because as we are all starting to realise, if LFT is in the SP for free as it were, then it at least removes the potential of a slipping SP as HUA seemingly endlessly, awaits approval.

Mind you it keeps the pressure on AVA6000 being successful, but at some stage it was always going to come down to that anyway.

Many posters have said since covid arrived, that its about the cancer aside and that the LFT was always a side show.

Pl75 if you "researched" my posts you will find I have only ever been critical of the LFT test.

The scepticism turned out to be well placed.

The irony is that you have come to EXACTLY the same conclusions as I have, but by not reading my posts, arrived at them some time later.

Which makes your posts to everyone else to ignore me, somewhat amusing as we now basically hold the same views.

Unfortunately I fear the irony will be lost on you.

(Sorry Ceesor I am not trying to do a "I told you so post, (honestly) but just highlighting that PL75 has broadly the same outlook as I do in the LFT. Where we disagree still I think, is the demand for it.)

Many thanks ST.... (Roll on $120 then! ha ha)