Member Info for shandypants2

thanks for posting Munch, very positive

In 2020 the 4 NEDS earned a combined £232k for essentially part time roles.

Peter Llewellyn-Davies is in charge of the audit committee which covers risk mgmt. At some point in 2020 when things were quite healthy and the share price was well above £1 could he not have identified a massive cash shortfall if an US deal was not completed - especially as one company had already pulled out after advanced talks in March/April last year.
A smallish placing at that point would have strengthened the balance sheet and potentially improved STX's bargaining position.
Peter Llewellyn-Davies earned £48k in 2020 (£46k in 2019) from STX.
As per the accounts he held 10k shares.
In the recent placing he took up the 2 for 17 share option and acquired an additional 1,176 shares.
The cost was £352.80.

Rolf Hoffman is has Commercial Operations US experience and is chair of the Remuneration Committee. He earned £45k last year. Could he not have explained how the sales process worked in the US 18 months ago, so the decision to go it alone could have been done from a position of strength.
He has no shares and declined to participate in the recent heavily discounted placing.

I strongly suspect CEO will leave next month as his fixed term contract is up for renewal. These 2 can follow him as it is clear they add no value

I reckon he'll be gone soon - initial contract was for 1 year, from April last year.

FFS - late RNS yesterday and STX sneak through another 2.5m options linked to long term incentive plans etc.

NED Hoffman (who didn't even participate in the placing) and the (invisible) Chairman form the remuneration committee. STX has continually paid high wages and also handed out share options like smarties. They have learnt nothing from the last 3 months.
I have no issue rewarding success - either with a bonus or shares, not both, and clearly the last year has been a disaster.
CEO Tim joined as CFO in 2018. Less than 2 years later when he became CEO he declared his shareholding as 477k shares. I suspect almost all of these were via options at 1.5p. Why so many ? Share price was well over £1 at the time so in addition to his 6 figure salary he was 'rewarded' with over £500k worth of shares. Same with his predecessor.
The NEDs need to step up and do their job and buy some shares!!!

Have to say i'm a little concerned by the recent drop - on no news.

Agree re aerospace deals - EV and medical are the easier targets imho.
Production capacity is not being massively increased for no reason - they have visibility of interest and potential orders that are clearly NDAed.
Patience is key here.

yes at c50p a share at this rate!!

Yes but these comments from the CEO are concerning (see below).
FDA EUA still hasn't been granted (and that's emergency use - so fast tracked) and they've almost given up on India.
Cash will become a concern in a couple of months too, so a big order is required and this will only happen in US once FDA EUA is granted.

"We continue to experience delays in gaining the key regulatory approvals from the FDA, WHO and in India. In May 2020, approvals were occurring rapidly, but the urgency of regulatory bodies in granting new approvals has subsided. There are no confirmed timelines for these processes and despite lodging our file claims over Summer 2020 we are unable to affect the speed with which our submissions might get reviewed. In India our application has been repeatedly frustrated by test requirements that are neither documented nor communicated to applicants. Although our application remains on-going but we are reducing our attention on the market as there appears no certainty of a positive outcome against unknown requirements. We are currently importing into the USA while our FDA EUA has been applied for, which is permitted under FDA regulations. Lack of EUA reduces the potential customer base but we have proceeded on this basis with the full support of Beckman."

yes the accounts show a loan of $739k but in the cashflow there are a number of financial activity movements that also include changes to the overdraft amount and some longer term loans. In total this accounts for $883k.

Slightly concerning is note 12 re the loan - see below. It appears STAR is in breach of the agreed covenants!!

SHORT-TERM BANK LOAN

During July 2020, Starcom Israel signed a loan agreement with an Israeli bank in order to receive loans and credits in an aggregate principal amount that will not exceed NIS 5 million (hereinafter - "the Loan").

The loan will bear annual interest in the amount of Prime + 3%, calculated and payable on a monthly basis, to be repaid after a year.

In the framework of the financial agreement that was signed, the Company is obligated to maintain financials covenants in regard to the Groups' EBITDA, Equity and growth targets.

As of December 31, 2020, the Company is in breach of the financial covenants.

yes disappointing. We knew the 2020 results already but cash not looking great and the progress so far in 2021 is minimal.
All hope appears to be for a H2 uplift

Just re-looked at the March presentation and have to say i think the figures quoted are quite conservative.

In the US it appears there are c9.3m iron prescriptions per year and STX has identified the 11k doctors who write 30% of these. For comparison a salt based alternative (which have low absorption levels when compared to feraccru) , Auryxia, has US sales of over $110m p.a.

By year 3 we've targeted 2% of this market at c$1k (4 batches of $250 each) to give c$100m rev and 90% gross margin.
Breakeven is targeted at 12 to 18 months, so by end of 2022.

Well in 2022 (months 7 to 18) if we only did half of both the market penetration at half the price - 1% of market and only $500 per customer that's still c$50m in rev, $45m gross profit.
With costs at c$25m to $30m that's a decent profit.

STX surely cannot muck this up!!!

nothing substantial has changed? Are you sure??

No deal done within 6 month time period so de-listing is a strong possibility.

Need to raise up to £6m to then change direction and become an investment company.

I'd say quite a lot has changed.

Cash shell with £1.2m and valued at £2m despite 50% drop today so potentially could keep falling. I fell soory for all the people who bought 3p plus based on a done deal.

Boomin hasn't even launched yet so won't be a challenger for a few years.

RM must be worried about On the Market. Number of properties and visitors rising every month.
Cost for advertising less than £150 v£1k for RM.
Also part owned by estate agents.

Estate agents hate RM, so doesn't bode well long term
https://www.helmsmen.co.uk/insights/what-does-say-no-to-rightmove-mean-for-future-of-property-market/

any comment King???

this is now completely out of date as an extra 98m shares have just been issued. There will be loads of TR1s in the next few days. Currently, they have updated Jupiter as per TR1 today but have ignored the others.

Inventages as a VC didn't have the funds to participate so their 56m shares is now 26% of all shares and not the 47% quoted on the website.

Give it a few days and check again

Tony on V ox markets again today - i won't post the link as it never works.

Upbeat as usual. He stated the annual profit (not EBITDA) from the first lake would be AUS$80m.
That's £45m so using a conservative PE of 10 that's a valuation of £450m - double the current price.

Obviously this excludes the other 8 lakes.

not an issue, the price range can be a little misleading when the spread is quite large.

I have an average at c.26p and my PF current valuation has been consistently below this due to bid/ask.
About .24p seems to have been the average.

Not overly happy as a raise was only done in Nov, but hopefully we can see this money being put to good use over the next few months

price at 1/12/20 was c110p with 118m shares in issue , so STX valued at £130m.

Now there are 216m shares in issue so it we can get back to the £130m value then that's c 60p a share.

There should be a few TR1s being issued in the next few days now the extra shares have been issued (Inventages had 47% of shares so assume this will now be nearer 25% etc) and this with a few flippers may create some share movement but if STX pull there finger out and start showing some positive movement then hopefully things will pick up.

Getting the Q2 launch sorted and before end of quarter would be a good start.

yes but by giving agents shares you immediately gain a level of loyalty - there is none with RM, in fact it is far to say that the majority of estate agents hate them. Having loyal customers is critical.
It won't happen over night but the more sellers on OTM the less the need to pay RM c 8 times as much.

In terms of the public awareness / perception i see this as a 3 pronged approach - advertising (as per the recent TV ads), agents promoting it (why not they are shareholders) and word of mouth.
Then there is the financials. OTMP made a maiden profit in 2020 despite covid. Revenues grew 23% to c £23m. If the discounted offers are converted to paid for adverts that almost doubles the revenue in 2021 without doing anything else.

This doesn't need to be as big as RM, just an decent alternative. Value is £70m v £5bn so RM is 70 times bigger. If OTMP can get to a 1/10th of RM i'll be happy

i think they said US costs would be c$20 to 30m p.a rising to nearer $40 to $50m p.a after 3 or 4 years.

Staff would be 30 rising to nearer 60. At $100k a year that's 'only' $3m in wages in year 1. Obviously systems, telecoms and logistics etc need to be added but even adding at extra 100% to wages still only takes us to $6m.
I suspect salaries will be heavily commission focused so these could be a lot higher, however, i'm guessing the extra could be marketing spend which can be 'flexed' as and when required. No doubt in year 1 this will be a larger % of costs.

Not only has STX already identified the top 11k of doctors/pharmacists who account for 30% of all iron tablets prescribed the last presentation mentioned 100 'super' prescribers who account for 3% ( i think this is of the 30% not the whole market, but might be wrong) .
So go for these 100 on day 1 seems the obvious thing to do.

Now the placing is done and the share price so low we need to see the company has a plan and a clear path to revenues.
To get some revenue in before end of Q2 (30/6) would be a real positive.

yes, Tony talking about imminent revenues and profits which is great.

I think sentiment has been damaged here as shares are meant to be forward looking. Maybe the revenues will have to actually occur before the share re-rates. With an EBITDA of over $60m this looks quite cheap imho

Jet - study results could stop this very quickly. Unlikely , but this is not without risk