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incredible. Over 200 agents signed up in the last 10 days. Serious progress.

Get these signed onto full paying contracts after the introduction period and revenue growth is almost guaranteed.

New CEO is adding value and making great progress

Thanks Doc N - very informative.

Do patients really have such regular - weekly - follow up? If so that's great.

I know 2 people who have low iron and have done for years (one a family member after colon cancer) and they seem to just get a 3 month supply of the low cost salt tablets. It is reviewed after this date, but clearly a few times a year not weekly. With covid i can't see this getting any better.

STX has already stated they have identified 100 odd super prescribers who prescribe over 1,000 iron supplements a year (so 20 a week).
These guys should be contacted in week 1 so hopefully revenues from them could start quickly.

good summary PD. Also worth noting from Cummings comments yesterday, whether you like him or not, challenge studies are an essential tool in getting vaccines tested quickly.
Every govt will be looking at their response to covid and will be ensuring they are better prepared next time and CS will form a vital part of that plan.
With so few companies being able to undertake a CS that puts ORPH in a great position and clearly larger companies will know this.

re Lloyds 6 month deal signed on 11/12/20 i'm guessing there will be some lead time to incorporate the software into Lloyds systems. I was expecting this contract to run from early 2021 however thinking about it this integration could easily take 3 or so months so the actual start date could easily be March (ish). If so we might not hear about progress for a bit longer.

Looking at financials for YE 31/12/20 i'm guessing not much of this contract, if any, was included in these figures which in a way is good as it will make 2021 numbers even better (and 2020 revenues increased by 100% anyway).

Raised £3.2m cash at launch and still had over £3m of this at 31/12. Since then a number of warrants have been cashed so that's a decent 6 figure amount hitting the bank account.
BRSD are upping their marketing spend and launching new products will cost money but i doubt cash is required unless for an acquisition. Let's see what cash position is at next update.

i wasn't disagreeing.

Revenues may take a little while to start coming in BTW, just to manage expectations. Even if a doctor buys into the product on day 1 he/she will need to right patient to come forward or finish using an alternative product. This could all take a few months.

he makes a good point thought. To speed vaccine testing up challenge studies are the way to go and he acknowledged that other pandemics will occur. So we need a fast track vaccine testing regime set up.
Who is the leading CS company??

Thanks Milky - great info. Can i ask how you volunteered for this study - were you approached etc.

Were you paid expenses? Were the results/improvements independently validated e.g. via your doctor, or was this done via the photos and questionnaires you returned.

Thanks in advance

Kapkina - interesting first post.

Is BG the answer? None of us know. However, he is one of 4 senior managers we headhunted from a US competitor so he is not working alone.
Also, if you look at the US sales model it is not rocket science. The US market seems far more standardised than other countries and information is readily available.
We know who is prescribing iron supplements and the quantities of these prescriptions. Therefore, as has been mentioned by STX many times over the last few months they will target the top 30% of prescribers which covers 80% of the market size.
The product is good, if a little expensive, so a half decent sales team should be able to get doctors interested.

Finally the estimated revenue projections are quite conservative. the year 3 $100m revenue target is just 2% of the iron supplement market.

If by year 5 we hit $200m revenue (target is $300m to $400m BTW) that's a net profit of over $130m so let's say £100m.
That's a £1bn company even using the most conservative valuation.

The risk v reward is compelling

SKIN is valued at over £100m - great progress being made but still no revenues, OPTI is less than £50m and this includes a fair chunk of SKIN. The 2 valuations just don't add up.

Clearly sentiment is playing a big part. OPTI progress has been much slower than expected over the last few years, despite the revenue increases . SKIN is making great progress and this potential is clearly being factored in to the SP

or is this being put in place because cash is low ?
They must be burning through the limited cash they have and the loan they received could now be fully drawn down.
Hopefully a decent order or two will come in but i've been hoping for a few years now

Not trying to be too negative merely showing an alternative view

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/950179/shield-therapeutics-doing-its-homework-ahead-of-launch-next-month-of-accrufer-in-the-us-950179.html

summary of RNS on Proactive Investors. Decent comments by Pell Hunt too

it's a solid RNS, but won't blow the doors off.
We are still on track for launch at end of June, which is great, but this is of course the date the company previously guided so will have had some contingency built in.
Tim is quite good and pointing out the potential pitfulls (things out of our control) without doing the same with the positives.
If 30 staff are to be employed by early June (so some of these may join earlier) he could have stated they are implementing a staged approach to selling and the first contact with doctors will commence in say mid June.
Sales will take a while it will take time for doctors to understand the product and read the supporting literature and then the right patients need to turn up who could benefit from the product.
Previously STX has stated they have identified 100 super prescribers who prescribe over 1,000 iron doses as year.
Clearly these will be contacted first - but why not start the process now? It's a phone call and then marketing stuff sent in the post, followed by a further call maybe a week or so later.

Anyway, hopefully a slow and steady rise into the 60s and hopefully the 70s based on what we do know.

3 decent RNSs this week and a recommendation in Share Magazine so a good week IMHO

agree Pondering - 4th March RNS doesn't mention a further raise and CEO definitely said they were fully funded following the last raise. Sentiment has already been damaged since the last raise so this will go down like a lead balloon, if true.

What a frustrating share - surely as we are weeks away from our first revenue a short term overdraft /loan could be used if funding is required.

https://twitter.com/TonySwiericzuk?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

It appears all is progressing nicely - premium SOP production is imminent according to the main man!!!

CEO was on V O X markets yesterday re US OTC launch. He mentioned US launch a couple of times. Comments were 'in a few weeks' and 'soon', i think, so we are definitely on track.

We know we have a tie in with Iqvia which hasn't been RNSed so i fully expect a formal progress update later this week, as advised (mid May).
Incidentally launch will be starting to sale, not revenue generating, we might need to wait a little while for that

Comparisons with IV are always difficult and potentially unfair as the way the 2 treatments work is completely different.
IV gives a massive iron dose on day 1 and then if iron levels dip within the test period (usually 52 weeks) they get a top up, so the iron levels of these participants will always be high.
Feraccru (2 tablets a day) builds iron slowly and maintains the level when it has risen so short term it can never compete with IV.

However, as the conclusion states
“Thus, ferric maltol offers a simple, well tolerated and cost-effective long-term treatment solution of chronic IDA [iron-deficiency anaemia] in patients with IBD [inflammatory bowel disease]," concluded lead author, Dr Stephanie Howaldt.

IV will always be required for people will extreme iron deficiency levels, however, Feracrru has 2 fantastic opportunities.
It is much better than the salt based alternatives, however, these are usually given as they are cheap. This will no doubt be the main market.

The other one, which has had little focus is working alongside IV. Once a patient has been given IV they can then be prescribed feraccru to keep their iron levels topped up (something the IV can't do). This will eliminate the need for repeat visits to hospital. Some people need 2 or 3 visits to hospital every year as they can't naturally maintain iron in their bodies.

Bob - yes they are open but there is still social distancing restrictions within indoor venues.

Not only that some people are reluctant to do things whilst these restrictions are in place. June 21st is a big date for all indoor venues - if this date gets pushed back it clearly won't help. That's my point.

Incidentally who is the ESC target market? Those who haven't had the vaccine. What is in the news this morning - all about the need for a vaccine to counter the Indian variant.

Supposedly retail footfall was lower yesterday than the week before - maybe your general comment that people have had enough of lockdowns is a wish rather than a fact.

Results not great today, no doubt bob will tell us this is old news etc

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57146632

this won't help reopening or general sentiment regarding indoor activities.

Let's hope it can be kept under control

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/900636/shield-therapeutics-takes-us-listing-as-it-prepares-for-american-launch-of-accrufer-900636.html

Proactive write up and interview with super Tim. Q2 US launch reiterated