Member Info for shandypants2

Hi ,when CF mentioned this recently was this in relation to OO as a whole (so dual listing) or for a spin off e.g. Immutex?

Thanks in advance

and right on cue here is the deramping.

Some of the 30p placers could have derisked a little and forward sold on Monday when price was over 40p - a 35% profit, hence the slow decline of the share price this week.

For those who don't know whilst sentiment is a massive drag on the share price (75% decline in last 3 or so months) shares should be forward valued.
in 2 years time we should be selling $100m in US and China should be generating revenues.
Norgine should also be selling across all main countries in the Europe (just UK and Germany currently) plus Australia and NZ.
This time last year we dropped from £1.80 to c50p - it was back up to £1.40 six months later. Not saying we'll see this level of rise but 50p in a few months seems realistic.

Incidentally Inventages our largest shareholder (47%) whilst approving the fundraise do not appear to have participated. Therefore a Tr1 will appear in the next few weeks showing their holdings being reduced from 47% to c25%. They haven't sold any but no doubt people will jump on this and post negative comments. You've been pre warned

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/942561/shield-therapeutics-raise-25m-to-launch-accrufer-in-us--offering-shareholders-so-much-more-value--942561.html
Not sure if this has already been posted.

Standard Tim really, lighting really poor and fails to show any natural enthusiasm despite saying that even with conservative sales estimates this should be generating over $100m in year 3 at 90% gross margin.

A few decent comments - fully funded now (top end of cost estimate was $40m - dollars not GBP - so ignore the scaremongers!!) , a lot of the preparation has already been completed and ready to start selling in May /June.

Don't forget they have already identified the top 11k doctors/pharmacists to target.

Short term there will be pain but ignore the doomsters - this is a big market and China revenues should also start in 2023
- why would Ask pay 2 lots of $11.5m plus the cost of the trial in China so c $30m in total if this wasn't a viable product?

DavidHos - don't worry recent progress has been slow but CF will deliver and the share price will eventually the reflect the value ( 50p plus IMHO this year).

OO is a very different company from last year - i did buy at 5p but sold between 10p and 15p (as i felt it had got a little ahead of itself) , bought back at 13p after the placing and sold some in the high 20s. I've since bought loads in mid 20s as i can see more value and OO is now a different company from where it was this time last year.
Clinical facility was limited to 24 beds, but now this has been increased and potential to go higher the revenue limitation has been removed.
Non core assets valued at zero on balance sheet are closer to being monetised and for me the biggie is DIM. It was the data that previously got me into OO but after Hvivo purchase attention was focused elsewhere.
CF recently mentioned this may be delayed slightly so he can add the covid data from the CS. He's a smart cookie, including covid data will clearly mean we can charge more.
Sit on your hands is my advice

with the 30p placing there will always be some churn over the next few weeks as people take a quick 20% plus profit so i expect the share price to stabilise around 35p.
All LTH will (unfortunately) have to sit on our hands during this period.
I will take up my extra shares (2:17 ratio) and if it falls below 35p will top up further.

Hopefully, from April onwards we should start getting some positive news - sales team employed, first sales hopefully in June etc. I suspect Tim Watts will leave by mutual consent too.

The US revenue numbers are compelling if they get this right. By prediction is c70p later this year and back to £1 in 2022.
Great return for newbies, less so for LTH though.

i disagree - when the 23p interim divi was paid in March 2019 the company stated their policy was to pay a divi of 2 x cover i.e. 50% of profit. So a profit of £25m in the interims would enable this to be re-introduced.
Also now we have an asset 'lite' structure focusing on govt contracts there is less need for the Linden cash pile. Part of this could be re-distributed as a special divi.
Incidentally i didn't say it would be a 10p divi - i said we could easily afford it.

Let's see what Thursday brings

What is your point? The last divi paid in Nov 2019 was 35p and the previous interim was 23p. The year before divi was 48p. GFRD made a loss in both 2019 and 2020 (YE to 30/6) so they were prepared to pay decent divis even when profits were not being made.
Clearly this can't go on forever whilst company is loss making.
However, as Thursday will show GFRD is now profitable and sitting on a pile of cash.
10p equates to c£11m and company currently has £200m cash in bank

on V O X market interview today
https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/shield-therapeutics-vast-resources-and-alan-green-on-3-stocks-86fe417 (replace xxx with v o x markets - no spaces).

Alan Green mentions OTMP as a no brainer for RM!! Just saying

https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/shield-therapeutics-vast-resources-and-alan-green-on-3-stocks-86fe417 (xxx will be v o x markets . co . uk - no spaces)

Tim updates on placing.

It appears supply change, logistics, distribution, market access , price level all sorted for US.
Next step to recruit a salesforce (need placing money for this) and then selling will start by end of Q2.
So by June this year we should be generating money.

They already know exactly who to target - the 11,000 highest prescribing doctors for iron supplements has already been identified.

Whilst all the bad news is out of the way and going it alone in the US makes sense and should be highly profitable ($100m rev in year 2 - have already identified the top 11k doctors who prescribe iron supplements etc) it appears only the CEO and 1 NED are involved in the heavily discounted placing.

Why are the other 3 not participating (the 4 NEDs earned a combined £250k in 2019)?

Below is Rolf Hoffman - in 2019 he earned £45k from STX for effectively 1 day a month's work. He has extensive US pharma experience. Why is it only now STX are going it alone - could he not have advised this 18 months ago? He is also part of the remuneration committee that in 2019 awarded the ex CEO a £280k bonus on top of his £300k salary plus over 300k of essentially free shares (worth c£500k at that time) despite the company being loss making.

Rolf Hoffmann
Rolf brings to Shield over 30 years of international pharmaceutical experience, having served in several senior roles in the industry, most recently twelve years with Amgen as Senior Vice President of Commercial Operations for the United States, and before that as SVP International and Europe. He started his pharmaceutical career at Eli Lilly as a sales representative, progressing to senior positions including President of Latin America Operations and General Manager in Germany. Rolf holds an MBA from the University of North Carolina and a master’s degree from the University of Cologne and is Adjunct Professor at UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School.

Member of the Nomination Committee and the Remuneration Committee.

sorry - predictive text!! Love him or hate him!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4DqGqsGvlE

Look him or hate him, JW knows his stuff.

Couple of points to add - i believe current rev per agent is c£133 for OTMP (over £1k for RM) but this includes some free or discounted introductory offers. In a podcast i recently heard that just getting these onto fee paying accounts would almost double revenue to £40m (currently £23m without doing anything else).

i do feel there's been a small delay Q2 recently mentioned when previously Q1 but clearly progress is being made.

Would be nice for company to provide an update with clear timelines - a few weeks delay is neither here nor there, but months would be a slight concern.

Also, update re approach to lake 2 and 3 is also required. Initially the plan was to use revenue from sales to finance next phase but not sure that will be sufficient now.

We've already sold 90% of the potash from first lake so just reconfirming this and a date when revenue will start coming in will have a positive impact on share value IMHO

I'm not so sure if RM was to move now - OTMP is so small in comparison.

RM approaching Zoopla would definitely be a no no. In say 2 years with OTMP growing and RM flatlining at best i can see it definitely being challenged. Boomin just seems to be an idea at the moment - website is just an information page

More potential good news in the budget next week - reintroduction of 95% mortgages is a great idea
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56218952

interim results announced next Thursday - 4th March.

We've already been told we are profitable and dividend will be re-commenced.
Last interim dividend in 2019 was 23p. Can't see it being that large but 10p would be nice and equates to a 7% yield. They can definitely afford it, current cash position is c£200m.

Hopefully will trigger a re-rate

is it late again??? Considering how much we are owed and the current healthy oil price surely it is not too much to ask to be paid on time.

Was original agreement for payment on the 15th of each month? Don't think this has ever been achieved.

Dave, you are one of the LTH so i've a lot of respect.

What is so disappointing regarding the placing is they could have done it at well over £1 only a few months ago so the mis-management is unacceptable (after FDA approval they could have got over £1.50). Cashflow has always been quite tight and STX is still loss making so an extra 20m share raise last year would have strengthened the balance sheet and dilution would have been limited.

Now i'm over 50% down i'll take my placing shares and see what happens. If we go nearer 30p short term i may not up further.
I noticed Tim contract when he became CEO was for 1 year from April so fully expect him to go in the next couple of months.

We need the US operation to hit the ground running - not only to get some positivity back but with European rev still very low and China 2 years away from generating any revenue we need the cash burn to be managed.

In 2 years we should be profitable and have 3 decent revenue streams- so even with the enlarged number of shares a £200m plus valuation is not unrealistic, c£1 a share.

Finally, whilst Tim as CEO rightly gets much of the criticism the 4 NEDs need to stand up and be counted. What do they do? Previously CEO was on silly money and share options have been handed out like confetti.

I doubt any of them will even take part in the placing but their combined salaries are over £250k.

I think i could have got a placing away at such a large discount, really can't see what value they serve.

wow 30p only that's a massive discount , and clearly i'm not happy. Can't see why they couldn't have achieved 40p based on current market price and market cap. Based on a positive update in Nov i topped up at 108p in anticipation of a US deal being finalised so the decline over the last few months has been painful, especially as this is my largest holding.

However, after the last presentation in Dec the logic for going it alone is sound.
Essentially, in US market you can identify the doctors prescribing iron supplements so you can focus your efforts on these individuals. Why pay another company to do this for us?

Based on only a 2% market share that equates to c$130m profit p.a - the royalty model would produce $30m.

When i queried the 2% level as i considered this quite conservative, Tim agreed but mentioned the numbers were almost unbelievable at a higher percentages - i've done them at 5% it's c $400m (profit, not revenue).

Tim also mentioned STX could start generating revenues in Q2 2020 - only a month or so away. All they really need is remote sales team.

So clearly short term pain, but hopefully medium term this will be a profitable company with 9 figure revenues.

Keep the faith!!

RM results out today - makes interesting reading.

Profits down c40% as they reduced fees over covid (from £1,000 down to c£700) but as of Dec 2020 they were back up over £1,000 - OTMP are c£100 by comparison. No wonder agents hate RM

Number of agents - RM has c19k and this has reduced in 2020 by a few hundred. By comparison OTMP has c14k.

If/when OTMP can get to a similar level of agents, and we are closing that gap every week , why pay so much for a comparable service?

Surely RM must be considering buying OTMP as it's clear where this is going.

guessing it was a cheeky low ball bid and they weren't prepared to go much higher.

2nd tranche of placing can now go ahead so new BOD will hopefully have the time and money to turn this around.

Price has recovered quite well today, thought we might see a sub 40p close