Member Info for shandypants2

think it depends what they mean by revenue slippage into 2022. If the revenue deferred from 2021 comes in in Q1 2022 they may be ok, if it's later you are probably right.

May also depend on receiving a big order. These need money to be spent upfront as the revenue will lag by maybe 3 months

another positive interview from CEO on v o x markets last week - link never works.

All seems to be going well so hopefully H1 results will reflect this.

has CHF given up on looking for Copper in Cyprus now? I though the Island was one huge copper deposit, hence why a FTSE 100 company got on board. Clearly gold is good but i always thought that was the by product.

pointless RNS - surely a pointless comment. It clearly won't move the SP but shows the trial model ORPH utilise is both cost effective and gets results. At a minimum it is obvious PR to promote a success and may get a few other companies interested in using our services.

It's rare that i agree with Jack Daniels but i think the furlough excuse is poor. Merely referencing the poorly performing AIM market would be ok, but to blame it on a specific group of investors is just being too creative.
Good to see 20p being paid near the close - didn't think i'll be saying that a few months ago!!

big SP drop today - more than just standard market issues?? Well below recent placing price now

i like that stock informer (that made over £2m profit) in YE to March 2021 only had 17% rev from their US sites and no advertising revenue. GDM should be able to improve the US site ASAP and get some revenues from ads too.
As this was only bought in late Aug 2021 i don't think the 2022 numbers reflect this purchase.
CEO stated daily income ranges from £2k to £15k. If we said £5k on average at 80% margin then that's £4k profit per day.
The 4 months to xmas could therefore generate almost £500k profit, which could make GFIN EBITDA positive at H1.

Interesting post SI, thanks.

If the family did want this back in private hands, as has been suggested, surely this cannot be done at less than the top price in the last 12 months - if so that's c150p, so at current prices not a cheap option

Not sure how you can say it is media hype - if anything the govt has massively under reacted. South Africa played England in the rugby only 10 days ago so the new variant will already be in circulation in the UK.
From a RBG perspective the xmas period is a critical period and the timing couldn't be worse for the whole hospitality sector - an example below
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59463592

it's a good job Jack Daniels is a "realist not a deramper" else i would have interpreted almosts all his posts as incredibly negative regarding the company that i presume he is invested in.
Also noticed that this continued through the weekend , just as his sidekick used to, until he self destructed . The warning signs are there.

some companies do a fundraise soon after changing advisor. No reason for the change mentioned so could IIG be looking at increasing their available funds?? Not necessarily a negative as investment strategy appears to be quite successful to date

current SP performance does look like a placing is either already underway or will be soon.

Fastduck - surely the cuba bars are the best in the revolution range - the standard revolution brand appears to be the issue. Also not sure how you can say RBG were on the slide before covid - the H1 and xmas 2020 period were really good - then covid hit.
This deal looks encouraging IMHO. The 60s theme bar is a stand alone brand the the others will appeal to the younger crowd who appear to be the big spenders ATM. Difficult to determine whether the price is good as revenues/trading was impacted by Covid. I like that 3 of the 5 bars have a kitchen as food ensures it can appeal to many people throughout the day, rather than just the late night drinkers/clubbers.

Agree, when a deramper spends all weekend on a Board you know there are issues. As mentioned i'm also happy to hear different interpretations and opinions but the constant berating of CF was getting tiresome.
Even when CF bought c£300k of shares (at 26.5p) it wasn't enough , however, i've seen other shares move positively on CEO purchases of 1/10th of this.
We know CF has been massively over enthusiastic on some timelines, however, these opportunities have been delayed, they've not disappeared.

BYP - maybe you should be clearer in your posts. You said it might touch £1, not below £2, as you are now implying. £1 is 100p, not 199p

in 2020 we had an xmas period update on 15/1 as this 4 week period is critical. I would expect similar in 2022.

In 2020 the £110m rev from 68 bars is c£31k per week per bar. Over the xmas period the update stated that for the 4 week xmas period the average revenue per bar was £65k per week.

There does seem to be a shift away from large work xmas parties this year which may impact RBG however hopefully this will be replaced by more smaller gatherings. A comparable performance will be impressive IMHO as covid will still have an impact.

partially sold??? - but you say he sold 5/6th so over 80%. If he had 3% that's c£300k. So he sold c£250k of stock.

Not really a vote of confidence

Banbury, not sure you can use a 5 week period for such detailed analysis.

There was a re-opening 'bounce' in July /August so this impact was always going to smooth out.

Regarding cash RBG are opening new brands so this will be eating into the cash. The new store in Swansea launched in the last few days so Oct/Nov spend was probably quite high during this period. Also things like the quarterly VAT payment have a big short term impact

https://foundersandco.uk/

I am not quite sure why you refer to hype - 2021 rev was estimated at £5.5m and GFIN did £5.7m, during a period when lockdowns prevented in person tournaments. If 2022 and 2023 forecasts are met then the SP seems quite cheap IMHO.
In the short term Stock Informer could get this to EBITDA positive quite quickly - in year to March 2021 it did £2.2m rev and made £2.1 profit. This was bought by GFIN in Sept. CEO recently stated some days it makes over £15k (although also said they have £2k to £3k days too). The lead up to xmas will potentially be a big earner.
GDM had 10.7m users at 15p last year, CEO has already stated this is now over 15m at 20p now so clearly decent progress here too. I just think a bit of patience is required here.
As there was no trading update in the YE figures this could drop in mid to late Dec when H1 numbers are better understood.

From the Canaccord note:

Recent acquisitions successfully integrated
We understand that the recent acquisitions of Stock Informer and SiegeGG have been
successfully integrated. These acquisitions will help to scale the fast-growing GDM
business, with the addition of Stock Informer in particular, transformational in terms of
divisional and Group profitability. Stock Informer has developed domain authority and
has become the go-to destination for gamers and others to source scarce and in-demand
products, attracting over 1.9m monthly users and 350,000 social media users. We believe
that the business is well positioned ahead of the peak trading period as the latest 5th
Generation consoles from both Sony and Microsoft, along with other popular electrical
and gaming related products, remain in high demand and short supply.

an additional placing can't be ruled out based on the current cash position - any small company with 1 or 2 large buyers is always susceptible to revenue peaks and troughs based on these orders. It appears the last update was overly optimistic.
Still a decent long term bet but the tree surrounds are part of a 5 year trial so not sure these will be a big earner. The coffee pods in the shorter terms seems the big winner.