Member Info for shandypants2

Monty the 1st placing was to keep the lights when all non essential businesses were shut and the 2nd placing was to get the balance sheet sorted and give the company funds for expansion. Of course there has been cash burn the business was closed for much of the year and when it re-open in April there were social distances restrictions.
The cash is already growing - as witnessed my the extra £8m since July when trading has been really encouraging.
Agree the xmas period is critical and obviously any more covid restrictions will have a significant impact but current trading is more than just positive tones IMHO.

no probs at all - thought it amusing we posted exactly the same excerpt.

RBG is not London focused and main cities appear to be Manchester and Liverpool, but based on their update, and to a lesser extent Spoons, it definitely appears there is a shift in behaviours with the money being spent by the younger clientele who value experience and are prepared to pay for it. The late openings is also a big factor here too which the standard pub can't replicate.

If we can get through the critical xmas trading period without any covid restrictions then things look really healthy here (and also RBG) IMHO.

i've re-read that too and you are right. A £8m cash increase in 4 months bodes well.

As long as there are no further covid restrictions things look very promising here

cheers poker , but that definitely won't be the reason for the drop as revenues are reported when they are invoiced, not when they are paid.
I was thinking for example that Epicstream must get all its revenues from adverts. There appears to be 2 ways this is earned - total number of users on the website gets a small amount per view and a greater amount is paid per advert click i.e. the person has proactively viewed the advertisers website.
I am sure there is a lag getting these payments in and they will not be invoiced as such so say the Q2 advertising revenue (April to June) may not be known until August when it is paid and therefore IFRS says it can only be accounted for in August.
I'm just speculating - if any one is involved in this industry i'm happy to be corrected.
From interview yesterday, CEO mentioned that Stock Informer is already adding good revenues - they have earned £15k and £18k on their best days but on quiet days it's £2k to £3k. If we averaged this at £5k a day that's c£1.8m p.a. SO GDM is definitely going from strength to strength.

fastduck - i posted the same last week (not having a go, just pointing it out).

I think the big news in the Wetherspoons update is that the lower end of the market is struggling (beer, older clientele etc) but the younger age drinkers are actively going out and are prepared to spend. A closer comparison might be Revolution (RBG) which is also at the higher end of the market and has late opening etc. They are performing very well too.

good point re H1 rev for GDM - re-read the H1 rns and the £2m projection YE seemed quite conservative if £1m was generated in H1. To only get to £1.6m is definitely underwhelming.
My only observation is that as the H1 was unaudited maybe some of this revenue was incorrectly applied based on IFRS rules, however, as it's via website visits i'm struggling to see why - perhaps there is a lag in advertising revenues being recognised etc??
However, GDM today is very different from this time last year and the acquisitions all seem to be complementary and will add value.
The next trading update will be interesting

GDM revs per user increased in period form 4p to over 15p and short to medium target of 30p with 50m users (so £15m revenue p.a).
I think a recent comment said they've now increased monthly users from under 10m to over 15m. If we get this to 20m and 20p per user that's £4m p.a. (2021 rev was £1.6m). 30m users would equate to £6m rev at 20p.
The recent acquisitions (2 of the 3 were after YE) should really drive this growth - i notice the highly profitable stocker informer only has 17% of its revenues from the US so that's clearly something GFIN can improve on.
IMHO £5m revenue for m GDM alone is not an unreasonable expectation for 2022 as the acquisitions bed in and start adding value

i think GFIN could have added a current trading update to the outlook statement as we are now over 4 months into H1 and this could have shown that things are progressing nicely.

Revenues slightly higher than expected but overall loss a little bigger than i was hoping. As previously said it's all about 2022 performance now that the new strategy is bedded in.

A couple of points re comments made. Cash - at 30/6 a little lower than i was hoping but since then we've had money from warrants being exercised and also the recent fundraise for stock informer purchase raised over £3m whereas cash cost was £2.5m. So this extra will add to current cash position. Other than for acquisition i don't expect another placing.

Profit margins - GDM is a different type of business to organising events etc. Whilst profit margins may be lower the costs to achieve them are also low and pretty much fixed. So a less volatile part of the business which should give GFIN a firm platform from which to build.

a bit of a holding RNS IMHO. A 2 year renewal is clearly welcome but is not going to blow the doors off.

Still need the malaria contract plus an.other pre xmas please.

it's not just forward projections, the trading in 4 months since YE will be interesting.

GDM seems to be going from strength to strength and hopefully the recent acquisitions are already adding value. For example, the Stock Informer purchase is a very profitable standalone business that should be adding profits from day 1.

These will not be included in the June 2022 revenue forecasts. I am expecting 2022 numbers to be updated and EBITDA profitability.

Agree with both summarises. As last contract was 20/9 we must be due one soon and i am hoping for 2 prior to xmas (1 Malaria and 1 other).

At recent presentations and updates CF has mentioned news before xmas and then has reiterated DIM as early next year, so the 2021 news does not appear to be DIM, which could be the biggest value earner.

We really need at least one of Immutex and PrepBio to be sold/spun off in 2021, if not both, as CF timescales on both have moved a number of times.

For me par is 1 contract and 1 spin off in next 6 weeks or so, anything less and the CF bashers will (rightly) be out in force.

just for clarity your previous post is below.
You were suggesting that there maybe a shift towards cheaper venues. Not only is Revolution performing well in the same period but i've shown that another high end bar company is also doing very well. Yes they are mainly based in London, but so are Wetherspoons. Accept that you may be wrong and move on

"Actually what that might be telling you is that there is migration to venues who sell at a cheaper price away from those with high(er) prices, hence bodes less well."

profit taking ? Why now and not at 120p a few months ago.

Just speculating for the recent drop but will the new acquisition need additional funding over and above what was raised earlier in the year? Also Mozambique is probably considered a more risky location by some.

The last placing was at 90p and the acquisition shares were at 103p so these holders will not be selling.

As mentioned on Revolution Bars board the recent Wetherspoons update makes interesting reading - below.

“In the last 15 weeks, there has been a considerable increase in sales of the range of drinks often consumed by younger customers, for example ****tails (+45%), vodka (+17%) and rum (+26%).

In contrast, draught products, more often consumed by older customers, have been under pressure, with traditional ales down by 30% and stout down by 20%, for example.”

Then there is the christmas season - it appears many companies have delayed booking venues etc but as things slowly appear to be getting back to (new) normal there has been a big increase in bookings over the last few weeks. Got to bode well for Nightcap IMHO

Nic - take a look at NightCap - the high end c ocktail bar company - great RNS last week showing massive like for like growth compared with 2019, similar to RBG.
It appears there is a big rebound in the higher end drinks/experience market and Wetherspoons is suffering due to their older clientele and no music mix.
The younger crowd will always need a meeting place and/or food before they go on somewhere a bit more exciting, and open later

Woodsy - the problem here is that not many younger people go to a Wetherspoons and if they do it's usually as starting point before they go on to livelier places.

Places like revolution bars is seeing a post covid bounce - we are not.

Thanks David - he has said similar for a few months now, but reassuring i suppose, especially reconfirming the news flow between now and xmas. I would rather he focused on that rather than the SP, gets the news/deals completed and announced and the SP will take care of itself. He must know he can't afford anymore delays

i agree a £5 bd won't be made but the net assets are over £1bn so c £5 a share whilst the current market cap is c£200m - a big discrepancy.
Obviously Metro is loss making and the business model isn't great (branches??) but a £2 plus bid seems a reasonable low ball first offer. If another bidder surfaces like at Morrisons this could get interesting

Hi Red, yes still here, and have been for over 3 years now, however, very little to say over the last few weeks!!

Although i think the product is great, short term i am less confident. I agree the modest broker forecasts will not be met unless there is a hockey stick style uplift as clearly the payer coverage process is taking longer than the previous management expected - not current CEO who has been clear how it works in every presentation.

Due to the discounted fundraise early this year the c£28m will take us to maybe summer 2022 - frustrating as if we had raised maybe 6 months earlier they could have raised at over £1 and so could easily have got maybe £40m or £50m.

It nows seems possible that further funding may be required. Not necessarily a placing, but i'm less keen on debt free companies taking on debt.

Anyway, either way we need to see some evidence that revenues are coming in and are growing at a decent rate. Until then i can't see the SP doing much.

Good luck all LTH

I suspect everyone is a little frustrated at the lack of info regarding Accrufer US revenues, however, it is now clear that the payer coverage process takes time and some have now speculated that news will not drop until January. This may be true.

In recent presentations the pateint access program has been mentioned as a method adopted by STX to generate clinical experience.
If i've understood it correctly if a clinician identifies a patient who could benefit from Accrufer but the product is not yet covered by his/her insurer the product is supplied to the customer at a nominal price to ensure they don't miss out. This ensures there is real time data regarding the products benefits and also means that when insurer coverage is granted these patients move seamlessly across.

ALthough revenues via this route will be low it will show how many patients are using the product. The top 100 prescribers alone write c20 iron supplement prescriptions per week. It is possible that c50% of these patients could benefit from Accrufer. If so that could be 1,000 patients using Accrufer per week. Over the last 3 months that could now be over 10k.

So whilst we wait for pay coverage to be granted and then the revenues to start coming in the actual patient coverage data would provide some useful data to show that the strategy is working.

This could be released any day IMHO.