Member Info for shandypants2

i like the GDM table on the attached. Really simplifies it. So 20m users at 20p is £4m revenue but 30m at 30p is £9m (a 125% increase).

For H1 we were at 14m at 23p and we know users are increasing in H2. For 2023 30m users at 30p does not seem unrealistic based on the growth over the last 18 months or so.

I'm guessing its the $5.2m ARR RNSed in Jan 2022 and 30% added on for 2022 growth.

ARR growth is encouraging but as mentioned previously we need revenues growing at a quicker rate than costs, however, happy to hold at these prices as it does look lowly valued

yes did a cheeky top up at 70p too. Results should see a tick up and i'm hoping a decent 2022 should see 100p. Not much to not like here - revenues and profits growing and a healthy cash position. Appears under the radar

cash is currently £900k and BIOM is loss making so it is definitely a concern. If revenue growth is achieved as expected things may be ok but how often do things always go to plan? What if a big order is achieved? The lag between manufacture and payment could be 3 to 6 months. A placing cannot be ruled out - let's see how things look at H1.

It would be good to get some updates on the plans for a malt whisky brand as this could be a good addition to the DIS brands. A decent single malt will never go out of fashion IMHO.
Below is the excerpt from last year's RNS

· Immediate and longer-term benefits for the Company through the Investment, including distilling, new product development and small batch bottling capability, a physical 'home' for the Company's Blackwoods and TRØVE brands and access to Ardgowan's Master Distiller, the renowned Max Macfarlane, to help produce an own brand malt whisky for the Company;

· The global malt whisky market is currently worth approximately US$7.7bn out of a total whisky market worth approximately US$74bn annually. The Directors believe there is significant scope for growth in the malt whisky market and see numerous benefits through adding malt whisky to the Company's product portfolio as well as through further collaborative agreements with Ardgowan;

Looking at BAR and their interims from yesterday i can see this is a struggling company. Both revenues and margins are significantly down, which is a big red flag.
They have a couple of decent brands and shelf space in some decent shops - Boots, Morrisons etc, but i can't see a clear strategy - too many brands that overlap, a basic online platform etc.
They do have a big cash pile but also a large pension deficit too which offsets a large chunk.
Agree CRL would be a much better pairing for IDP.

Really struggling to see why only 1 IDP NED is moving over. Maybe CEO doesn't want to play second fiddle and possibly same with Mark Ward - he bought a lot of his IDP shares in the 70s so maybe objected to the takeover. Pure speculation.
BAR BOD clearly need some new blood.

Due to the BAR drop in price again today i think the deal is now worth 36p (29p shares plus 7p cash). BAR shares are at an all time low, but there is reason for that.

Regarding IDP i really can't understand why they spend so much on marketing during the off peak period. £1.4m spend on just over £2m gross profit is madness. Looking back this has been steadily rising over the last few years. In 2017 H1 it was £700k with similar revenues, by 2019 it had more than doubled to £1.7m on minimal revenue growth. New BOD have not significantly addressed this or effectively used their large customer database - i have bought 3 separate brands regularly over the years but i get offered the same deals as new customers, i have never been sent say a discount code for example , which would be a really cheap thing to do

strange reaction from some re perfectly reasonable concerns about the cash position. DDDD has great potential but it needs money. The RNS today states they have sufficient money until Q4 2022 - well that's 1st Oct, so 5 months away today.
This is the BOD telling you that a placing will be needed in the next 6 months at the latest.

Lemon - results were poor. Comparing with last year isn't a good comparison as they were a car crash this time last year.
Yes cash in H1 always declines and is made up in H2 as inventory is sold, but these figures show cash is a big issue.

As per cashflow statement - net cash used in operating activities was down £1,833k - however, borrowing of £936k came in making overall cash burn c£1m. This is a misleading figure.

Also trade payables are £1.1m more than receivables, so as of 31/12/21 IDP had to pay out an additional net £1.1m from the cash in bank (£1.3m).

So essentially it has burnt through the £4m placing money very quickly.

current merger value is now c41p a share based on BAR current price. When CRL was rejected it valued IDP at 44p, and that was before the £4.5m placing.
IDP has no choice - it has burned through the cash at an alarming rate. Cash burn in last 6 months was £1.8m as per cashflow statement and the current level includes a £900k loan.

good to see GDM continuing to progress - 13.9m users for H1 (assume that is an average over the 6 months), 15m for Jan , 16m for Feb and it says expected 17m for March.

At these prices it is a definite buy, however, it was well over 3p a month or so ago, so the damage of the recent placing will take time to rectify.

H1 numbers show that whilst cash was £1.5m at 31/12 trade payables were £1.1m greater than trade receivables so effectively £400k spare funds.
This must have been known well before this date so why more money wasn't raised at 4p when a placing was done in late August 2021 is beyond me.
CEO has shown that whilst the new strategy appears the right one from a cash management perspective he and the CFO should be ashamed of their performance. It is clear why they were happy to allow cheap warrants too - always useful to keep the cash figure ticking over

on V o x markets - link never works for V o X. It appears 2 of the products are profitable, Satago now has the deal with Lloyds and the one remaining one Playstacks whilst loss making has the most potential. Not much not to like here. Sum of the parts definitely worth more than the SP.
The placing at a small discount should get us to profitability in 2023.

Question - Lloyds will be investing £5m in Satago - will that money hit our bank account??

IMHO 2 years ago DIS was in a bad position. The only brand doing well was Redleg - 31/3/20 YE accounts for Blackwoods and Blavod showed a big decline despite the gin boom and duty free (for blavod) not really impacted by covid at that time. DIS is careful not to split revenue by brand but RL appears to be well over 50%. Without RL the other revenues wouldn't cover costs and that's before any marketing spend.

So that £10m would be burnt through pretty quickly as we are competing against massive companies in the gin and vodka space.

Today Blackwoods is in a better space and appears to be considered a premium gin brand, and we also have the new Vodka brand. Whisky is coming soon. Blavod will never be a big seller IMHO - pointless throwing a lot of money at this.

I would be more comfortable selling RL in the not too distant future as i can now see alternatives. 2 years go i don't think that was the case. Just my opinion

Haggis - i remember the comment about building brands.

IMHO the issue is/was that the only decent brand was RedLeg , so to sell that off they would be left with a shell (a bit like IDP with Skinny Tan).
Blackwoods was struggling a few years ago (despite the gin boom) but that seems to have been resolved and there are clearly plans to grow it further. This could have decent value in a few years. The new vodka brands are small appear to be growing nicely so lets see what happens there. The Whisky option via the new distillery is also interesting.

But as of today the fact that RedLeg is probably worth more than the current market cap shows how little value the other brands currently have.

H1 numbers should be out in the next week or so and hopefully there will be some positive comments on H2 performance as the new marketing strategy beds in and the country opens up - both the weather and lack of travel restrictions are encouraging. This has slipped from c40p in the last few months on no news.
Just took advantage of C+L 3 for 2 offer currently via the website.

very solid results, but unspectacular IMHO.

I think the SP got ahead of itself after being tipped in the Mail last year. Based on revenues, albeit growing nicely and the low EBITDA being generated it still seems a little over valued.

However, in an exciting, growing sector so happy to hold

Thompi - i am definitely not CF's biggest fan, but i have met him in person and i think he is intelligent and motivated to add value to Orph. Some of his comments regarding the spin off timings were clearly wrong and i think he was stupid to make as these things have so many moving parts. Similarly, comments such as 'one contract per month' are also ridiculously optimistic as anyone who has dealt with large companies knows there are things outside of your control.

However, i also remember him implying ORPH should have a market cap of 6 to 8 times revenue due to their 'moat'. I think the industry average is 3.4 times revenue. Personally i took this as a pinch of salt as it's clearly just a CEO talking up his/her own company.

Ultimately the point i'm making is that CF didn't force me to buy shares in ORPH. I did it based on a number of different factors. Some of things i thought would happen have materialised, others haven't. CF is not responsible for all of those that haven't happened e.g UK govt contract delays, sentiments around covid stocks etc. Yes the spin off delays are on him, but the opportunities are still there. Personally, whilst the core business continues to grow i'm happy to sit on my hands and the spin offs, when they arrive, will be a nice added bonus

Actually looking a the interim results that were recently released cash may be a little tight. The EBITDA figure and cash generated were both positive which is good, however, the balance sheet is less strong.

Comparing the YE results nightcap had current assets of £14.3m v current liabilities of £11.5m. At H1 it is now assets of £11.7m v £13.7m liabilities - so in the short term we have a £2m shortfall (and a 6 month negative change of c£4m) . Clearly not all these payments need to be made at once but it's not a good indicator of a supposedly cash generating company.
It will be interesting to see if this is mentioned in the Investor Meets presentation today

The SP means little? Maybe in the short term, but as this as halved in the last 6 or so months it would be naive to ignore it.

I like BRSD - good products in a growth sector, but it's not just about growth - it's about getting to profitability. Based on the last financials it appears the costs are increasing at the same or greater level than the revenues. If this continues then the recent placing will need to be repeated next year.

I, and it appears the market, want to see this loss come down as revenues increase.

Agreed DS, we've had 12 months of claims that CF over promised and now he's a little more reserved the same people claim he's being vague etc. Personally i think promise is a massive exaggeration, yes he was overly positive and his timescales were off, but surely you want a CEO/Chairman to talk up his/her company and be excited by its prospects. Surely no one buys just based on this 'evidence' - actually it appears they have and have spend the last 12 months whinging about it.

Anyway IMHO a steady, if unspectacular, presentation. The core business is healthy and Mo appears to be looking at exploiting additional opportunities.

It was good that the weighted pipeline was clarified. So the £75m excludes all 2022 reported revenues and is weighted based on the probability of the contract being signed - so a £10m contract with a 60% probability of being completed will account for £6m of this £75m. So the pipeline is clearly much bigger than the the reported £75m , however, ORPH estimate that £75m is expected to be completed - clearly this number could go up or down but it is better than just saying we have a pipeline of x without any detail.

this article is rubbish - the placing was at .1p (a 1/10th of a penny) not 10p or £0.10 as it quotes. He owns a few hundred grand in MSYS. The total share price of the company is c£7m. The share price is still higher than the placing price - just!