Member Info for shandypants2

GP - you do realise IDP made a net loss don't you?

Improving gross profit is encouraging however if marketing costs and wages/admin are too high then it is irrelevant.

H1 is usually a high cost period for IDP - let's see how the H1 numbers look in Jan/Feb before any evidence of a turn around can be justified.

Reggie - don't worry about me. AIM has been difficult these last 6 months, but clearly it is not down 50% as is TGR.

I am tempted to do a cheeky top up, however, if i wait a little could i get in even lower?

When CEO states fully funded to x always take this with caution. TWD did a big raise at 200p not too long ago and yet only this week did another at 80p. ECR were fully funded for whole of 2021 according to the then CEO in early 2021 yet 2 months later did a raise . These things happen.

well the SP was 57p when the CEO joined and we are definitely in a better position now than we were then.
Clearly revenues are key but today's news is much needed and hopefully should result in some buying. Anything under 46p (£100m valuation) is a bargain IMHO

ridiculously large discount - almost 50%. I have been saying for a few months that a placing may be required but didn't think it would be this big or the discount so great. I'm sure someone on here suggested that if required a placing could be done at a premium!!

Not a good day.

Need to get some of these 81 contracts signed. Order book is quite small (c£2m once 2021 is delivered).

fairdealer - clearly not as the price as halved in the last 6 months, have you not noticed.

Everything seems to be progressing well so why such a big decline? IMHO funding the growth is unclear and the raise earlier in the year will not last too long unless revenues take off

the good thing with a retail deal is that there is always a decent upfront order to get stock on the shelves.
So over the last week it's c5,500 new stores stocking Slimbiome.
With 7 different products and maybe 10 of each ordered per store at £10 each that's almost £4m. These may not be recognised until H1 2022 but it's clearly a positive and shows how revenues are growing

PB - H1 2021 included c £4m one off costs relating to changing the company structure and spin off costs, so costs will be lower in H2. I think the £40m full year was also the lower end of the range so suspect it will be nearer £42m-£43m. IMHO i will be surprised if H2 is not EBITDA positive, although it may be lower than H1.

Nipped into Manchester yesterday and good to see the Slim Biome products getting good shelf space - colorful packaging too so definitely eye catching. Same with the weight management section of the website. Hopefully bodes well from a revenue perspective

they will potentially be 'bad' because they didn't start selling on 1st July. They've spent the majority of this time getting payer coverage set up - so potentially the selling will be mainly confined to a the Nov/Dec period.

No issues with the set up or strategy - it has just taken a bit longer than previous management expected - current CEO has been honest and upfront from day 1. Biggest red flag was CEO stating accrufer is great but the awareness in the US is very low. Building this awareness and obtaining payer coverage has been the focus - hopefully revenues are slowly building now

Red - good summary.

I think the $500 is a gross price - i think STX has stated $250 to them. Still massive profit though.

The current issue that is suppressing the SP is the time it will take for Accrufer to be accepted/embedded as an alternative iron supplement (in between the cheap salt based tablets and the expensive IV). At present it appears getting payer coverage (i.e. insurance company approval) is taking time and therefore revenues to date will be low. The cost of the US sales operation is pretty fixed so we will be burning cash ATM. The time to get to US breakeven is key - if another placing is required the dilution will be excessive at the current low SP.

We've had no news for months so i most people must be assuming revenues are low - if not why not say? Alternatively CEO could be doing it by the book and will update in Jan when YE figures are confirmed. We could all certainly do with some good news.

Incidentally the 30 salesforce is focusing on the top 4k prescribers so if we do get to 60 i suspect the top 30% (11k doctors/clinicians) will be the target - not the 80% you state.

CEO gets 1m shares on his 1st anniversary , so June 2022, regardless of SP, however, as SP has halved since he joined i'm guessing he will not be happy. Other 600k shares are based on SP performance.

newsflow has definitely increased recently and all has been positive so i think CF has been true to his (recent) word. Let the SP take care of itself.
However, i am hoping for a Malaria contract in the not too distance future as this was added a month or so ago and discussions are ongoing (based on RNS where 1 to 2 contracts were expected in before YE).

Kefir is great, full of good bacteria - the drink, either plain or flavoured e.g. strawberry, mango etc are in the milk aisle of all good supermarkets - even Aldi stock it

Great news but how will this expansion be funded? Surely a placing will be done in the next year as TGR continues to be loss making and needs to fund the growth

LR earned $247k last year including a 28% bonus according to the accounts. During this period i think the SP has halved and we are no nearer to either a sell or being revenue generating.
Whilst apathy is an issue you need 1 or 2 large shareholders to pull together to get a BOD removed and the EUZ shareholding is too disparate so this was never going to happen.
I've decided to move on, what else can we do??

i suspect a few of the largest venues e.g the Cuba on Quay St in Manchester, can accommodate 500 plus. Losing some of the xmas trade will definitely have an impact and this was alluded to in the last trading update prior to these restrictions coming in.
Whether you like the restrictions or not they are in.
On a positive the younger crowd seem to be the ones still going out so hopefully RBG will better placed than some of the other pub/bar companies

as of yesterday India revenues would have been almost zero. Today we are selling in 4,000 outlets. If each store does £1k a year (that is only £20 a week) that is annual revenues of c£4m. Current total revenues are just over £2m.

India is a massive country so even a small % will generate significant revenues.

Can't believe the negativity

in TWs defence the Norgine deal was sorted before he even joined the company - previous CEO Carl Sherritt signed that one and received a massive bonus that year for doing so!! There was a significant upfront milestone payment too so suspect STX's hands are tied. Clearly Norgine won't be making much out of feraccru too so it is in their interests to get things moving, however, it appears they control the pace of change. Just to commence selling in other European countries and also Aust and NZ would be a start.

opportunities for growth in the medium term - so 2 to 3 years?? Not overly bullish

will we get news this week?? lloyds are a massive company and these things can take time for approvals etc to be obtained. Still hoping they might just buy Satago so no competitors can use it

what is the revenue target for IDP - i can't find one and FinnCap has had a 90p target for over a year (previously 180p)?
Last year in mid Sept we were told revenues were also on target but then at H1 it had dropped over 20% from previous year.

Prolong was purchased for £1m and as of last year's accounts had £90k in stock so selling at a c50% loss is not a massive positive IMHO.

Mark Ward bought over 2m shares in the 70p range so i'm reserving judgement (also has a big holding in RBG which is not performing well).

Let's see how H1 looks and the cash position - too early to see if things are improving, especially as YE 2021 numbers have not been published yet