Member Info for shandypants2

Garf - good point re increase in gross margin. As IHT is the main area of growth hopefully this should increase further - previous c18% was very low, guessing some of this is linked to small trials etc so once larger orders are made the GP % should increase substantially.

Re revenues, obviously the delay in the Arrivals order didn't help H2 rev - as still quite small i think the invoicing is a little lumpy so difficult to draw too many conclusions.

Stonehouse facility - could really drive revenues, however, unclear at this stage when it will be utilised. Hopefully they wouldn't have built it if they couldn't see potential orders in the pipeline.

Poker - the PE will be calculated using PAT (so c£900k last year) after all items are taken off, including exceptional charges (which wasn't all non cash BTW some related to acquisitions costs etc ) . That's why it looks so high at c80 based on the current SP.
Who knows what exceptional we will be this year - it won't be zero

PBT was less than £2m last year and PE is calculated on PAT so amount was even lower.

PBT for YE 31/5/22 will be c£5m as per news today, so with a valuation of £78m that's nearer PE of 15, maybe 20 if using PAT.

In the 2020 accounts when rev for FY was c£6m it stated "No one customer represents more than 10% of group turnover for the accounting period under review and the top 4 customers accounted for 24.1% of Group turnover in 2020".
So it would appear we are working with maybe 25 customers, some of which are very large.
If we can get another 2 or 3 big orders similar to the Arrival one out of these 25, then this could fly.

i feel i need to reply Rivaldo as else you are the only one on this board!!

It is a shame Croma don't seem to do a H1 trading update and only update when the accounts are completed.

Looking at H1 last year the numbers were steady, but not great, so hopefully YoY there will be a decent uplift.

As you say there is little not to like here - a conservative valuation yet a strong balance sheet, decent profits and a dividend.

Only slight negative is the high BOD wages - £260k for the CEO seems very high IMHO

as current value is £32m that makes a nice 10 x EBITDA. For a fast growing company in a hot sector a valuation of 20 x EBITDA is still quite conservative so a 100% upside if definitely possible, as long as the numbers are hit and cash is managed.

current cash position makes no mention of WeShop which is disappointing. Maybe it was only £1.5m as they know a few million will arrive in the next few months. If not how long will this money last?? At least placing was at 14p so not heavily discounted.
As i've said a few times on here whilst revenues are growing nicely so are costs, at a similar rate.
This needs to be addressed.

3 year EV contract is supposedly worth up to £54m. Q1 and Q2 order for £3.5m so maybe £7m for full year. If this is repeated in year 2 and 3 it's c£20m less than half of the stated value.

I know this could be ramped up but a little disappointed with the initial volumes. I thought there may be a bit of a big bang e.g. 1st order c£10m.

However, with current IHT rev of less than £1.5m (so £6.5m other) an extra £7m in 2022 would give us c£15m rev in total, a near 100% increase

where is the WeShop money? If this is imminent can't see why a placing is required. If it's not imminent, why not?

fair point. I think there was a £100k milestone/exclusivity payment due in H2 a few years ago that may be an ongoing annual payment. Obviously when total rev was 6 figures this was material. Now we are over £2m it's more of a nice to have, but i agree, some of these royalty payments may just 'drop' so are difficult to predict.

agree good results, but PE is and always has been very high. To justify this both rev and profit must continually increasing at a significant rate. Any slightly negative news will be poorly received, as it has been today. IMHO this could hit £20

A strange interview . Lawrence looked quite bored - admitted trying to boost the SP prior to a fundraise!!! At one point he was asked a question (which are usually pre-agreed via this format) and he said the details are all in the RNS!! So why bother coming on??

Unfortunately this share is mirroring LR's hairline

early Feb last year, so hopefully in the next week. Good numbers and steady progress will be welcome and hopefully confirmation of the c£9m rev for 2022 too (YE 30/6/22)

SOH was a little downbeat in that interview, or certainly not upbeat.
The rule of thumb is guidance can be 10% either way to be in line.
So if it was over £2.4m i think it would have been RNSed in Dec. It was not.
£2.3m ish will be ok with me and a positive 2022 outlook

i do like OTMP and i think their business model is far more sustainable than RM, however, i am a little concerned by both the last 2 financial updates - H1 and this week.
Last YE profits were great at £2.3m. H1 seemed to grow on this with £2.1m adjusted operating profit but actual operating profit at almost zero.
What is adjusted operating profit - is it EBITDA?? The biggest adjustment appears to be free shares offered to new estate agents. If so the number of new estate agents moving onto paid tariffs is quite low. This doesn't tally IMHO.
Then H2 was essentially forecast to breakeven?? Why? I though OTMP was fast growing i.e double digit growth.
I assume much of this is due to the current TV adverts, so marketing spend has increased in H2, but marketing spend is a standard cost so this should be budgeted and accounted for out of gross profits surely.
A fast growing company should not be expecting to breakeven in a period and then announce how well they are doing when the results are now slightly positive.
Still think this has potential and in comparison to RM is undervalued however the current PE is quite high so earnings must grow each year to justify this.

i agree to an extent. The govt narrative, which most of the media have picked up on, is that covid is on its way out and that the UK is in a better place than other countries.
The truth is somewhat different.
Yes omicron is less severe than delta (which was very severe) but more people get it, including kids, and the death rate, which is now almost ignored, is still frighteningly high (well over 1k per week).
As for comparisons with other countries if you ignore our overall death rate and the initial drop in GDP then you can pick a stat to back up your claim.
Unfortunately, there will probably be more variants, it is unclear how long the vaccines work for and much of the world is not vaccinated.
What this means for NCYT is less clear. The strategic review is underwhelming. Results are ok but both rev and margins are slightly less than guidance so you can't say they are great. The positives appear to be the decent cash position and the non UK % of revenues. However, for a French/UK company it is pretty poor than neither country's govt are currently buying.
How will be dispute with the UK Govt get resolved? No timescales etc

Hopefully just a few impatient flippers making a quick profit from the recent placing. No point selling at a loss??

New contracts would be lovely, however, just confirming that the first revenues from the EV contract have been invoiced/banked as per the previously RNS (see below) would be nice. I'm hoping Q1 2022 does not mean late March.

Trackwise Designs (AIM: TWD), a provider of specialist products using printed circuit technology, announces an extension and amendment to the Product Manufacture and Supply Agreement (the "Agreement") with a UK manufacturer of electric vehicles ("EV OEM"), originally announced on 18 September 2020.
Further to a change in the needs of the customer, the term of the Agreement has been extended from three to four years, with a significant increase in expected volumes and potential value. First material revenues from the contract are now expected in H1 2022 rather than 2021.

In the event all contracted volumes are achieved, the Agreement would now be worth up to £54 million over the period to 31 December 2024, an aggregate increase of £16 million over the original Agreement for up to £38 million.

unfortunately we appear to be in a slow drift phase due to a lack of news.

I did fear this when i read the slide re Reimbursements. Supposedly in the US about 30% are via commercials and a similar proportion via Medicaid rebate and it states thus far STX has focus on the commercials and for Medicaid STX "will begin additional focus on key states in
H2: 2022".
So immediately i thought a 1/3 of the payer market will not even be focused on until H2, and isn't H2 quite vague - i would prefer a Quarter to be quoted.

It appears i'm not alone. Come on Greg - give us some positive news!!

the £2.2m revenue is for YE 31/12/21 - we should get the number in the next week or so.

To my knowledge i've not seen any guidance for 2022 onwards. Happy to be corrected

i've heard it all now. Comparing covid deaths to shark attacks !!!

Who else is a shark meant to attack if you exclude surfers and swimmers?? As a fish it is limited to water so can by definition only attack people if they are in the water - namely swimmers and surfers.

Covid is most dangerous for people with underlying health conditions which is c20% of the population. If these people die are you saying it is the underlying health condition that has killed them and not the covid? Asthma is an underlying health condition BTW. And covid is not just about the death figures - there are c1.5m people suffering from long covid who get conveniently ignored.