Member Info for shandypants2

can't believe pal rider has just described rev as poor.

Rev in Q1 was c£6m, Q2 c£58m and H2 was £214m. As of June we did £22m in that month so it is clear that revenues have been increasing every month.
The average monthly rev for H2 was c£36m so it is likely this would have been say £25m in July increasing to maybe £40-50m by December.
£80m a month was never realistic, especially based on H1 results and broker guidance. Some people are just never happy

Jungla, you seem a half empty kind of guy.

I wasn't aware the 10m capacity had ever been confirmed but there are a few caveats there. Firstly, this may have been a forward looking statement, i.e we will have 10m once all the current work is completed. Secondly, it is likely that to achieve 10m the factory would need to work 24/7. Most factories operate 2 x 8 hour shifts so 16 hours a day, but at peak periods this can temporarily be increased.
Operating 2 shifts for the majority of H2 would clearly be lower than 10m. This logic is supported by the gross margin being maintained at such a high level - the factories are operating efficiently.

I suspect there are still DNAs with UK Govt so not everything can be disclosed but clearly DHSC is our biggest customer and will continue to be so. My personal view here is that the expansion of hospital testing may have been temporarily delayed a bit as some hospitals are at full capacity and are unable to allocate staff to be trained on operating the q16/q32 . For those hospitals where it has been introduced it is adding value and Promate will improve that further.

Anyway , the numbers are great. H2 produced £213m rev and £143m EBITDA.
If this is merely repeated for H1 and H2 2021 that's £286m EBITDA for 2021 YE, over 50% increase on the 2020 numbers just announced. Even on a very low PE of 3 we are undervalued

Also, we have had a strong start to 2021 so i would be very surprised if H1 2021 does not exceed H2 2020.

agree Regulator - the Good Law Project are not the issue. We all know the govt handed out contracts to mates so these should be investigated.
The Abingdon one wasn't like that but if it didn't follow protocol it should be highlighted.

Perhaps the biggest issue is that Abingdon didn't feel the govt not buying any of the extra 49m tests that the contract related to was deemed price sensitive as needed to be RNSed

i've read the article and it seems factually correct. I'm not happy, but i can't criticize the good law project.

Abingdon's logic for not informing the market is where i would focus my anger - their logic is massively flawed

definitely check out the 1/2 year interim report too, published in Oct 2020. It's a nicer read!!!

Not only does it show a first profit - rev up and expenses down - and cash has improved too.

TR1 announced as predicted by nuffin - hopefully bodes well for a good week

cheers for the link.

After listening to the STX presentation in Dec and after speaking to the CEO directly, whilst a licencing deal is still my preference (clean, money upfront etc) the do it yourself route is appealing.

The slide pack says it "Planning to target the top 30% of iron prescribers – about 15,000 physicians who in aggregate write at least 70% of all iron prescriptions".
This data is readily available, why not pay people to directly do these contacts. Profit based on only a 2% market share is $190m v $30m.
Also like the comment that the aggregate net sales in Europe + China are expected to rise to $150m- $200m by
2030, Shield’s current market valuation is supported entirely by the current Europe and China licence deals

hopefully this is the start of the move up as we near the first production.

New virtual tour on SO4 website too

Great find, many thanks. No doubt CF has been unable to confirm this until govt do so first

hi, from my limited involvement in flucamp

Screening is part of the process to check you are fit and healthy with no underlying health conditions. This is partly questionnaire, weight/height checks and i think a blood sample is taken.

You don't get paid for the screening , only the 2 week study period. I think for flu camp it was £3.5k for 2 weeks, but may be higher for CS.

Drop out rate - not sure, but as a lot of students sign up guess most of them are reasonably fit.

One of the issues is getting people in for a specific 2 week window - not all dates are convenient for people so you need a big short list of screen volunteers.

none of us our happy with the last placing but this project is an expensive one so further funding can never be ruled out.

We are months away from producing and most of it has already been sold. If the first lake can fund the 2nd and so on then this could be transformational as they have 9 lakes in total.

Good luck all LTHs

having signed up for flu camp i was asked to come to London for screening. If successful i could then participate at a later date. As i live near Manchester this was not practical.
Whilst not a game changer this RNS says a few things.
1. Any screening they can do outside of the 24 bed unit means there is more space for paid for volunteers.
2. They need more volunteers so to have a screening centre outside of London makes sense - it is clearly why those living outside of London may not be participating.
3. They know there is demand for their services over the next couple of years
4. retail space is dirt cheap ATM, why not take advantage of it

This rns will not move the share price , but as per the last few it does reinforce that things are moving in the background the the core business is operating well.

The transformation rns may take longer as when you negotiate with larger companies you can only go at their pace . I am sure they will come though

OTMP is partly owned by estate agents and was set up partly to offset Right Move's near online monopoly.

RM know that estate agents need to advertise on their site so charge high costs and are generally disliked within the industry.
OTMP is a cheaper alternative that essentially offers the same service.
OTMP are a lot cheaper - revenue from each ad is c£100 compared to c£1,000 from RM.

Look at the valuations - RM is valued at c£5bn whereas OTMP is c£75m. If OTMP can get say 10% market share of online sells, which is not unrealistic, then their valuation should be 3 or 4 times the current one IMHO

yep, hopefully phase 3 in China is a formality, but that's the way it is. STX don't pay for any of this BTW, ASK have to foot the entire bill.
Incidentally, Chinese market is not that mature but could potentially be larger than US.

On vox interivew on Friday (won't post the link as it never works for Vox markets) CEO was adamant that current share price is more than covered by Chinese and European deals, despite current low revenues

it would be great if OTMP could provide an update, but in their defence there were updates in Oct and Dec so i suspect they won't want to issue one until early Feb when final YE figures can be confirmed (OTMP YE is 31/1).

Possibly an update on website traffic could be provided - RM did similar recently and OTMP has just done a TV advertising campaign, so surely the news is positive.

In Oct they said YE profit would be breakeven (guessing due to increased marketing), but in Dec they said it would be +£1.5m.
If Jan has been a good month hopefully it might be nearer £2m which would be fantastic.
Only a few weeks to wait

decent RNS. Making progress and no further issues with funding. Perhaps a minor delay but nothing significant.
Hopefully we can start moving up from here as this lake will generate over £60m EBIDTA as per previous guidance

i think this featured in SCSW this month. Don't subscribe but the guy is good. He also has access to BODs etc and does company visits etc.
He is very good at spotting turn around companies.

UPGS is a good example of this - i think he recommended that last year as a similar price to BWNG and it's now 140p

this should be RNSed soon.

If it confirms we are either in production or weeks away this will help sentiment as this has always been Q1 2021.

Don't forget the following...

SO4 has secured 220,000t per annum of offtake to industry leading partners representing 90% of total planned production for five and ten year terms from commencement of shipping in Q1 2021, with take or pay arrangements on product resale

but you have to remember they are trying to get away from the low credit score type customer.

Yes it will never be a top end retailer but they are trying to bring the brands slightly upmarket.
Less but more profitable customers seems a sensible way forward.
I think they mentioned customers in arrears down form 7.9% to 7% so more than 10% improvement. This will take time but they are moving in the right direction.
These results are ok IMHO, steady but unspectacular

agree Brightly - core businesses performing quite well and profitably.

2 years ago revenues were much higher but company made a loss despite. Last year revs were lower but a reasonable profit was made. This year i can see the trend continuing.
Less debt, focused brands etc seems to be the way forward.