Member Info for shandypants2

the new contract is a positive but let's be honest current trading will not be good. Although 20 US sites are open (better than i thought) these will be operating at reduced capacity and visitor numbers must also be quite low.

UK is completely shut so zero here.

The cinema concept was/is a highly profitable concept - instead of 4 or so head sets per site you can have 20 to 30.
Unfortunately covid couldn't have come at a worse time for IMMO.

Hopefully, things will be better by the summer but no one knows if that will definitely be the case

yes, so based on that we are making $25 profit per barrel now and are producing c1m barrels a month.

So $25m profit per month or c$300 p.year.

Current market cap is £326m.

Even with all the well documented issues this is so undervalued

yes PCR testing was confirmed which is important.

Also, although lateral flow testing volumes are increasing all positives are then PCR tested for confirmation purposes.

PCR is still the only accurate test available and isn't going anywhere anytime soon

i'm not sure it is shady but i always think it's unprofessional when a BOD member 'forgets' to include a spouse's shares when they disclose.
This is a legal requirement - why are these people fined for their oversight?
It doesn't reflect well on the individual.
Having said that GB has done so much good for DVRG i'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt and move on

https://twitter.com/SharePickers/status/1358463371339849734

JW still very keen - comparison with RM is compelling. Hopefully YE update this week

a bit disappointed it wasn't released today based on last month, however, it will definitely be good so i'm reasonably relaxed.

User numbers will have increased considerably and the interest in BTC isn't going anywhere so the future is looking bright.

I can see things picking up this PM as FOMO kicks in

back of fag packet calculations but the NPV for Europe and China is $130m and $126m respectively (China looks quite conservative BTW). Converting to £ and dividing by 2 as this is NPV gives 81p a share.

So according to Edison we should be valued at 81p without a US deal.

https://openorphan-v2.pid1-e1.investis.com/sites/openorphan-v2/files/2021-02/Open-Orphan-Investor-Presentation-February-2021-V3.pdf

Apologies if already posted

re cash in the bank - it is doing something it is strengthening our balance sheet. We are dealing with large pharmas and signing medium term contracts. They need assurances that the company will be around to fulfil these services.
Our strong balance sheet will play a role in getting new and renewing existing contracts.
CF should just focus on progressing the company and its assets - the share price will take care of itself (eventually!!)

he says the SO4 chart's looking very promising.

Once production starts in a month or so hopefully this will get motoring

YE was 31/1 so i expect a trading update soon - was 6th Feb last year.

I'm expecting a good performance for Dec and Jan (based on market being active and comments by RM).

An extension to the stamp duty holiday would be the cherry on the cake

based on 103 barrels per day every $1 increase in the oil price equates to almost $40k extra profit per year.

It's recently risen by over $5 so that's c$200k profit . Hopefully market cap must reflect this soon

Diad - i understand you frustration, but cash position, or lack of it, has been well documented by STX for the last year or so, so it is nothing new. The loans, whilst not ideal, extend the cash until end of 2021 so that buys us a bit of time.
2 points to make - if they go it alone in US they will employ the people with the skillset and essentially they already know what doctors to target as details regarding iron prescriptions is readily available, at a price (see Dec and Jan presentations). They've already stated this will be part funded by a placing, hence the current depressed share price.
Having spoken to CEO recently he told me if they went down this route he would expect to see revenues start in Q2 2021.

You also state that other brands are filling our space. This is not true and the beauty of feraccru. They are two options for iron deficiency - an expensive IV that must be administered in hospital or a cheap salt based iron tablet which has low levels of absorption.
Feraccru can fill this middle ground, and it is a big space.

with an opening low ball bid of 44p let's be honest CRL won't be increasing it by more than say 30 to 40% max.

Also we have 47% extra shares at 35p soon so these new shareholders may see the appeal to a quick 50% plus.
Clearly this doesn't suit any LTHs as we probably all have an average at over £1 - the last placing was at 276p!!

However, i expect our biggest shareholder and NED Mark Ward will not consider a offer below his average (guessing about 70p). My only concern is that at some point it may need to get put to shareholders and then the BOD are powerless

i agree CS 2021 estimated rev figures are on the low side, and particularly now that we have an additionally 18 odd beds, a 75% capacity increase.
However, on thing to factor in is the changeover period - if a CS last for say 4 weeks i suspect a week is required to deep clean the rooms etc and get new patients in. So c 1 week in 5 is non revenue earning - over 2 months of the year.
Having said that the £25m you quote is a more realistic 2021 number (not the £16m FinnCap quote) and i would put that at nearer £40m now the new facility is available.

notice CRL share is down slightly at 65p.
Offer was 2 CRL shares for 3 IDP. Even a 1 for 1 offer, at c65p would probably not been accepted by the BOD.
However, other than Wardy BOD has very few shares. Maybe some of the 35p placing shareholders would be keener to explore this option

Edison research note just updated.

Shield Therapeutics (STX): Beefing up for the US opportunity

Shield Therapeutics' (STX's) shares fell sharply in December 2020 on the announcement that a US partnering deal would not be completed in 2020 and that the company is considering launching Accrufer itself in the US. We believe the market reaction has been overdone and the current share price fully discounts any value from the US and China opportunities. Until STX provides further clarity, we have continued to evaluate it based on a US partnering deal. Our modelling suggests an STX-led US launch could more than double longer-term shareholder value, but this is accompanied by increased near-term financial and investment risk, as STX will need to raise funds to establish a small but focused US marketing organisation. We value STX at £298.5m.

Our revised valuation is £298.5m or 254p/share, vs £379.1m or 324p/share previously. This reflects a US partnering deal but with more cautious assumptions; we delay launch to 2022 and reduce the upfront payment to £10m. We have also lowered EU sales trajectory in 2021/22 reflecting the need for further launches. We include unaudited net cash at 31 December 2020 of £2.9m, which gives a cash runway to Q221 and could be extended until end 2021 through two loan facilities agreements totalling c £4.4m. Our NPV calculation is based on Feraccru/Accrufer achieving peak sales of €130m in Europe, $410m in the US and $126m in China, through partners.

https://www.boots.com/sitesearch?searchTerm=roots%20double%20effect

the new bottles and new pricing are now available at Boots - shampoos were £9.99, now £6.99, which makes it a lot more competitively priced.

Also new ST Elixir seems to be going down well based on the reviews.

https://www.boots.com/skinny-tan-notox-beauty-elixir-30ml-10290085

well off the top of my head i think Toral has 14m oz of silver so even assuming only 25% is mined that's 3.5m oz.
So for every $1 increase in silver that increases the value of EUZ by $3.5m and the current market cap is c£5m.

Also the latest Jorc used a 3 year average price - silver was c$16 per oz i think - and it is now nearer $30.

This focus on silver can only be a good thing IMHO.

it's easy to beat market expectations when those expectations are issued by the company and are ultra conservative in the first place!! Underwhelming , but as they say Rome wasn't build in a day