Member Info for shandypants2

another contract win in the personal care industry. Probably not the biggest from a revenue perspective but it's another sector that they're in - note it mentions this is a growing sector for the company, so i suspect that's why it's been released.

Hopefully H1/trading update in the next few weeks too. Under 20p looks a steal here as long as cash is being managed

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57840825

this is clearly worrying, however, from a STX perspective it should increase demand for it's product.

Kidney disease is a long term issue and often leads to anaemia so these people will need an effect oral treatment.

all good points BeCon.

A couple of points to add to this. As we know the spin offs are valued at zero on the balance sheet so getting any value for these can only be a positive. For those who say there is value already attributed to the SP for these assets i'm not convinced. If there is it's clearly a guess. Poolbeg free shares are on day 1 valued at £22.5m - my finger in the air estimate was 1 to 2p (of 670m shares) so £14m tops - we have a 50% increase on day 1. We also now have £25m working capital to increase this value, something that clearly wasn't going to happen sitting within ORPH.

How do you value DIM? DIM 'could' be worth as much as ORPH so c£200m. Clearly this value is not in the ORPH current SP.

As for the core business - yes the UK govt delays are a bit frustrating, but understandable. As for limited growth opportunities there are still expansion opportunities. The first is clearly to acquire more space like the boutique hotel purchase close to the hospital. The other is to outsource ORPH's CS expertise - this appears to be the crux of the current discussions with China. If they bite then it's a 8 figure deal.

IMHO i don't get all this criticism of CF. Yes he is clearly a glass almost full type of guy but he has delivered thus far, albeit sometimes not to the guided timescales. Let's give the guy some slack and give him time to deliver more value - the opportunities are clearly there

I'm not necessarily expecting it but i'm hoping there will be at least 1 RNS prior to the H1 numbers in Sept.

We have a new CEO and have just started selling Accrufer in the US. I like to think an August update would be considered beneficial to keep shareholders up to date with developments (assuming there are some!). Also there must be some concern at recent SP since late June update (although i appreciate the whole AIM market is suffering).

I think first revenues would be an easy one to put out and maybe when certain rev milestones are reached e.g. first month when $500k rev is generated, $1m etc (not expecting the latter until 2022 BTW).

There is also the strong possibility of an additional commercial agreement being signed (as per recent RNS). This could drop anytime.
If it's say Japan (they have a significant issue with anaemia, partly due to diet) this could be a decent sized deal - Japan's population is c125m.

Bear - warrants will expire in Oct 2021 - difficult to know exactly but i think consensus is that there are less than 10m left based on previous announcements and continued selling.

Trading as announced in March (for 6 months to 31/12/20) were encouraging. EBITDA loss is massively down and revenues are up and costs are down. Cash was £1.6m. Cash burn from operating in period was (£439k) so c£70k a month. However, H2 results should be better so i am hoping they will be EBITDA positive now (not for the full year , but hopefully Q4 - April to June 2021)

Cash is not an issue IMHO.

General market apathy plus the warrants seems to be the big drag at the moment. Hopefully we will get a trading update soon

sorry typo - think you knew what i meant.

actually whilst i like CF and have often defended him on here i thought the ex divi comment was a bit ingenuous.

I bought some on 17/6 and share price was over 30p - share price yesterday c25p so a 5p drop. Explaining this reduction due to the ex div is misleading. Firstly he is comparing it to a cash dividend, which it clearly isn't.

He has also overlooked the logic for the spin off. It was sitting on the ORPH balance sheet at zero value (i think) and it was almost impossible to assign a value. It was clearly worth more than zero, but if you came up with a £10m or £20m valuation it would be finger in the air maths. A £10 m valuation (before the placing dilution) would be c1.5p a share. We now know it's 3.3p but we didn't know that on 18th June .

And supposedly by some miracle you estimate the dividend value of 3.3p , well it dropped far more than than for a start and the week before going ex it dropped from 39p (day after presentation) to 30p the day before going ex divi. This clearly had nothing to do with the spin off and seemed to be due to people being unnerved due to his missed deadlines.

However, he finished the interview well saying there would be much value added in the next weeks/months, so i'm happy to sit and wait.

today has been a good day and i just can't understand the negativity. CF has done what he stated a few weeks ago, albeit he was overly ambitious with the timescales (not for the first time).

The c£300k purchase today is decent. Yes he already has 46m shares but these were bought at c5p - i remember at the time he stated that his wife wasn't happy that he'd invested a big chunk of their savings into ORPH (about £2m i think). He is wealthy but not silly wealthy and his great return on ORPH hasn't been realised yet. He's also investing in POLB so i did state a few weeks ago that this director purchase wouldn't be £1m plus (as some had speculated), more like £200k. It's more than that so i'm happy. IMHO the amount of share purchased is almost irrelevant - the fact that he and Buckley are purchasing any when they already have a substantial holding is a massive positive IMHO.

The delay in announcing the next govt contract is now clear and outside of CF's control. The fact that we continue to work with the UK govt surely can only be interpreted as a positive. Clearly this was the insider info too that prevented an earlier share purchase.

POLB is progressing well and the £25m raised is more than initially expected - again a positive IMHO.

Finally the smaller Breda contract seems to have been released to let shareholders know that the core business continues to operate efficiently and not every contract is RNSed.

The DIM spin off will happen and that's the biggie IMHO.

and August is just over 2 weeks away!!!

surely it has to be material for it to be RNSed. Obviously each company can define material but it's usually a minimum of 5 to 10% of current revenues.

At recent update it stated that they've had 18 new contracts (Jan to May) and there were 22 in 2020 in total. Clearly most of these have not been RNSed, so today's must be larger than the norm. I think at recent presentation it was mentioned small contracts were c£20k and averaged £50k. I reckon to be RNSed it must be at least £100k.

Regardless of contract size things are clearly moving in the right direction. Hopefully SP will catch up eventually.

STX don't need money and there won't be a takeover anytime soon.

£29m was raised in March - this will be sufficient to get US operational profitable (estimate is 15 to 18 months - probably quite conservative).
New CEO took an inferior iron supplement to market in 2018 and in year 1 revenues were $111m.

If a takeover was a possibility it would have occurred maybe in early 2021 when the share price was on its knees. Now we are selling in the US larger pharmas will wait to see if it is a success before moving. That's the way they work.

Recent share price action has been a concern but IMHO anyone who bought at placing or around that time was sitting on a near 100% profit. They have de-risked as the progress in US may take some time.
LTHs are probably sitting on a loss so are being more patient.

Pearl IMHO this is how it works - studies are pre-booked but these dates are not set in stone and some factors may be outside of the control of ORPH. Also volunteers are required for specific dates and getting these in place is not always an exact science etc.
So these dates may need to be flexed a little for each contract.
We also have the facility reserved for UK Govt CSs. It is possible this is being utilised for other contracts.
Look at the first UK Govt contract - was this meant to finish in late May/early June? If this was pushed back then the next contract start date will also be impacted. I suspect that's the price sensitive info CF alluded to.

Being about to squeeze in a new contract late in 2021 (so Oct/Nov i presume) is not a red flag IMHO just how this business works.

100% right Skids - i get these too but this is because i've searched BRSD and general industry data/info.

The google advertising is very effective. You can set an amount you wish to invest and agree the specific trigger words etc.
You can do this piecemeal so you can check the effectiveness of each mini campaign before committing more money.
General brand awareness for those in the industry is never a bad thing

Russky - good point re TR , His 16m shares have been burning a hole in his pocket for the last 2 years (when they were c5p!) and the lock in expired late June. That added to the delay in the contract being announced that CF alluded to (not today's IMHO) has created the perfect storm in the short term.
My point is i suspect CF knew TR would be selling and hence his comment that he would be buying. I suspect he's agreed to take 1m or possibly slightly more off his hands but clearly can't do that whilst he is in possession of price sensitive info.

LLOL - strange comment. No one can have confidence in the past management and the present ones are unproven. All we can see is that the full YE loss is great than the H1 loss under the old mgmt so despite H2 being the profitable period for IDP this hasn't occurred this year. Clearly covid has played a significant part but i suspect there are other issues. For example, i notice that Tesco has dropped Roots and Superdrug has massively reduced range and shelf space for the same brand.
Let's see how the next 6 months pan out as the honeymoon period for the new BOD is now over.

LLOL - just to prove my point i've checked the last 2 accounts. At YE 2020 intangible assets were £7.8m and at H1 they were reported as £8.003m so an increase of £193k. Although H1 were unaudited and are not detailed it is fair to assume that this increase related to the proportion of marketing spend that was used to increase the customer list (think it is £3.50 per new customer).
So of the £600k they have just stated it appears £200k relates to H1 and £400k to H2.
H1 loss was £1m so added the intangibles on that's a £1.2m loss. If loss is now £1.5m then that's a 300k loss for H2, a period when IDP usually make money.
Showing 2 different EBITDA figures is a bit disingenuous IMHO and designed to confuse. I would have preferred them to state £1.5m loss but note that £600k of this relates to marketing costs that previously would have been recorded as intangibles.

Happy to be proved wrong, but i disagree. The £600k difference is this year's marketing costs - previous years are already on the accounts as intangible assets and are being written off.
You can't state the previous accounting treatment was wrong and then continue to use it to show your figures in a better light.
Whilst i think the RNS was poorly worded the EBITDA loss is £1.5m is the actual figure and the £600k appears to relate to this year spend and not previous year costs.

This update is not great and current trading is still a massive concern and just blaming it on covid/social distancing and the weather isn't sufficient IMHO.

Loss at H1 was c1m so reporting a EBITDA loss of £1.5m YE indicates that H2 was also a loss despite higher gross margins and limited marketing spend and revenues of £6m in that period.

Also H2 is the period when the cash usually increases quite significantly (usually at least £1m increase from H1 close) yet it appears it's down £2m as IDP has burnt through half the £4m net placing raise. I would have hoped cash would be at least £3m YE as H1 period usually is quite a cash intensive period for the company. Maybe there were no large retail orders as they still had stock from previous year.

Of the write downs the £3m marketing cost/ customer book costs were always going to go , the £4m on brand goodwill is higher than i expected but ok. The inventory write down (£1.5m ) and 400k relating to other assets is a bit of a concern as these should have been cash generating assets and are clearly not intangibles.

No news on brand or overseas expansion too which is a little disappointing.

Creightons offer of 2 shares for every 3 IDP earlier in the year valued IDP at c44p based on CRL share price at the time. CRL is now over 80p so that deal would value IDP at c55p now. Just saying!!!

MrsR you are right - as of March 2020 it was 2.97% of shares in issue of 549m so c16m.

Bronx if you are going to post (after selling!!!) please get your figures correct. The lock in period did indeed cease 29/6/21. Incidentally 25m shares would be more than 3% so would need to be declared so that's a 5 second check on the OO website

Bronx - Richardson has/had less than 3% as at March 2020 so we don't know what his current holding is.

If he wanted out he has many opportunities to sell on the spikes. Why sell now the price is under pressure? Any evidence to back up your claim?