Member Info for shandypants2

i have no issuing do a placing to strength the balance sheet and fund expansion, but there is a time and place. That time was 6 months ago when they bought Stock Informer. At that point they could have raised another £2m at 4p with ease - i tried to buy via PB that day but the offer was already completed within about 10 minutes.
In August surely they would have known that a few income streams were delayed, or could be delayed, and that they were due to pay EpicStream as part of the purchase arrangements they RNSed in Dec 2020!!
Instead we've had a car crash of the SP over the last 2 weeks.

Also it's not just £2.7m it's potentially double that as there are warrants attached. Doing these at the same price is also just ridiculous. Why not at a 50% premium to the placing price and potentially 1 warrant for every 2 shares? That could still raise c £2m.
As we stand now a placing participant could sell their placing shares at a quick 10% profit and then sit on their hands for the next 12 months and see if the company and the SP improve. If so they have a risk free purchase price. A joke of a win win.
The only positive is that the company is in the best position its been in for years and should be profitable in a few months. It will take time but i can see this being back to c4p (£50m market cap) in 12 to 18 months.

very disappointed with how this fundraise has been handle - similar to the one back in April 2020 when GFIN was desperate, today they are such a stronger position (or so we thought).
2 weeks ago the SP was over 3p so to raise at 1.25p is poor. Clearly those on the inside have been selling in advance of the placing.
Then we've raised £2.7m, not the £1m, that was initially RNSed so c20% extra shares/dilution, and also warrants at the same price means another 20% dilution over the next 1 or 2 years.
The BOD seem to like warrants as it keeps the cash position regularly topped up. The only loser here is the long suffering shareholder.

cash at 30/6/21 was over £7.5m and H2 was EBITDA positive. Clearly there will be a lag between orders, invoicing and receiving the money but i would be very surprised if any funding is required in 2022. Interims also mentioned access to £1.5m of extra funding, if required - i'm guessing this ws included to reassure that money was not an issue.
Many AIM companies have had a poor 9 months from a SP perspective, so DVRG isn't alone on this front

stt1 - please stick to the advfn board where you seem to post the same anti CF stuff repeatedly. No need to copy and paste it over here.

and also the placing in Jan has strengthened the balance sheet allowing for the marketing etc to be continued to support the growth.

It is just the SP that hasn't been so great in Q1!!!

CF and Mo are doing an Investor Meets presentation tomorrow. Not expecting anything that wasn't said last week but hopefully it will keep the recent momentum going. The Q & A could be the most interesting part of the evening.

https://twitter.com/Starpunchshares/status/1501918241165299716

Just noticed this Q & A with the CEO. States placing will be done at the current share price or at minimal discount.

I've seen speculation from .75p up to 2p. Based on CEO comments (when SP was c1.25p) it would appear to be somewhere in the 1.25p to 1.4p range

thanks for the advice JH. I did listen to the interview and thought the CEOs response to that question was a little vague - their expansion plans were known about almost 2 years ago and as they raised only 6 months ago during the middle of covid that seemed the obvious time to build up a bit of contingency and strengthen the balance sheet.
This share has lost 60% of it's value in the last week, and was falling, before the RNS, so i think i am perfectly entitled to express my displeasure.

I agree with a lot of your post, however, if you exclude Stock Informer, which was purchased in August last year (£400k rev in 3.5 months at c80% gross margin), then the performance is no better than average.

The rest of GDM has risen from £1m to £1.2m, for example, is ok, but not fantastic. Similarly the loss would be nearer last year without the SI contribution. The timing of certain events hasn't helped GFIN and small companies will always be impacted more by these things, however, that is the role of the BOD - anticipate these peaks and troughs and mitigate.
I fail to see why back in August when the 4p fundraise was done they didn't go for a higher amount.

Agreed, but i think we have been massively played here. Why not raise in early Feb when the SP was c4p? Why wait until the market is all over the place only 4 weeks later? Or even raise more back in late August when there was good momentum.
As has been said the SP has been slowly declining for a few weeks (before the war) so clearly people in the know knew what was going on.
Similarly why tell the market before the placing, the SP only ever goes one way, and why issue mates rates warrants too.
Really disappointed with GFIN BOD.

a steady H1 update, if a little underwhelming.

Cash looks ok and no doubt includes expenditure on the couple of strategic partnerships that were made in the period and H2 seems to have started well. With the recent acquisition bedding in, things are looking positive.

Still massively under the radar.

i always thought the 2022 revenue estimates were a little on the high side, especially as covid is still impacting parts of the business but today's update is very disappointing. It seems we will do a raise to 'mates' at 1p with a 1p warrant - so we are back to where we were at a full years ago yet the business is in a much better shape. Considering we raised at 4p only a few months ago this is poor.

GDM is growing steadily but take off the £400k from Stock Informers and it's not so great (and we paid £5m for this business BTW).

Cash was £1.5m on 31/12/22 but is now at £800k without any explanation.

One for the bottom draw - although at these prices there is no other option!

Hi Roley, i would hope H1 revenue is at least £4m as it was £3m last year and we need a decent increase if we are to hit the YE target.
For Stock Informer i remember the interview when CEO mentioned £15k-£17k days, and also he said there were also £2k to £3k days.
I think it was integrated mid Sept so i've assumed 100 days at £5k average - £500k. I think 80% of this is profit.
Would be great to be EBITDA positive, or a small loss only for the period too.

wow, wasn't expecting that response - it's like an advert for Fox News. The only thing missing was his support for QAnon.
I wasn't aware that anybody thought net zero actually meant zero carbon in the atmosphere as opposed to offsetting/absorbing the carbon e.g. by planting more trees.
Anyway, lets get back to ORPH.
A reasonable RNS - revenues as per what they said in Sept and cash a little higher so all ok there. Mentions EBITDA positive, would also have like the overall profitable to be mentioned too. Increasing capacity would surely only be happening if the contract pipeline is quite strong , so hopefully new contracts will drop in the next few weeks/months.
On the negative, no mention of spin offs and i think he mentioned difficult market conditions - not sure what specifically this relates to

Ash, i'm no great fan of Elric - some of the info he posts is informative but it's difficult to take a Trump supporting climate denier seriously - however, in answer to your question anyone holding this company (or ramper in your books) is merely on the sideline waiting for news. You joined only last month but have posted over 70 posts in that period - so c 3 a day.
How many times can you say i don't like CF and i think he has massively exaggerated things and missed deadlines? You have succeeded in reducing the quality of this board to an ADVFN equivalent. Don't bother replying

i was a little underwhelmed with the presentation and it didn't really add anything to what we already know.

Essentially the pre launch work takes up to 2 years and STX tried to do it in less than 6, hence the last 6 months has been taken up doing much of the prep work rather than actually selling.
CEO again stated awareness of Accrufer was very low and this needed addressing (now at 65%).
CEO did state that the strategy is the correct one, it just takes time.

Unfortunately with the cash position time is critical. This question was poorly answered, not helped that the CEO's wifi dropped at this point. Essentially they said it is being closely monitored.

There were no numbers mentioned that weren't in the recent RNS.

So essentially we are moving in the right direction, however, how steep the revenue curve is is unclear.

FFS topped up at just under 3p yesterday and already 10% down!!! I think the sitting on your hands approach is best at the moment.

As Ward is a NED he has no day to day involvement with the company. As Lord says he is clearly committed based on the number of shares he has purchased and continues to do so.
H1 results will be interesting from a cash perspective (we already know the revenue), but as ST is a seasonal brand the April to June period will be key. External factors may impact on this e.g. the weather, covid and the current war situation.
Just as an example Holland and Barrett are currently being boycotted as they are owned by a Russian - i know this doesn't impact IDP, but it's just an example of how things can move quite quickly and are outside of the BOD's control.

i do agree, news would be appreciated and is overdue, just saying the company doesn't always RNS updates.

Looking at other companies with reasonable updates but with a few forward looking concerns (ITV, Browns etc) getting hampered by 20% may silence is best at the moment.!!

Looking at the Hardman report they estimate there are 550 accrufer users now and for 2022 this is estimated to increase to 11k and in 2023 45k and 2024 120k. With each user generating $1k (4 months at $250 p.m) the revenues are clear.
I'm not sure where the 550 figure comes from (i thought we had 2,500 users, or maybe this is individual prescriptions??), but doing some quick excel sums, if we use this starting number and increase the users by 10% per month - so 605 in Jan 2022, 665 in Feb etc i get a total of 12k users in 2022, 40k in 2023 and 127k in 2024. So 'all' we need is a 10% increase per month for the next few years.
Is this achievable? Well we only have got 10% of the 4k target clinicians to prescribe the product so far, so we have another 3,600 to go after. The top 100 alone write 1,000 iron prescriptions per year . Getting 20% of this market is 20k alone.
Then there is the estimate that users will be on accrufer for 4 months. I think this is quite conservative. Many of the targeted customers have underlying health issues e.g. CKD, so i can see them needing iron supplements for years, maybe not continuous, but certainly more than just one off courses.
What we do need to see now is firm evidence that the prescription numbers are increasing every month