Member Info for shandypants2

yes, good summary Ezhik. Increased production targets are compelling and will drive SP, however, the potential for a new product is fantastic.
One of just hold for the next year or so and the SP will take care of itself.

Dave - as a fellow LTH it's impossible not to be concerned with the current CEO.

However, i think the US operation almost takes care of itself now that we have a core US managerial team in place.

Also based on the companies own revenue projections, which are quite conservative IMHO (i've spoken to Tim Watts re this and he agrees but he's naturally quite cautious being an accountant by trade), then even 50% of the 5 year revenue target will make this a £1bn company.

Shorter term we need to start selling though (so mid May update is crucial) and get to cash positive within the announced timescales (15 to 18 months). I also think this date range is quite conservative but probably best to be cautious on this one.

Incidentally re share i remember last March/April when STX announced they'd mucked up the H2H end point the share dropped to c50p (also covid sell off). At the time i thought this was massively overdone as it was mainly an admin error, the results were still positive. So i bought a few (more). A few weeks later we had a 40% one day increase (50p to 70p) and a week later another big day to get it back over 90p. There were no RNSs to trigger this. I suspect we might get a similar move in the next few months when people realise the US operation is in place.

another positive update from CEO yesterday on V o x markets (can't post the link it never works).

All progressing nicely and June revenues reiterated.

Sam your timing is fantastic - 33p must have been right at the bottom. Anything under 50p is a steal.

STX has had a strange few years - much of the ups and downs are based partly on sentiment.

There was a placing a few years ago (2017 i think) at 150p a share (before FDA approval) and afterwards STX tried to market and sell feraccru themselves in Europe. This didn't go well so they signed a commercial partnership with Norgine. Due to sentiment the price dropped to 40p. Things picked up and clinical study results were good so FDA approval was less risky. Before FDA price had risen back above £1 and after FDA it went up to c190p (late 2019).

2020 was meant to be the year of growth and Chinese deal was signed in early 2020. However, the much expected US deal never materialised despite STX saying it was almost nailed on.
This was confirmed in Dec 2020 when price dropped from c110p to c60p.

STX then said they might go it alone as sales process in US wasn't rocket science and profit to STX is massively higher.
However, a placing would be required. Clearly golden rule is never say you need a placing until you've done it so price dropped again.
In the end it was discounted at 30p so share price dropped accordingly.

However, hopefully all the bad news is out of the way now.

Market is still not convinced that STX can go it alone, however, they have taken 4 directors from a competitor so risk is much reduced.
Also, CEO is now damaged goods as you can't say you are confident of a US deal in mid Sept and then a few months later say oh sorry it didn't happen.

A positive update in a week or so should see sentiment start to improve. When it does this could rise quickly. Company's revenue forecasts seem quite conservative IMHO

i notice 2 large buys have just gone through (50k and 51k shares) so it looks like positions are being taken . On HL i can't buy a bean ATM.
We all know there is much upside here if US sales kick off (STX was worth £200m in 2019 based on a potential US deal) and taking the 4 US Directors off a competitor massively reduces the risk of failure.

In year 5 STX has stated US revenue estimated are $300m to $400m. At the lower end that still generates $225m net profit.
Based on a PE of 15 that's a valuation of c£2.5bn for STX (excluding Europe and China).

So let's assume only 50% of this profit. Well that's still a valuation of over £1bn and a £5 plus share price. So a 10 bagger if they do 50% of expectations.

The new Astra Zeneca CKD drug getting FDA approval will massively help too.

very quiet here, as is the share price.

Strategy seems to be a low risk construction company with no debts but low margins. If revenue slowly grows (and pipeline is large) and margins improve then profits and dividends should respond.

The SP won't do 20 to 30% moves in a day but a slow rise to 150p seems on the cards.

This extract is taken from STX's March 2021 presentation regarding the opportunity for Feraccru to complement Roxadustat for treating CKD. This was FDA approved yesterday

AstraZeneca, Roxadustat – HIF - PH Inhibitor: “A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats”
• Roxadustat expected to launch in US market in 2021 (subject to FDA approval)
• Roxadustat is a first-in-class, orally administered small molecule hypoxia-inducible factor-prolyl hydroxylase
(HIF-PH) inhibitor that promotes erythropoiesis by increasing endogenous production of erythropoietin.
• HIF PH inhibitors improve iron regulation, and down regulate hepcidin (thereby overcoming the negative
impact of inflammation on hemoglobin synthesis and red blood cell production).
• Key Point: Iron is NOT REPLACED or replenished with the use of HIF-PH Inhibitors (or earlier ESA products) but
rather it simply becomes more readily available or accessible.
• Iron replacement therapy still has an important role even with hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase
inhibitor treatment, but perhaps more so via oral products such as Accrufer™.

Astra Zeneca's new drug for treating CKD has been approved. This is good news for STX as whilst the drug is meant to be great it doesn't address the iron deficiency aspect of CKD. Therefore it will need to be supplemented with an iron supplement.

Who is selling the most effective iron supplement?

feel so sorry for LTH. Another strategic review and massively discounted placing.

Slade is a joke, this company will never be profitable with him in charge

OAP you are either related to the CEO or have not bothered watching any of his interviews and/or presentations.

Please also go back to RNS on 16th Sept and tell me if he is 'telling it like it is'.

Great RNSs - the future looks very positive.

I particularly like this comment from the CEO
"In September 2020 the Company signed a Product Manufacture and Supply Agreement with an EV OEM and expects future orders from customers in its targeted Medical, Aerospace, EV and also other industrial markets".

Edison in their research note estimate that each of the 3 targeted areas should conservatively generate revenues of £100m p.a so £300m in total

Another of my holdings POLX is going on a run. A great product, but not yet FDA approved (will be in Oct 2021) and is loss making. Also just did a big placing.
POLX value is £177m. STX with a bigger market and FDA approval is £104m as of today.

After FDA approval in anticipation of a US deal STX was worth c£200m - equivalent to 93p today
In 2023 US profits estimated at £37m. In 2024 it's c£80m.
Based on a conservative forward PE of 15.
2023 valuation =£555m or 257p per share (similar to FinnCap's forecast)
2024 valuation = £1.2bn - over £5 a share!!!

The only downside i can see is if breakeven is not achieved in the 15 to 18 month timescales.
The risk v reward is compelling

FFS can Watts make a positive statement!!!!
From the article...
Mr Watts said: "Within 15 to 18 months of the product launch we could be in a position where the sales revenues are covering the costs of the group on a monthly basis and from that point on we will be generating cash rather than burning it.

Surely he could have said something like "we have conservatively estimated a cash breakeven after 15 to 18 months so are confident that from that point onwards we will be generating cash, and lots of it, to drive the company forward etc"

Just replacing could with will would be a start!!

This could easily be a £1bn company in 5 years based on the revenue estimates from US alone - why not say that - my aim as CEO is to make STX a £1bn company and i strongly believe we have the appropriate road map to achieve this target.

Look at ORPH for how a CEO can enthuse shareholders.

97% complete now. However, very little interest it would seem. Maybe this will only wake up when revenues are actually generated. Not long to wait now

FinnCap reiterate its 250p price target. ALso mentions STX are in discussions with licencing partners in 3 countries and expect to conclude at least one of these deals in 2021.

?US launch targeted for June: Shield remains on track to launch Accrufer in the US
by the end of June 2021, and will provide a progress update in mid-May, having
already completed many of the major work streams necessary for product launch.
?Monetisation events: Shield has indicated that it is active discussions with potential
licence partners in three separate countries outside the US, Europe and China. It is
aiming to complete at least one in 2021 as it is at the licence documentation stage.
?Forecasts. All forecast items remain as indicated at the time of February’s
fundraising except EPS and net cash, which reflect the full take-up of the Open Offer
and higher gross proceeds received (£29.2m vs. £24m). An LPS of -10.8p in 2021,
rising to +17.3p in 2023, are now forecasts, which are 7-8% lower than previous
estimates. We now expect net cash at year-end 2021 to be c.£7.5m (previously,
£4.3m). Breakeven on a monthly basis is still anticipated in 15-18 months.
?Valuation unchanged at 250p. This is based on an rNPV of Feraccru/Accrufer
royalties and operating cashflows, which we estimate to be worth £554m over the
term of the patent to 2035, with the US accounting for 85-90% of this value. This
would imply the stock trading on FY 2023 EV/Sales and adjusted P/E of 6.1x and
14.4x, respectively.

Outlook – US launch in June 2021
Launch preparations nearing completion
After almost 9-12 months developing a launch plan for the US, Shield confirmed that it is
on track to launch Accrufer by the end of June, having:
?Recruited four US executives, headed by Brian Groch, with extensive experience of
launching, selling and marketing pharmaceutical products in the US. Moreover they
had done extensive due diligence on Accrufer while employed by a company which had
been contemplating licensing the product from Shield.
?Manufactured launch stocks for the US, which are expected to be shipped to the US by
end-April. These were part of the bulk manufacture of 4.5 tonnes of ferric maltol in
2020, which Shield has indicated should last to the end of 2021, including clinical trial
packs for ASK Pharm in China.
?Completed many of the major work streams necessary for product launch, which
include medical affairs, market access (e.g. pre-launch payor calls) and operations and
sales. Shield has indicated that it will provide a fuller update of progress towards launch
in mid-May.
?FDA has approved an extension to the shelf life of Accrufer packs from 21 months to
24 months and ongoing studies should demonstrate stability out to 36 months later this
year

slightly disappointed that the detailed US update could not be provided today, however, things appear to be moving quickly so they no doubt expect to be in a clearer position in a few weeks - as you say not long to wait.
The numbers are compelling - based on that it's a no brainer. However, many LTHs thought that last year and look what happened!
Tim, the CEO, is updating analysts about now so i expect his natural charisma will rub off on these guys and the share price will start rising ASAP!

revenues of $300m to 400m by year 5, June 2021 launch date confirmed and also cash positive within 15 months quoted (previously 15 to 18 months).
Things are progressing well. Onwards and upwards

yes and his comment the next day (23rd April) is
"We don’t require any further approvals to move into commercial production, premium SOP being sold to demanding farmers in next few weeks".
So revenue generating in the next few weeks!!!

i think we need some 2021 news to kick start things. Q1 (Feb to Apr) is now almost complete and the house market is buzzing so this should reflect in a good performance for OTMP.
YE financials are due on 8th June, it would be nice if we received a trading update before then.
In the last 2 months of financial year (Dec to Jan) total profit for year increased by £800k (£2.3m from £1.5m). If this momentum has continued into 2021, and all the pointers are that it has, then the next trading update should be very positive.

yes, great idea. I've noticed BRSD has increased their google marketing too as i'm getting the odd advert popping up. This should drive companies to the website too