Member Info for shandypants2

Agreed - not greed!!!

greed. Last 2 rns's have essentially confirmed that existing core business is operating well and in additional to new contracts existing contracts are being renewed and that we have yet another asset valued at zero that is worth a substantial amount and this is likely to be monetised in the not too distant future.

So 2021 should see a number of additional challenge studies, the data side developed (which could be worth more than the current market cap) and 2 or 3 non core assets sold off.

agree under valued Christo but the E in PE is Earnings i.e. profit , not revenue.

I do agree most pharmas are conservatively valued at 2 x revenue though.

Expecting 50p in 2021

good summary Casa.

A few things to add ;
They got very close with 2 US companies but both pulled out late on due to issues with their leading product (the most recent one failed its phase 3).
Recently 2 companies have re-approached STX which is reasonably positive although negotiations are at an early stage. Both companies were approached earlier in the process but couldn't proceed due to other interests at that time.

The $200m by 2025 for US sales is based on a 2% market share in year 5 (not over 5 years, in year 5 only). This seems very conservative to me. I would expect at least this by year 3 and maybe 5% by year 5.

$30 to $40m required is also to cover additional costs as STX is currently loss making. CEO stated probably a 50% placing may be required.

While potential placing will keep share price down surely it is seriously undervalued at current levels.

i suspect it's just because the ex CEO has stopped selling

"some people find it hard to grasp, however the LTH,s will get their just rewards"

Opul , surely you know EVERY LTH is so underwater this will need to rise about 5 fold for many to get their money back, assuming they have averaged down a bit.

Whilst i do agree 2021 will be a better year until we can sell oil at market rates and get paid on time i think any rise will be limited.
Currently we are locked in to 1 purchaser at a significant discount to the market price whose payment history is patchy at best.

https://www.boots.com/skinny-tan-wondertanned-gift-set-10289324

this has sold out online at Boots

once Bayer retires the whole BOD will be UK based which has to be a positive IMHO.

New CEO appears to have the right experience, hopefully, he will be able to update on short/medium term priorities in January as part of the H1 update. in Nov they said H1 was 3% up on 2019. If this has been maintained with hopefully lower marketing spend i'll be reasonably happy.

PUT - i'm not sure they should do any more significant field development until the $73m owed has been repaid.

I suspect the initial offer is minimal, maybe an extra $2-3m a month - so it would take maybe 3 years to be paid back in full. Also suspect no interest is being offered.

Expanding the field to 55k bod is GKPs only negotiating 'carrot' so i wouldn't play it too soon.

Additionally a dividend rather than share buy back would be better received by shareholders and whilst i agree i would not buy the bond back now IMHO i would keep money aside to do so when it matures in 2023

Dave, i wasn't aware anyone disagreed with you. He is clearly a CFO and lacks charisma.

Tim was probably appointed for continuity and as a ' safe pair of hands'.
However, in his and STX's defence at the time of the appointment we had engaged the services of a consultancy firm to do the initial engagement and ex CEO was still involved. Therefore, much of the more detailed discussions would have been about contracts and finances - something that Tim would be ideally suited for.

The next few months are key now, starting with the presentation tomorrow. Tim is not a natural but he needs to ensure it is well received. The product is still good and market size is unchanged.

yes, good progress being made and fully funded into 2022. 2021 should be a transformational year IMHO

disappointed with the placing after being told funding was in place only a few months back. I can accept some FX movement but surely there should have been some contingency build in.
However, first lake is 80% completed and should be completed March/April next year. If this generate c£60m EBITDA as has been guided then this is still good value.

Whilst the failure to get an US partner is clearly frustrating re-reading last week's RNS i still think that is the preferred option and i expect maybe 2 or 3 separate smaller, more specific deals to be announced next year.

What is frustrating is that 2 of the things they mention could have been worked out months ago. Firstly, a plan B i.e. do it yourself , was always required else US partners, who are hard negotiators, will be aware that STX had no plan B and will use that to their advantage by offering less money upfront etc.

Secondly, the fact that telesales/online marketing is become more effective should have been pretty obvious pre covid - Norgine are hardly setting the world alight with progress in Europe.

STX is such a small company there is no way they can roll out anything themselves although it is possible they could do an outsourcing deal with a specific marketing company.

If they do go for a few smaller , separate deals funnily enough i think this was ex CEOs plan in late 2019

it was the 17th - a few more days to wait!

innit, i respect your opinion but feel you are being very naive.

Firstly, when was the last time someone in AIM got prosecuted for insider dealing? Only the other week the chairman of RMS sold millions of shares the day before an announcement that production was delayed.

Ex CEO still has 8m shares so clearly not an issue? Well bizarrely you can't just sell 9% of a company in one go, as you must know. He must have spoken to the broker to arrange the sale and maybe the 2m was an amount that could be absorbed in the market short term without a overly negative impact on the share price.

Then lets look at the ex CEO. After resigning/being pushed in April he stayed on in an advisory capacity and Tim mentioned he spoke to Carl 2 to 3 times per week. When this this advisory role finish, who knows? The likelihood is that he would be in attendance during meeting with 3rd parties/potential partners, else how could he perform his role?
Carl as part founder of STX had over 10m shares but in 2018 and 2019 took home a combined salary including bonus of c£1.2m - on a par with a FTSE250 CEO and probably double what it should be (his salary in 2019 was £550k despite STX revenue being only £700k once the £2m milestone was returned to Norgine). Additionally, despite having loads of shares he has regularly been awarded share options at silly prices (15p etc) to ensure he is aligned with shareholders!!!
Now i'm not saying he didn't deserve to be paid well but it is clear that the founder has been looking after No 1 at all times.
So if he had the opportunity to make a sell at c40% above the current price i think he would take it. The fact that during the sales period STX via proactive released an update re-iterating the previously mentioned end of year date is too much of a coincidence for me.

yes that was the day ex CEO sold c2m shares. At the time i thought it may just be as at the same time he took a new CEO position, however, clearly there were things going on behind the scenes.
The Proactive update on 26th to stabilse the price was clearly not coincidental.
Similarly, according to RNS sell on 25th was only notified to STX on 27th (a Friday) and so TR1 was released to the market on Mon 30th.
I'm kicking myself for not joining the dots.
I've topped up today but with limited conviction

Tim on Vox markets today (if xxx appears on the link below its v o ox m a r k e t s).

Not the most upbeat of presenters at his best but think he made the update as positive as he could. Does confirm they were very close twice to get this deal signed and then US companies had strategical issues, or similar, just prior to inking the deal.
He does say they are still talking to other US pharmas but assume these are smaller companies and are earlier stage discussions.

https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/shield-therapeutics-update-on-u-s-commercialisation-and-john-meyer-on-5-resource-stocks-c6d2234

really disappointing, especially after the positive RNS in September., when i suspect some issues must have been known. Tim as CEO was promoted from CFO as a safe pair of hands to secure an US deal. He has failed to do this so he has no credibility left.
The go it alone option seems to be purely as they don't have a deal - as they have minimal staff, no sales or US experience, this is a bold move.
I suspect a number of smaller deals for specific therapeutics will now be the focus as per the RNS.
Potentially this could be more profitable in the long term - i also suspect that is what the ex CEO was trying to achieve last year but some of the larger US Pharmas wanted full control.
Surely we must be ripe for a low ball takeover bid now - any IV pharma should see this as a natural complement to their services.

always nice to see the BOD buying but it is only £12,500 each.

I suspect many on here will have similar sized holdings

it was an old statement but companies use Proactive for PR purposes. So STX would have been involved in the 'research' article and would have potentially dictated the timing of its release too.
Just seems too coincidental to me - just when people are getting concerned re US deal a research note gets released re-iterating the end of year target date.
Also STX pay and bonuses seem quite generous - ex CEO received over £500k last year including a £180k bonus. The bonus is connected to the achievement of strategic objectives.
Well the US deal is the key strategic objective in 2020. If Tim wants his bonus he has 2 weeks to get this over the line