Member Info for shandypants2

https://twitter.com/jasontebb?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

wow 66 new estate agents signed up in the last week or so. Usually this is c20 a week, so new CEO is making progress.

Hopefully financials are as healthy.

it is a (small) step in the right direction.

We wouldn't be listing in the US if we weren't selling their in the near term. Hopefully this will be confirmed later this week.

good point Glyn.

Usually 1 g per tonne is regarded as good - we have almost 4 times that.

Here is a press release from last year - Ladrador Gold were pleased with 0.1g per tonne!!!
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/11/16/2127277/0/en/Labrador-Gold-Announces-High-Grade-Gold-in-Soil-Samples-at-Kingsway-Property.html

no probs - just explaining where the original 42p came from.

As long as lake 2 and then 3 can be funded without further dilution this should definitely be £1 minimum and with 9 lakes in total your longer term target is very achievable.

Current SP is very frustrating , really though this would start rising by now as we close in on first sales in a few weeks.

Yes but the RNS has also stated this...

Discussions in respect of opportunities that have been presented to the Company are at a very early stage and no agreement has been made with any of the relevant target companies or businesses. Therefore, there is no certainty that any of the current discussions will progress further and/or result in the Company concluding a transaction.

Demon - not sure you can say the RF will generate £46m in 2021. This is the full cost of the entire contract, essentially 4 different CSs. We are doing the first one now. Not sure the other 3 are guaranteed and even if they are unlikely more than 1 of them will be in 2021 purely based on timings (unless i've misunderstood how the contract will work).

I do agree with your overall point though, the brokers have underestimated revenues

LV - to alleviate your concerns STX took the management team from Acasti Pharma in the US so these guys do have the experience of launching / selling new drugs in the US.

Also, the target market is via doctors who prescribe iron supplements. This data is readily available (for a price) so STX can focus on the high prescribers.
Supposedly each doctor on average prescribes 15 iron supplements per year. STX has identified all those who do more than 250 a year and they know the 100 who prescibe over 1,000 per year.
It doesn't seem rocket science to me to target effort on the big prescribers - the 80:20 rule.

Finally cost was estimated at $30m to $40m to get this profitable. $40m has been raised (so top end) and revenue targets and timelines look reasonably conservative IMHO.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ZqdKDZpUBs

this guy has a decent following. All current investors will know the content but quite well explained.

i think CEO is quite a cautious person so has never committed to an actual date for US launch, hence the Q2 2021 timeline.

I did question this and he told me he was reluctant to be more specific as a week or two delay would be poorly received and clearly there area number of moving parts that are sometimes out of your control.

IMHO the Q2 date will be met but what does launch day 1 actually look like?

Undoubtedly not every salesperson will be recruited on day 1 - this is pretty standard. They have identified 100 super prescribers , surely they only need 4 or 5 people to contact them.
Similarly they are undertaking some marketing to increase the product awareness. Not all of this needs to be ready for day1.

For me the big date is when revenues start coming in and i suppose that cannot be guaranteed, hence the vague dates.

What STX need to avoid is a poorly worded update though as any perceived delay will not be well received.

Zahir - i haven't forgotten your ramp from almost a month ago. I think you may get your 60p this week!!!

just for clarification, the 42p valuation wasn't mine, it was Bobby B - i was merely articulating how this valuation can be justified based on the 1st lake (and using a very conservative PE).

Clearly if you add on 2 more lakes, which is the medium term target, then you could potentially treble this.

However, as we are at c23p today and yet only weeks away from 1st revenues, i'd take 42p in the next few months.

A higher valuation may only occur if company confirms revenues from lake 1 can fund lake 2 without any further dilution, which was the original plan. Since then we've had a further placing on lake 1 which has clearly dented sentiment

Nickle - you do realise that in addition to the 'small spin off' you mention there are 3 larger ones. DIM 'could' be worth more than ORPH is currently valued at. The SP has risen in anticipation of these. Similarly if you re-read todays RNS it appears there is a strong possibility that there will be additional follow on contracts.
Maybe AIM isn't for you

yes, both excellent appointments with the right experience to take STX forward. IMHO also reinforces US launch progress - why come on board otherwise.
69p values STX at £150m. Confirmation of Q2 US launch dates in the next week or so should hopefully get this back to this level

yes Miton are no mugs. If they're invested it's a very positive sign

Fud it's a legal requirement to have the result independently approved by the auditors before being formally released. This can't be used as an excuse for any delay - not that there has been one, as per AIM rules they have 6 months to publish annual accounts.

https://www.hardmanandco.com/research/corporate-research/reload-a-mountain-of-copper-silver-and-gold/

Agree. Hardman's conservative target is 60p based on current known resources and copper is c25% higher now.

Steve, this is not always the case and the NOMAD would have insisted the potential need for financing was mentioned if the company was exploring these options.
STX did the same in Dec - were also looking at a debt option and then a few months later concluded that a discounted placing was the best option. By then the share price had more than halved.

was it last October this went up to 32p quite quickly and then slowly back down to the 25p range where it stayed for a few months.
This price action looks similar. A quick run up to 47p and slowly back down to 38p (ish).

I don't think we'll see 32p range again - next move up will be in the 55 to 60p range when spin off values can be better quantified.
YE financials and additional contracts could also provide some upwards momentum

Boots are offering discounts for the whole skinny tan range, including the new products.

Hopefully with peak tanning and relaxation in social distancing etc this is well timed.

https://www.boots.com/brands/skinny-tan

checked a few locations near me (Manchester) and all seem to have loads of free slots available to book.

Don't think May 17th will see people queueing round the block for this one. May need to wait until later in the summer to see significant numbers.