Member Info for shandypants2

Pass - the shopping behaviours for many have changed for good, if online is working why go back to the hassle of walking/driving to the shops?
Other than the Primark's who don't do online the impact of lockdowns will be minimal. Incidentally we have not been in a lockdown for over 6 months.

at these prices it does seem oversold. Valued at £38m of which £8m is cash, on track for over £4m profit and no debt. Reasonably sticky customers although clearly acquiring and retaining new customers is the issue.

he can't lose any shares - they are his regardless of whether he works for the company. If he had any share options they will be 'lost' though unless the conditions of the share options allowed him to exercise them prior to his departure. As he is no longer on the BOD his shareholding and future changes to it don't need to be published (as he owns less than 3%).

H1 2020 was £3m so anything above £4m will be ok IMHO. £4.5m would be great, a 50% increase.

EBITDA will be interesting. Would be great if this could be positive or if not just a small loss (was - £900k last year)

this board is at an all time low.

I agree with comments re 20p - i'm topping up at this level.

The delay in the spin offs has been frustrating but they were always a bonus - the core business remains strong . Some of the comments directed at posters such as Elrico are a disgrace. If you don't agree with someone just state your opinion and move on, or better still just ignore them.

Jack Daniels has a new side kick and unfortunately it seems to have invigorated him. Best to filter both

costs, including marketing spend will be interesting. Whilst revenue growth is healthy costs increased a lot last year too. Ideally, the revenues need to be growing at a much higher % than the costs.

Just checked and last year this was in early Feb, so i expect similar timing this year.

Noticed that GDM did £750k rev between Oct and Dec 2020 alone (v £1.6k for the 12 month period).
I know we were in lockdown last year for much of that period but with more websites, more visitors etc the 2021 numbers should be a lot higher. Stock informer remains the unknown - think 4 months revenues will be in the H1 numbers.

but burning through c£1m every 6 months, so by this summer the position will not look so good.

Yes, saw this - must bode well for stock informer as that's exactly what they do, finding gaming consoles suppliers/stockists when supply is limited. As CEO previously stated when stock is available Stock Informer traffic rises massively and they have days when £15k plus is generated (at 80% profit margin).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59992210

Green - i think your figures are both realistic and quite conservative.

As is the norm with companies making forward looking projections there is usually a 10% margin either way. I think CF wants to say we are significantly above target at some point this year so anything over £55m will justify this and of course he is aware of the current pipeline and position of negotiations etc. IMHO the 2022 £50m was pretty much nailed on when announced.

Could also get a nice surprise such as assisting/consulting with a foreign CS which wouldn't impact UK capacity but could be highly profitable.

presentation now added to STX's website

https://www.shieldtherapeutics.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Shield-Corporate-Deck_Dec2021.pdf

Blah - Green is looking forward, not backwards. 2021 rev £40m (were £22m in H1) and Green is estimating £60m for 2022, so a 50% increase.
£50m has been guided for 2022 but we already have over 90% of this in the bag and that excludes any UK Govt covid work, so Green has upped this to £60m.

All seems quite sensible and realistic to me

A positive writeup, although clearly by a paid broker.

However, now the extra money is banked and the new facility is up and running it's time to start delivering. 1st revenues from EV contract should hopefully see a positive SP reaction as would additional contracts.

Come on BOD after a poor 2021 we deserve a good 2022

enlarged trial until early 2022 - maybe 3 months? So until early March 2022? All the signs are good, but i suppose nothing is guaranteed in life

YE2021 had rev of £10.2m, gross profit of £5.8m, wages/admin £3.6m and marketing spend of £4m so c£1.8m loss.
For 2022 if rev is similar but at a higher gross margin lets say gross profit is £6.1m. If wages and admin are similar that leaves £3.5m for marketing spend. Hopefully the new strategy could see maybe a 20% reduction in spend for similar results so maybe £3.2m leaving c£300k profit.

This would not be a bad result after a terrible couple of years.

good summary Theai. Looking back ARR was £6.3m in 2020, £5.6m in 2021 and now expected to be £5.1m at 2022 YE (30/4). So essentially a 10% reduction for each of the last 2 years. Really poor.

I am a little surprised this hasn't dropped more today as there were few positives in this RNS, however, hopefully the turn around can start from here.

The large placing last year was in hindsight fantastic timing so at least the cash position is healthy

is a placing required soon?
£2.5m cash at sept 2021 but losing c£1m every 6 months. So cash being burnt and progress whilst being made is slow

I agree re Nuthing. Disappointing that lockdown 2020 coincided with its launch although i don't think Superdrug has done much in store support. We were told there is a big cross sell with tanning customers too so it could piggy back on ST.
If Roots and Nuthing spend is reduced there is a risk that Boots and SD may stop or at least reduce shelf space - usually you need to support in store promotion either with marketing spend or simply by buying shelf space.

Amazon news was perhaps the biggest unknown - now the 3rd biggest earner. However, this could be at a loss to STs own website as i notice Amazon often sells for a fiver less than the ST website equivalent.

from the info provided it is difficult to see if H1 performance has turned a corner. Clearly revenue is down but previous management focussed on revenue over profit so reducing heavy promotion loss making sales is a quick win.
Comparing to 2020 H1 is perhaps not a good yardstick as last year was a disaster (£1m loss) so looking at 2019 is a better comparison.
In 2019 IDP did £5.1m rev at a healthy gross margin of 60% and yet still made a loss of £350k.
This was mainly as marketing spend was £1.8m for the period.
If 2021 has gross margin of low 60% then gross profit could be c£2.3m. From that wages and admin will be £1.5m minimum so that leaves £800k. It will be interesting to see the current marketing spend - it will have been reduced but by how much? I doubt it will have halved so i suspect H1 will be another loss, hopefully low 6 figures.

Muggins - if you are right why are you still here (and you only post on a down day)?

In terms of a fundraise i think the finances are the best they've ever been. No placing in 2022 is my prediction, in fact cash on 31/12/22 will be higher than now.