Member Info for shandypants2

Dave - i've asked STX re India. Yes they are interested but prices charged would be much lower so less profitable.

Norgine already cover Aust and NZ. Decent markets (25m and 5m populations) but regulatory approval delayed by covid - should come on board in 2021 as should European expansion.

Undoubtedly US is the big potential revenue driver though .

Don't forget 2% market share in US is worth c$130m profit (not rev) to STX. 5% is over $400m.
In US you can directly target the doctors prescribing iron supplements as this data is readily available - this is why STX are considering going it alone.

Despite the current share price weakness i think the risk v reward is compelling

HighFive - good points.

Based on today's rns (not on LSE yet) it looks like a placing is 99% guaranteed and it looks like to raise more than £2m so Wardy can get his loan back. I will sit on my hands until this becomes clearer.

Agree i have more confidence in new BOD but this is a 'keep the lights on loan' and with lockdown not looking good the short term prospects are unclear.
I note that Joe B was dismissed and did not leave by mutual consent etc. Based on my experience unless he did anything illegal he will get paid as per his contract t&c.
In terms of tanning whilst clearly lockdown will not have helped i'm not sure if it can all be blamed on covid. July and August 2020 were almost a free for all in the UK - beaches packed and pubs & restaurants full etc. Without foreign holidays self tanning should have done quite well.
From Oct onwards every year Boots seems to changed their display layout to focus on xmas gifts so tanning products seem to get removed, therefore, sales in last 3 months of year will be very low.
Therefore such a big decline in rev for H1 indicates that UK DTC underperformed in the last 3 months as we were 3% up at the end of Sept as per the trading update.

but when this goes it will rise quickly

sorry the ***** is directors talk interviews .com - all one word

https://www.***************************/shield-therapeutics-us-market-offers-a-significant-opportunity/412953136

Summary - significant upside

HL has a 15 minute delay for displayed prices

yes, just re-read the trading update and surprised this isn't higher.

Some have questioned the high P/E but of course that was based on 2019 results. H1 was a 60% increase and H2 performance has been revised up a few times so likely to be 70% plus increase for YE.

Just look at the cash - £11m at end of 2019, £16m mid year and now £21m at end of 2020 despite paying out for dividend etc.

Sometimes updates take a couple of days to be properly digested. Hopefully 80p by end of the week and maybe £1 by results day.

SOS update not quite so well received, however, modest rev increase has been achieved with significant reduction in marketing spend, so results are better than they first seem.

Still hopeful for a very positive Friday update

With Joe at the helm you must question how IDP didn't make a profit out of DTC considering this is meant to be IDP's area of expertise. When i questioned IDP's DTC strategy after YE results and suggested they needed a specific strategy for the near 1m customer database as it's clearly cheaper selling to an existing customer where you already have their details and they already like the products. Joe's reply was that the plan was to continue growing DTC revenues by growing the customer list - so essentially repeat what didn't make a profit in 2020 into 2021.

Furthermore, at the YE update we were told IDP would make a lower profit than in 2019 yet 3 months later it reported a reasonable loss - this suggests financial controls were not up to scratch.

As an aside the Hut Group (THG) has just announced good results and their beauty division was up over 60%. So despite covid it is too simplistic to blame underperformance on the virus. In fact due to IDPs DTC offering i thought we'd be in a better position to manage the virus than our competitors.

yes i did Barwick, and it was very reassuring to see CGO on that list. However, before this was published the share had already risen by c100% in a month so i'm not sure that it is under the radar, as you have suggested.
Having said that any purchase in single figures is a decent one IMHO as there is much upside to come.

nice to see this finally tick up. TST's trading statement for YE was in Feb last year, hopefully we can bring it forward a few weeks.
A maiden profit, decent cash position and and good forward looking statement and this should significantly re-rate.
I think all 3 are likely

thank you for your concern SH.
I'm well aware of the potential placing and the short term impact on the share price - i have raised these concerns directly with the CEO.
For balance c£30m may be required over 2 years and company stated they expected this to be half funded via debt, so potentially a c£15m placing.
Also, they are currently in negotiations with 2 US companies, so there is no guarantee that some or all of the placing is required.
Hopefully, the Jan trading update will be a bit more positive.
Last March we were down to 40p, and 2 months later it was back to 120p without any significant newsflow.

Zahir - clearly bought on the dip and is desperate to see it rise (no issue with that BTW).

Didn't you say 80p next week just before xmas?

IMHO - this is now massively undervalued but the January update is crucial.

Maybe a cheeky offer - 120p would be a bargain as £3 plus would have been required this time last year.

exactly Con - this is a buy and hold. FDA approval is almost a given

it did rise from under 5p in Dec to over 9p so there must be been some pumping. Think Doc Hol quite likes this one.

good results - it looks like the focus on revenue via supermarkets is benefitting DIS. Nice to see Blackwoods doing better - a great product but brand positioning was unclear, i always thought it was a premium gin and should be marketed as such.

Hopefully new Vodka does well - not sure how it can have already won awards though!!

that's 100% - 50p to £1

I'm sorry Muz but IMHO you are being far too generous.

On 30/9 we were told trading in H1 was 3% up to previous year so to end down by c20% takes some doing, especially as revenues rose in both US and Oz albeit from reasonably low bases.

In last H2 IDP did a reasonable job of switching retail sells to DTC, although as we now know at a loss, so for DTC to fall so sharply in the UK in the back end of the year (not peak tanning) is a concern to me.

In terms of cash not only does IDP have c£3m in inventory as per 30/6 but retail outlets will also still have inventory from last year. Therefore, the need for big manufacturing runs to meet orders will be less - retailers will need less and IDP has unused inventory. The fact that it appears cash is low, hence the need of the NED loan would indicate cash hasn't been well managed.

Joe B is not a loss - but we will be paying his salary for another 6 months - that's my point.

Covid doesn't look like it's going anywhere soon so this black swan event will impact H2. Hopefully in 18 months to 2 years IDP will be in a much better place. I am less confident in the short term

possibly the ex CEO selling his remaining shares. Doesn't bode well short term

re-reading the RNS and unfortunately i can see no positives.

ST is clearly struggling. Yes covid has clearly had a big impact on retail but i thought DTC would be able to soak up some of this shortfall - clearly it hasn't despite having a customer list of almost 1m customers. If ST is down from £4.4m to £3.4m that's globally, so with US and OZ up (across all products) it appears the UK was the big area of decline. As UK is our biggest market this is a concern.
No other products are producing any worthwhile revenues - Roots is down again (and may have been withdrawn from Superdrug), nuthing hasn't got going yet, C+L and Prolong are still minimal.
All product relaunches seem to have been delayed again - Roots, Growlase and Prolong in Far Eat.

Cash is now a concern. At H1 last year company had burnt through £1.6m in the 6 month period (£m down to £0.4m) and we only had £1.2m at 30/6/20 , so the cupboard will be bare based on NED having to give company a £500k loan. Surely a placing is required ASAP.

Joe B going immediately will also have a monetary impact as i suspect he was on 6 months notice so will get paid in full as will previous CEO who was pushed out by Joe only 3 or 4 months ago. Haris also received more remuneration in 2020 than he did in 2019 despite only working 4 months of year - all this BOD infighting doesn't help the bottom line.

In terms of intangibles we had £3.05 m for the customer list and for Life Science Prolong/Ergon is valued at £1.55m and Leimo/Growlase is £1.78m so over £3.4m in total.
If we were to sell off Life Sciences i would be surprised if we got even half of the value assigned to our balance sheet.
Potentially intangibles could be written down by c£5m this year.

I'm struggling to see any positives - sorry!!