Member Info for shandypants2

2 separate 100k purchases in last few hours, both at 56.90 and no effect on the SP. Expect to see more big trades go through after hours as it appears someone's building a big stake.
Looks promising

yes, price action since the results is a concern. Results were pretty much a known from the Feb update (when share price was c24p) although the increased loss was a little disappointing.

Anyway, on a rainy morning in Scotland i've had a look at the recently announced financials via the brandshield website. As it's the first year of trading the the spin off only happened in December it is quite difficult to do a year on year comparison.

Headlines up that whilst revenues were up and also gross profit (increased from c$1m to c$1.5m) the expenses increased by c$2m so the loss widened. About $1.4m is attributed to spin off costs so that still leaves an increase of over $500k. Now when i've tried to look at these expenses the associated note (number 7) only lists a sub set of these costs and they haven't risen much despite additional staff. I will email the company and ask why the expenses aren't broken down in full and why they don't equate to the amount in the accounts. A little concerning IMHO.

The update since YE is encouraging with ARR up over 90% and new contract numbers looking good. Some companies give an updated cash position at this time. BRSD didn't. Not necessarily a negative but could indicate that cash is getting lower.

The only other point i have noticed is the ridiculous amount of warrants issued in Dec 2020 (30m in total). There were some old historical ones, but loads of news ones have been issued up to 2030 at a price of about 9p a share. I'm personally not a great fan of warrants and definitely not at such a discount.

I think the H1 trading update should provide more info as to progress. I will be very interested in the cash figure and we want to avoid a discounted placing. I'm hoping BRSD will be profitable by late 2021 and long term am still very positive on this share

i agree but a missed profit target should have been RNSed months ago. A profit warning is a profit warning however you spin it. Progress is looking good and DVRG has great potential but if it is cash burning and loss making that is a concern. Only the other week we did a big placing despite GB telling us only a month or so beforehand that we had sufficient cash for the next 12 months. Hopefully, that is the last placing but i wouldn't bet my mortgage on it (if i had one)

wow you mean business Zahir - almost £20k purchase. Why not buy earlier in the week? When the presentation was announced for today it was pretty nailed on things were going to plan. You've been here a while, you know the story, i'm surprised you didn't take advantage of the little dip earlier in the week. Could be sitting on a 15% profit already if you had. Still not a bad price BTW, you will do well regardless

No the RNS sated they are hoping to release on the 28/6, and definitely no later than the 30/6. So not quite set in stone.

EBITDA positive in Q4, whilst encouraging, is reading between the lines an indication that the YE profit target of £250k was not met.
I would have expected the AGM to be just after YE results, not just before. Maybe GB is trying to get the good news in first!!

DVRG is clearly in a stronger position now and the recent fundraise has strengthened the balance sheet but based on the cash burn that will be reported next week 2020 was a challenging year

this is clearly good news, just let the dust settle. There will be a few 10%ers who bought in the last few days and are taking a quick profit and also there are still many placing shares at 30p. 60p has proved a resistance point a few times as this is the 100% profit point for those shares so some will be de-risking a bit at that level.
Let's see where we are at COB tomorrow , after CEO's presentation. I suspect once 60p goes it could rise quickly.

As an AIM company these need to be produced within 6 months so within the next 5 trading days.

Clearly GB will put a positive spin on them and we know revenue growth is impressive. However, broker forecast was for a maiden profit of £250k and i suspect this hasn't been achieved as GB only talks about revenues and never profit. Happy to be proved wrong.

yes, nice to see. Guessing a few decent buys in anticipation of new CEO presentation tomorrow. Just confirming end of June US launch or even that it is already started will go down well IMHO. Massive upside from here if US revenues get anywhere near estimates, and i think STX has been quite conservative with their figures.

the price for a treatment of accrufer (assume 6 months) is on a par with a single IV treatment. However, all additional costs are removed - hospital costs, nurse administering injection, monitoring of patient etc. These add ons i think are c50% of IV cost - there are details in a previous STX presentation maybe from late 2020 if you need more detailed info.

The short answer is price is similar but avoids all the add on hospital costs and inconvenience

early July i'd assume. Get YE done and then give some guidance in maybe 2nd week of July. I suspect it's been difficult to predict sales as lockdown has been a bit of a moving target. With £1m loss at H1 YE will definitely also be a loss, although a H2 is the most profitable period hopefully a fair chunk f H1 losses can be reversed.

Really need a strategy update too - more overseas deals, the plan for life sciences etc

Bots - so how are you pricing this then?

Revenues are growing at almost 100% and it's in a hot space. IMHO very difficult to put a definitive value on it. Could easily be 10 times current revenues which would take us over £30m valuation - currently £23m, so 30% upside.

Then there are non core assets - what value are you assigning to that?

It appears you recently sold out after posting quite a bit in early June so suspect you are trying to justify your sell or just want to get back in cheaper - both of which you should achieve!!

agree Scooby - we already knew the 2020 results so the big info was the 93% YoY ARR increase and also the 18 new contracts (22 for whole of 2020). So good progress is being made, although the impact on financials is unknown. I'm hoping 2021 will be a small maiden profit for BRSD.

WeShop could be a nice surprise at some point too - almost impossible to value ATM.

Personally i think this should be trading c25p but WTFDIK

Wally - just to reiterate my thanks for your excellent summary, once again. Please keep it up.

3 quick points
1. CF has said news soon and he can't buy yet due to price sensitive information. I assume the 2 are related so that's good for the share price in the next few days. The CHIM would be another £10m which would be great and no doubt why CF is confident of beating YE broker estimates. So all good there.

2. YE 2020 numbers were a little disappointing but clearly combining and then changing 2 loss making companies takes time. H1 2021 will be more important from a current valuation perspective. With say £50m rev and say £10m EBITDA for 2021 full year i think a £300m valuation for core OO is not unreasonable (currently £213m). 2022 rev due to grow 30% too.

3. Spin offs when they go ex div will not be like a cash dividend as the value of the spin off is less clear. People will estimate a value but it's not an exact science. Also remember the reason for these spin offs is twofold. Firstly some sit on balance sheet will no assign value so any spin off value is a bonus. Also CF feels to maximise value they are best as a stand alone entity. DIM is a great example of that. If say it is initially valued at c£70m so 10p a share then ORPH will reduce by that one ex date. However, CF feels this entity could grow quickly so a £200m valuation could happen in say 2 or 3 years. So a 10p drop on day 1 could become 30p in 2 years.

https://twitter.com/jasontebb/status/1402652801608650757

HI, it's via CEO, Jason Tebb, own twitter account - better than the OTMP one which is more of a marketing tool.
He's great BTW - message him and you will get an answer.

It was 139 estate agents too - i under reported it!!

thanks KS great summary. Good to see cash improve so much from H1 to H2 - i suspect much of this is down to the £10m cash down payment we got from UK gov is Oct/Nov.
DIM is still the biggie for me - this could be worth a significant amount if well managed. Data is such a valuable commodity and health data is the gold standard

Josh - when you have a contract dispute it is rare that it's a clear win or lose situation. Usually a compromise is reached, although clearly this can be more favourable for one party.
It is standard accounting practice to make a charge on the accounts, like a bad debt provision, if the dispute is still ongoing and this is what i think has occurred here . The amount set aside here is key, the lower the better.

In terms of Euro to £ we've never sold much in France and the majority of revenues has been ££ so the change is not a big deal IMHO

in RNS cash at 31/5 stated as £15.1m - at 31/12 it was £19m

I partly agree re the US CEO - no doubt we needed to offer him a big package to get him onboard but the outgoing CEO was 'awarded' over 600k share options at 1.5p in 2020 on top of his salary.

He is UK based and clearly failed to achieve his main objective for the year - getting a US commercial agreement - so there is no justification for this, and even if he hit other objectives, not sure why 600k shares. Maybe 50k or 100k would be more appropriate.

Anyway, moan over. New CEO is hopefully adding value and making sure the end of June date is met. Couldn't resist another little top up today as hoping for 70p plus when first US revenue RNS drops, hopefully in weeks not months.

"We have continued to make progress since the beginning of the current financial year with strong sales growth and larger orders as existing partners extend their product range and territories.

I particularly like the above sentence. Strong sales growth and larger orders. If this is compared with H1 last year (when results were ok) this bodes well for H1 2021 numbers

good summary Skid.

I like Elrico but you are right is financial analysis is often poor. Also a bit too chummy with SOH in interviews IMHO.

Proactive is essentially PR, but worthwhile.

I do think CEO should reduce interviews with TW etc and do more formal updates/presentations