Member Info for shandypants2

yes the 24.5% in Skin is now worth £26m - and total market cap is just £46m so that's £20m for Opti.

Amazingly low valuation IMHO.

Hopefully a positive Q1 update plus audited YE numbers ( which should be higher based on extra royalty payments) will get the SP moving

good post BH. I will be happier if CB says we were offered a JV but didn't feel it offered shareholder value and by doing more drilling we are convinced we can improve the resource and use this to negotiate better terms etc.

Suggests to me that current results are not conclusive - not necessarily a negative e.g. it could highlight further intersections that need exploring etc

yes, about time.

Notice the Feb payment (not the arrears) was only slightly higher than Jan - $17.5m v $17.1m.

I thought it might be slightly higher based on crude prices in Feb v Jan.

Assuming March payments will be similar - both oil sales and arrears. Is this a fair assumption??

yes agree, hopefully things will slowly improve. The valuation of NCYT was always very low based on 2020 profits and cash position so even a more modest profit for 2021 could see an increase in the SP.
On the week where the UK govt has reinforced the importance of PCR testing - every foreign traveller will need 3 PCR tests - i cannot see how NCYT will not be making money for a significant period of time.
Many experts are already saying a 3rd wave is inevitable in autumn/winter 2021 too

Hi, i think i had £50m EBITDA per annum based on 1 lake based on previous presentations.

Even on the lowest PE ever of 5 that's a £250m valuation. Based on a PE of 10 that's £500m. Medium term target is 3 lakes so there is massive upside potential.

Clearly last placing/dilution has hurt sentiment but eventually the numbers will talk

thanks - good the focus of this presentation is on US launch as others have been more STX in general with US bolted on.

In year 5 sales of $300m would generate $225m profit so c£165m. At a conservative PE of 15 that's c£2.5bn valuation. We can dream.

Progress slide re US rollout looks promises - BTW outsourcing the salesforce is not a big issue, these guys will still be dedicated 100% of Accrufer. Just means we don't need to develop our own systems etc these people come all ready to start on day 1 (following some STX specific training i presume).
CEO mentioned they were considering this option so it appears the decision has been made.

If only we could have a CEO like ORPH - CF speaks and the share price responds. Tim does similar and we are down 5%!!!

Boomin have done well to launch this from a zero start, but i think they have 5k agents and OTMP has c15k - RM has nearer 20k.

OTMP's new CEO has been quite quiet since his appointment. Now he has his feet under the table he needs to update the strategy and progress etc. We are gaining new agents each week and hopefully are converting some of the introduction offers into full payers (as even full price is about 1/8th of what RM charge). The instant valuation tool is quite useful so hopefully that has helped too.

I'm looking at properties now and always use 2 websites as none have full coverage.
OTMP doesn't need to be another RM just a good second choice.
Does seem very undervalued ATM but not on many people's radar

good point theory - payment is late again so KRG clearly can't be trusted.
IMHO i'm not sure i'd be investing anymore money until the payment situation is resolved.

It clearly won't help with any potential purchasers or partners too

disappointed with this raise mainly as ECR has £4m of cash so should have sufficient cash for 2021 activities. A JV was also discussed by the CEO - i didn't expect this but it was clearly mentioned by him to show there was interest.
Botts your comments are unfair - everyone buys a share to make money and recent comments from the CEO will have been taken at face value.
Hopefully this is the bottom and we can move on from here

more good coverage - infrastructure 95% complete now. Revenues only 2 to 3 months away now yet share price going sideways

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/945875/salt-lake-potash-well-positioned-for-first-production-and-sop-sales-during-june-quarter-after-reaching-key-milestones-in-half-year-ended-december-2020-945875.html

From this week's presentation we now pretty much know the sequence of the non core asset being spun off. CF mentioned not having full ownership has slowed things down.

So this month it looks likely that it will be the Immune Modulator.
Soon after Prep Biopharm (where ORPH owns 62.6% - so can dictate things).

Immutex seems a bit slower as Orph has a 49% share - Seek own the 51%. So maybe Q3 i'd guess

DIM is the potential big money spinner and i think CF mentioned before xmas.

I think Immutex has been mentioned ar c$200m so half to Orph, and DIM is potential worth as much as Orph's current valuation - so maybe £250m.

Any ideas what The Immune Modulator and Prep Biopharm valuations could be?

I spoke to Tim this week. No surprises, always professional and keeps everything close to his chest.

Re-iterated the 15 to 18 month breakeven for USA, but did say the US rev figures were on the conservative side.

I pushed him on the Q2 US launch date and he is committed to it but wouldn't be drawn on timings. I pointed out that if he could get this up and running by say mid to late May, rather than late June this would be seen positively. As they have identified 100 doctors who prescribe the most iron supplements they didn't need a full sales team to start making contacting them and he did agree.
However, he also stated he didn't want to issue a RNS with a specific date and then miss it by a week so would have to re RNS.
I do think we will hear on progress in the next 4 to 6 weeks though.

For me 60p is fair value without the US set up (based on 110p Dec 2020 price before the new shares were issued) so once US revenues start coming in (and Tim said these should start pretty quickly - i expected a bit of a lag) i can see this going back to £1.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/IDP/proposed-placing-and-proposed-open-offer-fv5e0mftls3vy2f.html

Details here - 35p a share

35p placing price. Only a few million have been issued thus far as AGM was required for the remainder. I would perhaps wait a few more weeks and let these hit the market as this can often suppress the share price.
Anything under 40p looks decent value in the longer term.
H1 numbers were terrible and i'm not expecting a fantastic H2 as lockdown progress is slow so full year numbers may not be brilliant.
Progress of strategy is perhaps the biggie here as new BOD seem to be focused on turning this round.

re BOD purchases.

Both CEO and initial part founder NED both bought heavily in the placing - CEO bought 1m shares and also 2 lots of 100k in open market at 60p and 69p i think.
Chairman has bought 500k in open market in the last few months, but surprisingly none in the placing.
1 NED, Hoffman, owns no shares and bought none in the placing - what a joke.
The other NED, Peter Llewellyn-Davies, already owed 10k shares. His recent placing purchase was his 2 for 17 allocation. Pretty pathetic really.
The founder and CEO are closest to the business so them buying heavily bodes well .

News of US set up completion (in Q2, so probably June time) should see this higher, although anything under 70p (a £150m valuation) looks quite cheap in the medium term .
2023 estimated profit should value STX a c£500m based on a conservative PE

i hope you are right. news on a couple of spin offs would be good, but for me the really big one is DIM, and i'm determined to sit on my hands until that gets properly rolled out. As CF repeatedly says it could be worth more than the current value of ORPH. With the current covid SC getting some covid data included can only increase demand and the potential revenue from this data.

Callia - what a horrible post.

Have you never tripped when going up stairs? I know i have.
Biden has a stammer so speaks slowly is his way of managing it. Has worked quite well for him as he's been a senior politician for a number of years.
He's now slowly getting on top of covid, something Trump just ignored.
He's also announced a $1.9tn relief package which appears to be what a real govt does.
Pretty sure Russia isn't blackmailing him too with videos of him with hookers

Q2, probably back end so hopefully we will start selling/targeting doctors/pharamicists in June

https://www.shieldtherapeutics.com/aim-rule-26/

talking of which where are the TR1s? Timeline is meant to be 2 days for UK and 4 days for overseas investors.
STX hasn't even updated the directors shares and % yet.

I'm guessing the 68% of total shares held by significant shareholders will be reduced to les than 50%. Maybe a few after hour RNSs will arrive - seems to be the STX way

IMHO DIS has benefitted from increased supermarket sales due to pubs being shut. The pub industry is very competitive and lots of the larger players offer chains discounts, something DIS can compete with.
I'm not sure the pubs re-opening will have much impact, potentially it could be negative if supermarket sales decline as a result.