Member Info for shandypants2

surely a dividend would be issued prior to any share buy back. Can't see either until contract dispute is resolved but a YE dividend is a possibility

Response from POLB re TR1 - for info. The 3% rule doesn't appear to apply to Schroders (might be foreign ownership??)

Many thanks for reaching out and further to the FCA’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules certain funds need only notify an issuer of their shareholding once they exceed 5% of which we believe Schroders is one. As you have highlighted, in the latest TR-1 Poolbeg received Schroders stated their holding was “Below 5%” – I am afraid we have no further information than this with respect to their holding currently however it is our intention to update this figure once we have received an updated shareholder analysis from our provider. For information, under the AIM Rules this information needs to be updated no less than every six months.

Carol Dalton
VP Investor Relations & Public Relations
18 Fitzwilliam Place, Dublin 2, D02 HH29, Ireland.
T +353 1 644 0007 W www.PoolbegPharma.com

my point is that Schroder had over 25m shares at the end of July and even if every sell since then has been them they still have well over £20m. They are clearly not out, as EE alluded to. Their reduction could be for many reasons - they might have internal risk levels that limit a company holding to say 5% (may not have known what % they would have got on day 1 due to scale backs) or potentially had to reduce some holdings to keep a certain % of cash.

You and your mate EE (unless you are the same person) just continually post conspiracy theory Sh it . Give it a rest

good post Demon - totally agree. Even if rev is 'only' £40m (broker target is £46m and CF has stated aiming for £50m) at 4 x rev it values the core business at 24p. It is also a near 100% YoY increase as revenues in 2020 were £22m.
Finncap valued all spin offs at 10p, including DIM, BTW. Have to say i think that's quite conservative based on the value of POLB which was meant to be the least valuable of the lot.
Still think DIM is the one that will add considerable value - infectious disease data will carry a premium price and we have 30 years worth of data. SENS is valued at £250m with minimal revenues so it show the value of medical data.

It is noticeable that during the weekend, when things are quiet, the usual two are busy posting their negativity.

emailed IR recently and actually got a reply from CEO. Clarky confirmed that over 90% of the warrants have been exercised and that less than 20m were outstanding.

Results in Oct as per previous years. As warrants expire in October, hopefully that will be a good month for GFIN

" Schroders put in £2.25m to help CF show faith and get the IPO away but have since reduced to a non-notifiable amount and may even be completely out, we don't know but then they no longer have to tell us."

Rubbish EE and you know it - trying to create a negative that isn't there. Schroder has reduced their holding and you are right we don't know how many they have (as per AIM rules as a foreign investor's reporting limit is 5%) however as Schroder had over 25m shares (5% of the 500m in issue) it is impossible for these 25m to have been sold.

Since POLB started trading on the 19th July only c30m shares have been traded in total. As the price has stayed reasonably static the buys and sells must be reasonably equal so c15m shares sold. As you can see from this link the only days of decent volume were the first few days after admission.
The Schroder Tr1 states the day they went below 5% was on 2nd August so on 1st August they were above 5%. SInce 1st August c6m shares have been traded in total (buys and sells).
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/shares/share/POLB/historic-prices

Bronx - Govt contract will not be replicated in 2022? Where is the evidence to back up that claim?
IMHO 2022 might see greater UK govt revenue as the 2nd CS appears to be delayed so now might be early 2022. If it doesn't happen we have pre-paid deposits of £2.5m each for 3 additional studies as per the RNS in Oct 2020. If we say one of these is being 'used' for the current characterisation study extension that still leaves £5m. If UK govt walk away (and there is no evidence of this) then the £5m can go straight onto the bottom line.
The £40m govt contract was always to be spread over a number of years as it covered 4 separate CSs , however, you keep bashing out the same tosh repeatedly.
We are in a quiet period for news so it clearly suits your agenda, but it is getting repetitive.

Green - excellent analysis yet again , many thanks

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/900636/shield-therapeutics-appoints--new-ceo-as-it-prepares-for-american-launch-of-accrufer-900636.html

As per STX presentation in April 2021 (powerpoint pack on STX website) it states we are in discussions with 3 potential licencing partners. So 1 down

Other markets
• Currently in active discussions with potential licence partners in three separate countries
• One potential transaction is at licence documentation stage, the other two are at earlier stages

Strange 1st post by Sister Act. As they raised £28m net only a few months ago and US costs are $25m to $30m a year (so c£22m max) then clearly cash will not be an issue for at least the next 12 months, assuming zero revenues. Not only that in the first year a good chunk of this spend will be on marketing to raise the profile of Accrufer. Clearly this spend can be tweaked as required quite quickly.
The H1 results next week will have to declare the cash position so this will have to be commented on by STX.

Analyzer - i think you've summed this up very well with the term 'assurance' . Seed are massive and i think most LTHs are a little frustrated with the slow progress, however, not only do things now seem to be moving but the geographical expansion is a massive positive.

As there are no numbers or minimum order sizes mentioned the response has been muted, however, as you say this demonstrates things are moving in the background.

yes, nice little deal, a no brainer really. Agree Japan is the obvious next target as a large population and iron deficiency is a big issue. Maybe also Canada too now we are set up in the US. It appears Greg is already on it. Hopefully he is also speaking to Norgine to get them to be a bit more focused in their marketing as European revs thus far have been disappointing.

Green, good number crunching. and your £46m rev is consistent with Finncap's estimate too.

Incidentally their 47p target is based on 5 x revenue valuation plus 10p for spin offs (inc POLB).
I think the 10p spin off estimate is quite conservative based on POLB but let's go with it and using a more conservative 4 x rev valuation that gives a SP of 37p, so c50% upside from today's price.

Ear, this is my last post as quite frankly i'm worried about your mental health.

I'm no massive fan of CF, on here i have called him out for exaggeration, but am also a realist and can see that timescales are not set in stone and on the whole he has delivered more often than not. I am certainly not going to beat him up for not making OO a $1m company as this was clearly an aspiration (would you prefer him to talk down the company??).

Anyway as you deal with hard facts, lets look at them. OO total revenues in 2020 were £22m, so at 4 x rev that's a £88m valuation or 13p a share. The only spin off on the balance sheet is Immutex valued at £7m or c1p per share.
So if you are invested in OO the company is massively overvalued so i would suggest you sell up ASAP.

How do we value DIM? CF stated it COULD be larger than OO so over £150m. SENS is valued at £250m today (a hard fact) with minimal revenues and massively loss making. I've estimated £50m to £100m (including any money raised). I may be wrong and am happy to accept that, however, don't bash a guesstimate without offering an alternative. If you don't have an alternative i suggest you refrain from posting to protect your mental health.

Good luck all LTH

H1 results will be next week, 17th Aug, as per RNS today. Quite a bit earlier than previous years. Hopefully that bodes well

yes he emphasised this point, saying profitable service companies should pay an annual dividend. Don't expect a massive one - maybe 1p a share, which equates to just under £7m.

Earache , why do you post when you are so negative towards CF? Guesstimates are pointless? Companies get valued on potential so how else do you value them whilst waiting for hard figures - which by the time they are released they are out of date.

Incidentally CF valued DIM at 'potentially' more than OO at about the current price, so say £150m.
SENS is valued at £250m with minimal revenues and massively loss making - health data is valuable.

POLB was valued at zero on the balance sheet - CF has generated £20m value for shareholders out of thin air.

https://hardman-co.com/p/49CL-HU2/join-our-webinar?dm_i=49CL,14KA7,6CM8QF,55AVL,1

STX are presenting on the 23/9 so i'd be very surprised if H1 numbers and an US update have not been released by this time.

it's a finger in the air, but based on CF comments that it could be worth more than the current value of ORPH and also high valuation of other health data companies e.g. Sensyne Health is valued at £250m and had £9m of revenues last year (i know they are not in exactly the same space, but used as a guide).
There is also an argument for assigning a premium value to Hvivo's unique data (which goes back 30 years) too.

Essentially if POLB can be valued at £20m (excluding free shares and £25m raise) i am sure DIM is worth significantly more.
I think when Orph first bought Venn there was talk of a genomics database where each patient's data was valued at £5k.

A £67m 'free' valuation (excluding any fundraise) values DIM at a nice round 10p per Orph share. I'm using this as my valuation until we get further clarity. So IMHO core ORPH c25p, DIM 10p, say 5p for Immutex and Prep and of course 3.5p for POLB.

Just re-reading the 2020 accounts and this is the excerpt re DIM.
Looking at assets on accounts there is £7m assigned to Immutex and zero for Prep Biopharm. DIM however is difficult to value as the data is core to what ORPH does. Having said that i would expect an initial valuation of between £50m & £100m

we are very excited by the opportunity to progress our Disease in Motion® platform. The platform includes data
from cutting edge wearables that are applicable to a wide variety of end users including big tech, wearables, pharma, and
biotech companies. As volunteers remain under close observation prior to viral challenge, during disease progression and
through to full recovery, data is captured across the full time-course of the infection, yielding possible insights into the body's response to infection. As a recognised global leader in supporting the development of therapeutics and vaccines, our team of virological, clinical, and regulatory experts are actively in discussion with potential partners to help address the next set of challenges facing humanity. In due course, we see the potential for this new activity stream to be demerged from the core services business to again create significant value through separate shareholdings.