Member Info for shandypants2

CRL now at over 90p. the 3 for 2 offer would now be worth 60p. Just saying

apropos - welcome.

IMHO i think the recent fall has just created a massive value gap so this is now slowly being filled, hence the SP tick up.

For me there are a couple of big price points for STX. One is at 60p (100% increase on discounted placing price) and the other is 90p which is a c£200m valuation (where we were after FDA approval in 2019, with no US sales).

After the disappointing discounted placing which damaged the SP the price slowly rose back to 60p which clearly resulted in a few new shares being sold/ positions de-risked.

The recent 1/7/21 US announcement was encouraging as we have (just) managed to ensure the Q2 timescales did not slip. However, now the hard work begins so it is likely that STX need a few months to determine progress and trends etc. I suspect being AIM a few sold off with the intention of revisiting in a few months. Maybe a 20% drop e.g. 60p to 50p ish was expected. However, with market uncertainty the price has continued dropping to almost 40p.

So to get back to 60p (only a £130m valuation) we now need a near 50% rise. IMHO buying at these prices is a no brainer.

Any positive news will get this back to over 60p pretty quickly IMHO (and some may bank their 50% gain).

However, is say the end of year update (Jan or Feb 2022??) states we are ahead of schedule or exceeding expectations etc then the 90p will go quite quickly IMHO.

good post retire.

A mixed bag IMHO. STC seems to be progressing quite well and the recent raise was clearly part earmarked for expansion here. Wording of the update is a little confusing though, hence the comments. Need to android app to be launched but clearly waiting for capacity to be expanded first.

Chinese deal will be transformational and is clearly quite complex. A delay is no biggie in the grand scheme of things but GB does let himself down with his twitter posting (not for the first time).

Breathe test news would have been nice but i'm guessing the current SP has discounted this completely since the spike to 70p last year.

I wasn't expecting any financials updates but as they previously guided £10m rev no news is good news IMHO

DVRG is clearly aming progress on a number of fronts and with the placing money now has the finance to push on across a number of fronts. Not all will be successful but if only 2 or 3 come to fruition then this company will be worth a lot more than it's current valuation.

Hopefully GB is on form later today

Just to let you know last month via investor relations i emailed the company asking for details of the expenses listed on their annual accounts (as the details provided don't equate to the top line number reported) and also about the warrants as they have millions still outstanding , many at quite low prices.

Anyway after a few chasers they did finally respond on the warrants - supposedly they are old warrants and any new ones issues have been at the 20p placing price.

I was told they would get back to me regarding the expenses. It is now 1 month since my initial email and still no reply. It is a pretty standard question so i have emailed them again to chase them up and let them know how disappointed i am in their lack of response to a shareholder.

Pretty poor investor relations.

just started 83.80p. I'll increase if it drops further

https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/akebia-keryx-to-merge-creating-1b-kidney-disease-company/526761/

Also interesting is the timing of the merger. 6 months after CKD approval for Auryxia and sales rising c80% as a result the 2 companies merged creating a $1bn combined company - so Keryx was valued at c$500m despite revenues being a fraction of that valuation.

If Accrufer revenues are decent in first 1 or 2 years the bigger pharmas will sit up and notice.

Redwine - STX approach seems to be sensible IMHO - allocating resources to the highest prescribers first and then working down. It's a cost effective approach and this data is widely available in the US (less so in other countries).
100 doctors/consultants write 1,000 iron supplement prescriptions per year so that's 100k. Getting 10% of this market pretty quickly doesn't seem that hard - 10k at $1k each (assuming a few months of pills per prescription) is $10m alone.
The only risk i can see is that traction could be slower than we would like and it takes time for revenues to grow. However, i think revenues estimates are quite conservative so there is contingency build in.

Keryx and Akebia Therapeutics merged in late 2018 so finances are a little confusing but i've done some digging and it appears Auryxia was definitely not an overnight success.

In fact it's early years performance was poor. However, in late 2017 FDA extended its use for CKD and that's when sales appeared to kick off.

Based on the financials below it appears revenues were
2017 = c$56m, 2018 = $96m and 2019 = $111. The confusion was caused by the merger in Dec 2018 when 2018 revs were quoted as $6.8m (but clearly for only 1 month of the year, post merger).

What is encouraging is that without CKD FDA approval Keryx still managed $56m revenues in 2017. Not only is Accrufer a better product but it has much wider FDA approval (both IBD and CKD etc). Obviously we are coming from a zero start but half of that in Year 1 would at least cover costs.

Auryxia
• Pro forma unaudited Auryxia sales in 2018 were $96 million, representing 72% growth over 2017.
• Total Auryxia prescriptions for 2018 were approximately 163,000, representing 85% growth over 2017.

• Net product revenue was $28.9 million for the fourth quarter of 2019 compared with $6.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2018(1), and $111.1 million for the full-year 2019 compared to $6.8 million for the full-year 2018(1). Pro forma net product revenue for the full-year 2018, inclusive of pre-merger net product revenue recorded by Keryx Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. (Keryx), was approximately $96 million.

Easier to buy now - all the 41.30 trades are purchases , including one of mine

CRL and BAR recently reported decent results. It just shows that even with the impact of covid small(ish) companies can still thrive within the personal care market competing alongside the big boys.

Hopefully this bodes well for IDP

Lewis - retailers are struggling, they are not saying they aren't stocking stuff now, but the supply chain is stretched and there may be issues in the coming days/weeks/months.
Your evidence that 2 supermarkets were stocked this week is pretty poor BTW.
Govt lies? They are doing everything to not bring it to the public's attention and the predominantly right wing media seem happy to oblige.
It is the perfect storm - our just in time food chain is suffering from Brexit (less drivers, less pickers etc) and now that test and trace is finally working people are being told to self isolate.

Whatnone - do you think part of the dispute is centred around training NHS staff to use the Q16/32s? I suspect they were trained by NCYT as per the contract but when hospitals became overrun and staff were self isolating or off sick things fell down. Therefore it was put in a corner and ignored by many hospitals.
A better product Promate was then produced and this has given DHSC a window to try and worm out of paying

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-megalab-opens-to-bolster-fight-against-covid-19

apologies if already posted - not sure if this is good or bad for NCYT

https://www.poolbegpharma.com/investors/aim-rule-26/

Should there be some director and TR1 RNSs? Schroder has over 4% for example.

CF has a lot of shares. I estimate he was given c15m 'free' shares from his ORPH holding and he states he purchased £500k so another 5m shares. According to the website he has over 36m.

Also notice our new CEO hasn't bought any - a little disappointing

Wilson - i will await revenue figures from those framework agreements and USA sales etc before (politely) agreeing/disagreeing.

Similarly cash at H1 will be interesting to see if these revenues are hitting the bottom line (or being used to R&D and legal fees etc).

With covid not going away and flu meant to resurface later in 2021 maybe winterplex will be in demand too.

However, until progress is made with DHSC it is difficult to see short term SP sentiment improve much.

yes HL are ****. Ignore the 'cost' assigned to your shares. At some point HL might link these shares to the current POLB price too. Unfortunately HL customer services/ corporate actions division has been shockingly poor for the last year

Porky , i hope you are right however, it's a bit disingenuous to claim a solid H1 when the biggest client by far is refusing to pay for any of Q1 invoices and isn't ordering anymore and Q2 numbers have not been reported.

The dispute is also impacting reported 2020 revenues too.

Until the DHSC dispute is resolved and we start getting visibility of other big orders (e.g. what % of rev is USA ?) i can't see this moving much. Obviously i hope i'm wrong

Kitzie - please tell me you know that the SP of a share is almost irrelevant it's the market cap that is important. Avon Rubber is £25 a share so we can get to that level!!!

It's market cap is c£750m NCYT is c£250 so 3 times bigger. So at £10.50 we'll be at £750m market cap.

At £25 NCYT will be value at nearer £2bn.

Red - it is economical if the person has medical insurance (which a large % of Americans have). If salt based tablets fail the only alternative is IV (which is extreme and more expensive). The longer term cost effectiveness of Accrufer can be justified. Similarly rather than having IV say every 6 months having IV followed by Accrufer makes sense from both a cost and customer care perspective.

In UK as NHS appear to make decisions based on cost i don't think long term cost effectiveness is taken into account

there will be DNAs in place as they rarely mention the company too. Unfortunately ££ will definitely be a no no.

They've stated it's a SME so won't be massive (IMHO) - i think at recent presentation they said the average was c$50k.

I suspect today's RNS is more to show that progress is continuing and they are getting contracts in a new sector (personal care) - and it's not just one contract, as they've mentioned in the RNS.

I'm guessing we will never get a 'blow the doors off' contract RNS but lots of smaller one that will also lead to repeat business.

Think they had 22 new contracts in 2020 and in May they stated they've had 18 new ones so far in 2021. If we could beat the 2020 level at H1 that would be a positive. It would be nice if they could say what the ££ of these contracts was in relation to 2020 too, but suspect not.

All we know is that this is a growing company in a hot sector - hopefully H1 numbers will evidence growth momentum is being maintained

asid - a 47p average is fantastic , in the longer term you will be well rewarded.

Had to buy a few more myself at 40p as that was just too cheap, although my average is a lot higher!

Patience is needed here - i have emailed STX re updates and they were non committal pointing out that any trends etc from US would take a while to determine. We might have to wait until Sept H1 update to get any update on progress. Having said that i'm hoping new CEO will want to announce something sooner to show he's adding value.

Don't forget 1% of US iron market is still c$100mand we are currently valued at £90m