Member Info for shandypants2

it's less than 20%. The mid price (always quite a bid spread) has been lower, no more than .24p or .25p so .22p is no more than 10 to 15% discount.
Not great but not terrible

agree Con, hence the recent price drop. It was valued at over £200m in 2019 after FDA approval for Feraccru, nothing has really changed since then other than delays in the US.
BTW, i'm not saying this is a £1bn pound company i'm saying it has the potential to get there in 3 to 4 years based on quite conservative market penetration.
Obviously DYOR etc

sorry typo with years - should be...

2021 (6 months only) - Revenue $10m - loss c$6m
2022 - revenue $40m profit $6m
2023 - revenue $80m - profit $37m
2024 - revenue $120m - profit $68m

Now the new shares are being issued hopefully the bottom is close.
Clearly the BOD has massively mis-managed this process and the share price has reacted accordingly (70% drop in last 3 months).

However, the risk v reward for investing now are significant .

Looking at the US market (which is an easier 'sell' then say UK where the NHS must always focus on price, whereas the US can focus on cost effectiveness) the high revenues based on only a small market share are compelling.
Estimates are over $100m in year 3 and $300m plus in year 5.

Using conservative revenue forecasts and costs as per directed ($30m in year 1 up to $50m in year 5) and 90% gross margin my forecasts are as follows:
2021 (6 months only) - Revenue $10m - loss c$6m
2021 - revenue $40m profit $6m
2022 - revenue $80m - profit $37m
2023 - revenue $120m - profit $68m

At $68m on a P/E of 20 that's a valuation of $1.36bn or just under £1bn. That's £5 per share.

Clearly this values Europe and China at zero too.

Next steps are for BOD to show us they have a clear plan over next few months to take this to market and then we need to see say quarterly revenue updates. Once revenues start coming in hopefully sentiment should return.
They have already identified the 11k pharmacists/doctors out of 460k who make up 30% of the iron prescribers , they just need people to contact them.

yep, but c9m shares can only be issued if approved at an EGM. This is meant to be in late March but to my knowledge the prospectus hasn't yet been published so they need to get a move on.
H1 results also still need to be finalised too, so a lot to do in the next few weeks.

It is possible the CRL bid delayed things a bit, but clearly IDP still needs to money so i can see a busy next few weeks

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/943783/salt-lake-potash--bolting-along--at-lake-way-with-plant-commissioning-imminent-943783.html
New Proactive interview with Tony. Seems very bullish and c95% complete now. Production to start in June.

When at full capacity this one lake will produce 245k tonnes a year. At c$500 a tonne that's $122m rev per year and there are 8 other lakes !!!

yep i posted the link on Wednesday. You need to register to gain access and then search for Shield, but this is really straightforward

i think you are trying to polish a turd here. It is clear that Ebers and Vistagen are focusing elsewhere now, hence the comment.

Similarly Kissei deal is dead and Chinese milestone payment which we are legally entitled to will never get paid (and was never included in revenue figures anyway, which is what i would have expected at the time when payment was due).

Hence the need for the placing (yet again). All 3 products need work and chance of significant near term revenue/milestones etc is low.

As most LTH holders sitting on big losses but jam tomorrow potential remains.

Stick in back pocket for another 6 months and let's see where we are

not on STX website yet but can be viewed here
www.investormeetcompany.com (you will need to register and then select STX as the company)

US figures are compelling - even 50% of the figures quoted will see STX many times the current market cap

Australia approval for Feraccru is another step in the right direction and hopefully NZ should follow soon after.
Oz has a population of c25m so it is a decent market.
Norgine's progress has been frustratingly slow although this hasn't been helped by the H2H debacle.

Norgine are already in Aust and NZ so hopefully they can start marketing the product ASAP.

Additionally, in Europe Feraccru is only sold in the UK and Germany and the plan was always to expand to Italy, Spain and France. I'm guessing covid has delayed things but in the next 6 months this should be resolved.

So with those 5 countries i estimate that the total population is c200m of which maybe 1% have anemia of some form.
That's a big increase.

yes, good it's finally come in although clearly late (again).

Next repayment amount should be much higher to reflect the higher brent oil price, we'll have a better grasp on total length of repayment then - if it's nearer $6m, as has been estimated, then total repayment is nearer 1 year in total.
It is clear that the repayment terms have just been determined and GKP has had no input or influence in these discussions though.
Clearly no interest is being paid too.

With results on 31/3 i suspect BOD will be keen to get this month's payment banked though to avoid difficult questions re payment reliability

that contract was announced in Sept 2020. Nothing has been announced since

Recent share price fall is a little worrying, but hopefully stuff happening in the background.

and another 25 new estate agents signed up in the last week - great progress.

If this progress continues they could sign up c100 per month so over 1k a year.

wow, invisible Chairman is keen - has bought 500k of shares in the last month or so.

Have to agree STX can't do positivity can they - why not announce this at 7am the next day. Beggars belief.

Toon, i agree the market cap is on the low side but the net assets are £125m as per interims yesterday so that's c113p per share and this includes quite a bit of goodwill / intangibles.
I think they've stated YE profit will be c£10m which is pretty low for a company with over £1bn of rev.
Gross profit margin is due to rise to over 2% next year but still quite a low profit.
A very stable, if unspectacular share IMHO.

Having said that with revenues so secure if divi can be a little more ambitious (e.g. equivalent to a 4 or 5% dividend yield) a £200m valuation, c180p a share seems reasonable.

nice to see the invisible man buying (chairman who doesn't seem to do anything - doesn't respond to shareholder emails, doesn't assist Tim with presentations despite it clear that Tim is a poor presenter and has zero charisma) but surprised it hasn't done this via the placing.
From the placing details only CEO and 1 NED were participating.
Shows some confidence at these levels though so a good indicator and a hefty amount of shares too

in the last 2 years it's been released in the last week of Feb so it has clearly been delayed a little this year.

Not expecting anything positive but will be interesting to see how low the cash position was at 31/12 etc.
Maybe they'll wait until 2nd tranche of placing shares has been completed, but think it needs to be published this month so they can't wait too long

i think whilst great they are back in profit these results are a bit underwhelming, as evidenced by the share price reaction.

As previously guided i was expecting a higher profit - nearer £10m based on 2% margin.
It would appear there is also a small YE profit downgrade as revenue guidance and margin has both been slightly reduced - i'm now assuming revenue of £1.2bn and 1.5% profit margin so £18m (although not sure if some central costs will need to be taken off this figure).
So all in all a profitable, steady , unspectacular business.

Regarding dividend i did get this one wrong but it is only the interim dividend, YE one will be higher.
At 1.2p that's only £1.33m so about a 1/3 of the £4m profit.
YE one could be 5p plus if all goes to plan, based on 2 x cover.

Still think cash pile seems a little excessive - a special dividend of say 20p (£22m) would not be unreasonable at some point in the near future.

https://twitter.com/jasontebb/status/1366657725283844105

30 new estate agencies signed up in the last month or so. Progress continues - other than the share price!!!

so stamp duty holiday extended until end of June and then a higher £250k limit for another 3 months.

95% mortgage govt guarantee to assist the housing market .

All positive for housing and OTMP