Member Info for shandypants2

this current quiet period reminds me of the price action last Oct (ish) when the share rose steady to c32p on the back to the UK Govt CS news and then dropped back to low 20p where it stayed for a while before going on a great run to c47p a month or so ago. Now back down to 30p ish and all the negative posters come out.
CF was naive to recently give a date for news BUT it was not via an RNS and as everyone should know who has been to an ORPH presentation he is a glass half full man and is often over optimistic with dates.
He has price sensitive news but any contract can only be published/finalised when both parties agree. As previously suggested i think it's the 2nd UK govt CS.
Of the spin offs DIM is a very valuable asset so IMHO don't do anything until this is monetised.

thanks David.

Current shares in issue is 930m and i note your calculation uses 899m so could the warrants be even lower now?

noticed they stated cash position is far better than mentioned in the RNS. Actually cash in bank is c£7m but they are buying a building for £3m (to avoid £0.5m p.a rent). When this is completed a mortgage for £2m will be secured on it.

So whilst they are not swimming in cash they appear to have sufficient for next 12 months including capital expenditure ( i think £9m in 2021 was previously mentioned).

Parp - "BIOM hates paying taxes so writes their RNSs accordingly".

That's a strange statement - if a company didn't make a profit and pay tax it would eventually go bust. BIOM has to my knowledge only ever reported 1 year of profit (in 2018 £100k) and has made a loss in the few years before and after so will not have paid corporation tax.

In the March contract win it stated this deal would have a significant impact on 2021 revenues. If these revenues have been delayed then the impact is significant, hence the RNS.
What the impact will be for 2022 is unknown but they've already called out it will make a loss in that year too which is a concern IMHO.

I don't own , but like the green technology. Knew it would spike after JW interest was was sitting on my hands. Will definitely wait longer now - this RNS is concerning

Redwine - the year 1 performance of Auryxia (c$111m rev from a standing start) is no doubt why Madison is now CEO. If he can replicate even 50% of this with Accrufer (which is a better product and has a wider use) in year 1 that will be ahead of predicted targets.
Looking at his CV he left Keryx in 2018 so i'm not sure how hands on he would have been but he would have certainly been heavily involved in the strategy and i suspect much of this can be replicated in his current role.
I think STX revenue projections are quite modest so Greg has the opportunity to smash these - i'm still hoping for breakeven by month 12 not 15 to 18 as advised.

I think the US market is more transparent than the UK - STX has stated they have identified 100 doctors/clinicians who prescribe over 1,000 iron doses per year - with a total market size of 10m p.a these 100 account for 1% of this market!!

In terms of Norgine the slow take up is a bit concerning. I am not an expert but my observations are:
1. Norgine have not assigned as many resources to it as we would like, partly waiting until extra European countries were added - think France, Spain and Italy have now been added
2. H2H study has delayed things as this was designed to assist marketing. As these errors were STXs doing i think they are not kicking up a fuss
3. I think Norgine focus on IBD whereas Ferracru has a wider use so they are not exploiting the whole market
4. Uk market in particular is very disparate with loads of small doctors practices and regional NHS. This makes access more time consuming
5. Norgine were slow to adjust to covid and are predominantly face to face selling
6. UK NHS is focus on cost , not the same as cost effectiveness. Salt based iron tablets are always prescribed as cost is so low (pence per day)

I agree Dave but this elusive first revenues just keep slipping a little with every update. If you have repeatedly stated, as SO4 has, that production will be in the June quarter then if this isn't achieved, even by only a few weeks this should be called out.

This reminds me a little of the kids joke pack where a piece of string is attached to a fiver. Leave it on the floor and when someone tries to pick it up you pull it further up away.

Hopefully the wait will be worth it.

re-reading today's RNS there are a number of negative factors.

The client's factory issues will obvious create a short term revenue shortfall - this is described in months. Clearly this will impact 2021 revenue targets.

Later they mention issues with shipping delays etc that is causing issues improving products and they also throw in FX issues. Surely these issues will have been known 2 months ago when the last update was given.

All fair issues and out of BIOME's control but these could all be resolved within a few months. The fact that they've stated 2022 revenues will be impacted is a little concerning IMHO.

Cash- was £1.8m in April and now £1.3m so 0.5m reduction in 2 months.

For now this will remain on my watchlist

yes and impact not just for 2021 but also 2022. Although cash ok at the moment 2 more years of losses means a placing may be imminent. Don't caught the falling knife

first glance all looks ok. EBITDA loss of c£800k is slightly less than i was expecting and cash burn of c£2m was expected after £1m in H1. 2021 progress has been solid and recent placing will sort the balance sheet

Not quite sure what the delay was but i don't think it's due to trying to bury bad news

From the RNS in May the 1st revenues should be any day now. I'm guessing part of the SP decline has been due to 2021 revenues being reduced and also steady state costs increasing (not for the first time!). Tony S is very quiet on twitter at the moment, hopefully that's a good sign!

Lake Way project update

The Lake Way Project is on schedule for first SOP production in June 2021 and first SOP sales very shortly thereafter. Commissioning is substantially progressed with 26 of the 34 Plant Process Units now commenced and 17 of those Process Units now finalised to Practical Completion. Overall plant commissioning is more than 50% complete. The target for full scale production of 245ktpa remains the June quarter of 2022.

Revenue expectation in 2021 has been reduced, driven by expected slower harvest salt ramp up due to a delay in receipt of EPA Part IV until late April following the recent state election, a lower evaporation rate incorporated into new dynamic pond model and a larger than expected impact from harvest salt production cells being taken offline during peak salt formation from December to February to prove harvesting methodology. Train 3 pond cells have been repurposed to reflect revised pond design. The reduced revenue expectation for 2021 was a key consideration in determining the additional funding required.

In addition, the project capital budget for the initial scope of works has increased by A$5m to at A$269m as a result of advancing sustaining capital work involving the construction of 271Ha of pre-concentration ponds (A$2.5m) and associated trench and bore capacity (A$2.5m) to feed the additional pond acreage. The additional pre-concentration ponds will help to de-risk salt production, with the lending syndicate's Independent Technical Review Report noting "It is clear [that] together with conservative process design criteria, the revised pond system on average will be able to produce in excess of nameplate production, with worst case conditions meeting nameplate".

As part of the project final cost to complete review operating cost assumptions have also been updated, with steady state costs increasing from A$337/t (adj. for higher AUD FX and shipping from Fremantle) to A$390/t. The primary drivers for the increases in expected operating costs are higher onsite logistics (+A$30/t), laboratory (+A$8/t) and increased diesel and labour costs (+A$14/t).

NU - they RNSed saying results hopefully on 28/6 and definitely by 30/6 (the AIM deadline). Why bother saying 28th in the first place and then hedging your bets and stating a later date just in case.

If you are going to RNS a date you should meet it - it's what a professional and well run company does. Twitter updates don't count BTW

I agree it's difficult to put values on individual contracts but they could say things like as a result of the new contracts signed in 2021 H1 2021 revenues are significantly ahead of H1 2020 etc.

In terms of SP fall , some have suggested it's partly due to the delay in WeShop. Last week's update was underwhelming regarding this and it's unclear what progress, if any, is being made.
I did think that the non core assets weren't really being factored into the SP however, WeShop has a decent valuation on the accounts so could be say 20% of the company's valuation.

Still think to get the SP moving BRSD need to continue getting new contracts and show that revenues are increasing significantly whilst managing costs. The higher loss in 2020 than 2019 was unexpected and this may have unnerved a few

yes and it also mentions this is one of a number that has been signed in June, so progress is good.

Guessing the majority of contracts are quite small so are not RNSed so to announce this one indicates it is of a decent size.

Now for a good presentation later today to get some momentum back in the SP

pretty poor - have had 6 months to get these sorted and then blaming a footie match for being late.

Let's hope they are not trying to delay bad news

https://twitter.com/jasontebb?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

another 42 agents signed up - not quite the progress of the last month or so but still higher than last year when it was 20 or so every week.

yes good point Pick - the sell on news brigade have missed a point. STX dropped massively from Dec 2020 due to telling everyone a deal was close, almost nailed on, and then it didn't happen. This damaged sentiment massively. Therefore, when it came to the placing it was done at a much lower price than could have been achieved a few months prior.

Having stated Q2 launch it was imperative that this date was met, even though in the grand scheme of things a few weeks either way is irrelevant . In terms of the 30 salespeople i was less bothered - firstly you arguably don't need all 30 on day 1 and also in case people were working notice periods etc they might not be ready to start by 30/6. As it is they are so this is pretty much a big bang launch.

In terms of newsflow i am hoping we might get a few updates prior to mid year in Sept. First revenues hitting the bank account would be well received and this could be in the next month or so etc.

The only risk IMHO is if take up is a little slower than anticipated. With US costs of c$30m a year (top end of guidance) that's $2.5m a month. Getting to monthly breakeven is a massive milestone. This is expected in month 15 to 18 (so Sept 2022 to Dec 2022) - i'm hoping this could be achieved in Q2 2022, a year from now.

IMHO we just need to relax a little. CS is prone to getting a bit ahead of himself and often states slightly shorter timescales than the reality.
I first met him in late Feb 2020. He stated he would announce one contract a month that night following on from a January 2020 contract. In the Q&A i pointed out that it was late Feb so could we get a RNS that week. He smiled and said maybe, if not 2 in March. A contract dropped on 6th March and the next in early May. The share price was 6p then BTW. My point is that CF often gets a bit ahead of himself but ultimately he does deliver in the end.

I think the insider info he has is related to the CHIM, however, he can't announce this without approval to do so, hence the small delay. It will come.

Finally, in terms of his wealth and how much he may invest in ORPH shares i think we need to be realistic. When he first invested in ORPH he joked that his wife wasn't happy that he put a large % of their savings into it - c£2m i think. In the Jan 2020 fundraise he added another £300k. In the next fundraise at 11p he didn't buy any.
So i would expect maybe £250k tops, especially as he is contributing to Poolbeg.

IMHO the amount is almost irrelevant - if he does buy more that's a massive positive as he clearly doesn't need anymore.

Justin Waite bought 3% of the company as per RNS on 7th June. Now told all is followers so share price is rising.

He always researches well so it's a positive for BIOM, however, as ever he gets his position sorted before telling anyone and then benefits from the share price rise. He's already 30% up

Just watched this via the link on the STX website (you need to sign in before you get access).

The slides are pretty much the same as those that have been in place for a few months. as expected but a few things i gleaned are:
1. Greg comes across as assured and confident - a big improvement on previous CEO
2. All 30 salespeople in place - great news, i thought we might be building up to 30 after day 1 launch
3. Greg mentioned the option of combining Accrufer with IV - i have mentioned this before, but it's the first time STX has said so to my knowledge. Get iron levels up via IV and then use Accrufer to kept them there
4. 2.3m iv injections in US last year at a cost of c$1.2bn so each IV costs c$500 - i think average number of IVs per patient is 3
5. The number of clinicians to contact has increased - previously i think they quoted c15k write 70% of business. Now a higher number for c60% of iron prescriptions

First impressions are that Greg knows his stuff and there is a clear plan in place that is now being worked through.

Accrufer is not a cheap product but there is a clear unmet need and the US model should be easier to access that say the UK where the focus is all on cost rather than cost effectiveness.

Exciting times ahead.

After FDA approval this share was almost £2 - so c £230m valuation, now it is half this valuation and clearly in a better position. I'm happy to hold

as of the last accounts intangible assets totalled £7.8m which is quite high for a company valued at c£10m.

Almost certainly the customer list value of just over £3m will be reduced/eliminated. These costs should really be recognised as costs so arguably IDP has over inflated profits over the last 5 years or so.

The other biggie is c£1.7m for Growlase a product that we are not actively selling. This is a legacy of an older product Leimo which was sold only in Australia and has been discontinued. This is c3 times the value of Skinny Tan goodwill so is clearly massively wrong. I can see this being reduced by maybe 90%.

There is also £1.5m assigned as Intellectual Property (Ergon). I think this relates to our purchase of Prolong. As we paid £1m for this i'm not sure how the IP can be valued at a higher amount. I can see this being reduced by c80%.

Based on these 3 i can see c£5m of the £7.8m being written off .

It will be difficult to spin this as a positive despite it not having a cash impact.