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late trade from Friday was 1m shares at 4p - looks like another lot of warrants being exercised. Must be on fumes by now

Hardman's have reiterated their 281p price target. Refers to an 'apparent' slow start in US. Maybe more is happening behind the scenes

Investment summary: The Shield-led launch of Accrufer was always the best option, in our opinion. Now that the period of commercial uncertainty in the US is over, the near-term target is to raise awareness, promote patient access programmes and establish payor coverage. The market seems overly worried about the “apparent” slow start, but any news on sales traction and/or the signing-up of payors should act as a catalyst to narrow the valuation disconnect.

Hi Deeno, yes i listened.

CEO comes across well. Is knowledgeable and was clear and concise - a big improvement on Watts.

The presentation had a few new slides but many similar to the 17th Aug one which is on the STX website.

No new news , as expected, and rather disappointingly Q &As were cut short due to timings.

A couple of things that were new to me - the 30 salesforce is focussed on the top 4k clinicians out of the 60k they have identified as being worth contacting.
Payer coverage process can take 6 months plus as up to 6 meetings are usually required - was hoping as we are targeting the highest prescribers these discussions will be easier and quicker (my words not the CEO!!).

However, if a person needs Accrufer they have a process to get the drug to them asap and at a nominal costs to ensure there is usage whilst these negotiations are ongoing.

Also a focussed marketing campaign kicked off 1st Sept to support sales process.

In terms of questions only time for 2.

Europe sales - has spoken to Norgine a number of times. Happy with their plan going forward.
US - reiterated that salesforce is sufficient for the 4k coverage no mention of how the extra 56k will be contacted.

Certainly no red flags, however, it is clear that 'Rome wasn't build in a day'. Patience is required

Have to agree with Arsenal - with £26m returned to shareholders that values the core business at c£46m.

It is a profitable and growing business, cash generative and now has a much improved balance sheet.

Can't see this dropping by 45p on ex div date either - it will drop but maybe by c40p

These must be released by end of Sept so not long now. It will be good to see the cleaned up balance sheet. Hopefully progress in H1 to date and forward looking statement will be positive.

Just checked and C+L look good, however, at £16 for a moisturiser it is not cheap. 2 competitors are listed directly below at £3 and £4 respectively

https://www.amazon.co.uk/s?k=charles+%2B+lee+moisturiser&crid=226FEHBT90DLK&sprefix=charles+%2B+lee%2Caps%2C152&ref=nb_sb_ss_ts-doa-p_1_13

every presentation announcement is preceded by similar wording, and even if not it would clearly be illegal to communicate price sensitive info via this route.

However, a CEO can say and do many things to provide some level of reassurance etc.

Just look at the CEO at ORPH. He may over egg timelines etc but he says how enthusiastic he is , hoping for more contracts, 2022 should be a good year, hoping to buy more shares in the future, hoping to realise significant shareholder value etc.

CEO has already stated he is 'pleased' back in July and that the strategy is the correct one. That reassured me at the time.

Today i'm hoping these phrases are reiterated and maybe a 'pleased with current progress', 'have received positive feedback from clinicians' , 'the demand is definitely out there' etc.

Agree David - yesterday we had solid results and a solid presentation.

We are almost in Q4 so i think CF has been warned not to give specific dates and over promise when he can't control all factors. Re CHIM some have interpreted his comments as it not happening, however, i think he has been told not to give a detailed update as he has no control over the timeframes (also potentially NDAed).

He did say hoping for 1 contract a month (where have we heard that before!!) and we know the Malaria CS will be ready for November and he has previously stated he expects 1 or 2 contracts for that to be signed in 2021.
I am definitely expecting maybe 2 contracts to be announced in the next 3 months and positive news on at least 1 spin off (Immutex?) too.

The £50m non covid projection for 2020 hopefully more than supports the current SP.
Based on 4 x rev that's c30p a share. This excludes any covid work in 2022 and any of the spin offs (c10p based on FinnCaps conservative figures).

My thoughts are that now we have had almost 3 months activity in US, CEO will know that people will be keen to get a progress update.

Hopefully a progress to date RNS may be released to coincide with this presentation. If it is still too early for any financials at a minimum i'd expect a 'progressing in line with management expectations' comment.

2 of the 3 brokers have c$4m revenues for 2021 so it is not unreasonable for the CEO to indicate if this is on track.
IMHO i'm hoping for a revenues to date are over $1m although there may be a time lag between orders and revenue recognition. In the next month or so we also need to know that revenues per month have exceeded $1m etc else this YE target won't be met.

A decent update will help to de-risk the US launch

Hopefully there is either news on or before the 23rd and/or CEO provides a positive progress update.

It is painful ATM

you may be right, let's see. However, if you are going to quote me please ensure the excerpt posted covers my full point. In the next line i mentioned we have a non refundable deposit from the UK govt too.

I believe this was £2.5m per CS. Even if the current extension is assumed to be the 2nd study then that's still leaves £5m that will go straight to the bottom line if the UK govt walks away.

Not having a pop BTW, just pointing out that the worst case may actual not be that bad

Just re-listened to it. He initially said 'in the coming months' and then he later said we would complete the 3 spin off by 'early next year'. I read this as 1 or 2 could come slightly earlier but all 3 would be completed by early next year.

Hopefully he can clarify tonight.

yes, all looking good.

2 loss making companies were combined only a year or so ago. As of H1 revenues are more than the whole of 2020 and we are EBITDA positive (i did say last week a £3m EBITDA and a £1m loss would be good - so not a million miles away) with reassurances that we will be PBT positive at YE.
A new contract announced with more to come and non covid earnings in 2022 of £50m (plus any covid on top). The core business is in rude health.

Slight negatives are delay in UK govt CHIM study. However, a couple of points here - this is delayed not cancelled, a big difference. Also as we have seen with UK govt you can only go at their pace. Look at other UK companies dealing with UK govt (NCYT,ODX and Abington etc) - they've all had issues, delays, contract disputes and non payment. ORPH has a non refundable deposit, so we are in a much better place, and of course covid isn't going anywhere soon despite the comments from Boris.
The other negative will be the perceived delay in spin offs. It will be interesting if dates are firmed up tonight. Dates were never going to be RNSed today and obviously Immutex is outside of CF's control.
I do want firmer details on DIM, however, i think CF will be careful to offer a date after previous estimates. His current line of in the coming months is a more sensible statement . In the grand scheme of things if this is delayed form late 201 to early 2022 and delivers decent shareholder value i am not overly fussed.

Agree Citizen, the results on Monday will not be great - we know we are EBITDA positive but not yet profitable.

As long as this loss is small(ish) and due to one off costs then i will be happy.

Additionally, YE guidance and firm updates on the 3 spin offs is critical as this will impact share sentiment. Hopefully CF is on the ball and provides clear and concise numbers and timings.

the sooner these warrants are gone the better.

YE numbers in Oct and a positive forward looking statement should do wonders for the share price. GDM progress and potential is not currently factored into the SP IMHO.

actually just looked at FinnCap research notes re 2021 estimates and beyond.

For 2021 they had 2021 cash outflow of £17.6m mainly due to capex spend. Obviously cash was c£11m at 31/12 so there is a £6m shortfall. I'm guessing some of this is being made up via the mortgage etc but comments as per the meeting such as 'we are monitoring the cash daily' is a little concerning.

From a rev perspective we had £4.1m at H1, £1.2 in July and Aug and an order book of £3.9m of which £2.8m is due in 2021.
FinnCap target is £8.8m so more of the order book needs to be completed before YE to meet this target. However, this YE figure was reiterated during the meeting so looks like things are progressing there.

decent presentation but i came away a little worried about the cash and another placing.

Based on the SP decline i'm not alone. Any thoughts?

i agree to an extent - but he clearly didn't answer the question. The Android launch date was irrelevant. It was always a 'soft' launch so not expecting silly numbers, but even if numbers couldn't be provided answers such as volumes are growing in line with management expectations etc after all it has been in place for 6 months now.

Also later he mentioned 50% gross profit margin for STC. Surely that's the most commercially sensitive piece of info which was just thrown in

STC short term should be a good revenue earner for DVRG and they have been growing capacity slowly and as we know have a marketing activity kicking off in Q4 (so only a few weeks away). However, below is a poor answer to a simple question.
STC was launched at the end of March 2021, so 6 months ago and the Apple app was launched a few weeks later.

There were a few other vague answers re financials and geographical revenue splits - no cost estimates can be provided for H2 in 2021?? I like DVRG and GB on the whole has many positives but he doesn't seem to be on top of financials and then gets 'touchy' when these perfectly reasonable questions get asked. There is no point highlighting the revenue growth, which is impressive, without explaining the cost increase, which is increasing at a similar level.

Q4: How many Skin Trust Club kits have you sold to date and how many month on month? What is the rate of growth? What are the net and gross profits per kit sold? What is your present capacity for testing or processing the kits? I do not like the limelight so please do not read out my name if these questions are addressed and an email or a link to the information would be even better. Thanks in advance Simon

The launch of Skin Trust Club Android app just a few weeks ago is insufficient time to provide an indication of sales, but we have stated in a recent update that a capacity of up to 20,000 is available as we head into a major promotional launch in Q4.

if LFTs are here to stay surely we need to know what tests are being used.

The innova product rebranded as NHS tests are of questionable accuracy and the FDA has not approved them. Although the UK has bought loads supposedly this contract has not been renewed and current stock is being used up.

So what is it being replaced by?

Seems madness to scrap PCR without an adequate replacement being in place on day 1

Ryan, you make some good points, however, don't confuse any upfront payments with revenue recognition as the timing of the two can be very different.
As part IFRS revenue can only be recognised at the point of delivery. So whilst the final study results will be key here earlier payments are allowed e.g. maybe 20% when agreed number of volunteers are finalised prior to the beginning of the study etc.