Member Info for shandypants2

Agree the SP decline is horrible, but looking back on the company's RNS history it rarely gives trading updates. It did last year in Feb, so i was expecting similar this year, but this seems a one off. It didn't do one for YE in July and merely published the results as standard in Sept.
From this i would read we are on track as per previously advised. If we were not they would have to tell us.
So hopefully, no news is good news

YE figures until 31/1/22 have been announced and things look ok - revenue grew by a third and are now over £30m although profit at £2.6m is a little disappointing considering the H1 performance was really good - assume much of the H2 gross profit went into the TV advertising campaign.

With a healthy cash position and a not excessive valuation there is a lot to like here.

My main concern is that RM is going from strength to strength - it recently announced excellent results and the SP has risen accordingly. So 2021 was clearly a good year for house selling.
The shift of getting free/discounted agents to move to fully paying customers appears to be moving at a slower pace than i was hoping.
Having said that if revenues can keep increasing by c 20%p.a the profits will follow.

agree, a little underwhelming. H2 hasn't built on good progress on H1 and Skin shares aside Opti is still loss making.
Struggling to see where the short term revenues increases are going to come from. Lean Biome perhaps??

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/974615/shield-therapeutics-making-very-good-commercial-progress-says-proactive-research-974615.html

Not sure if this has previously been posted.

I think (and hope!) many have misunderstood what STX has been doing over the last 6 months. Yes £100k from the US is peanuts but now it is clear they have not been selling for most of this period.

Brand awareness was the big issue to deal with as Greg stated early on that awareness of Accrufer was very low. Clearly, no one will prescribe it if they don't know about it.
Then there is the payer coverage - clearly STX wants paying for the product, and this will only happen when the insurers have it on their approved list. We were told this process can take up to 6 months, and we are now seeing the evidence of this.
So really the above 2 go hand in hand.

Now it appears that 2,500 prescriptions were issued in the 6 months, the majority in Q4. This equate to c£40 per prescription. From this it is fair to assume that maybe 80 to 90% are via the low cost method prior to payer coverage being approved. Hopefully the majority of these will move onto the insurer payment method when the next prescription is due (so i can see this increasing a minimum of 5 fold).

I also think i've read that the 2,500 is only across c10% of the targeted top 4k clinicians. If so i would expect this to start increasing quite quickly now. Surely it is reasonable to expect 80% of these top iron prescribers to be prescribing accrufer for patients.

So i would expect the number of prescriptions to start rising quite quickly now and also the average revenue per prescription. Obviously the unknown is how quickly this will increase. The CEO is experienced in this field and has always refused to quote numbers, as clearly it is not an exact science. However, i do get the impression that things behind the scenes are progressing in line with his expectations.

Cash is clearly an issue, but from here the rewards v risk look compelling (not a great comfort for many LTHs like me though!).

IMHO cash is ok unless the purchase another brand. NGHT's strategy is to increase their venues, but i see this predominantly as expansions to existing brands . Of the 25 negotiations not all will reach a positive conclusion and it is currently a good time to get empty spaces at knock down prices. Also, if we do come out of the pandemic, as is now expected, then the timing could be ideal. Also, these are leases, not freehold purchases, so the upfront cost is a lot lower, although clearly the new venues will need to be kitted out internally so this will incur some costs - maybe £50k per venue?
Finally, hopefully the current venues will be cash generative so cash should be growing from the main operations.

cash looks ok, but is it really. Fully funded for 2022? No company leaves a raise until the last minute so let's knock 3 months off this. I suspect a placing will be required in Q3, if not before.
Still has potential, but the timeframe is still someway off

A reassuring interview, however, after two 20% plus down days we need more than words.

this is my biggest holding so for me the last year has been a car crash.
Obviously the heavily discounted fundraise was so poorly managed - i'm sure if they did it maybe 3 months earlier we could have got between 80p and £1, rather than announce it in advance and then watch the SP slowly deteriorate.

Anyway, with the new CEO and US team in place i regained my enthusiasm . I think the big red flag was the CEO stating soon after joining the the product is great but the awareness of it in the US is very low. I think based on this alone all projections need to be pushed back by 6 months - so all current broker estimates are inaccurate IMHO.

Here we are 6 months on and revenues are just £100k. The market has reacted as expected. However, behind this we now know that 2,500 prescriptions have been issued (mainly prior to insurance approval) and since Dec insurance coverage has increased from 40m to 60m. I think 3 % have low iron levels so we now have access to c2m customers/patients.
Also perhaps most importantly awareness is now at 65%.

So where do we go from here? We need the 2,500 prescriptions to grow and quickly. We need these to be via the insurance route so we get a decent payment and not give it away for cost.
The next 6 months will be crucial in determining if the strategy is the correct one.

We know the top 10 clinicians prescribe 1k p.a so these 100 alone do 100k prescriptions a year. Getting 10% of this should not be that hard, so that's 10k prescriptions.

I do feel additional funding is now a certainty (Chinese milestone payment will not be received until mid to late 2023). I know that debt was previously suggested, but they said the same last year and look what happened? Another 100m shares at say 20p wouldn't be a disaster, but clearly wouldn't be great either.

I think 2023 should be a great year for STX but it needs to navigate the next 6 months. It's all about US revenue growth and funding - Europe etc are almost irrelevant in the big picture.

Hopefully we have the right CEO now (last one was a joke) but i was surprised at how low the upfront payments were from Korea and Canada as i was hoping for 7 figures from both.

agree Just - yes it was oversold but the rise this week cannot be justified by the RNS alone. If they can get a placing off at 5p as opposed to 3p it will all make sense

with today's drop and PBT c£8m for current year it looks like your PE of 10 is here!

Agree - i did like this bit from yesterday's RNS. Momentum is building:

With e-commerce becoming an integral activity for consumer brands of all sizes and across a wide range of sectors, BrandShield has already signed a number of new customer mandates across 2022. This strong customer traction for BrandShield's innovative software offers robust protection against cybercriminals and illegal online traders attempting to adversely affect companies' financial performances and endanger existing relationships with stakeholders.

i've seen rumours of up to 700p, within a minimum of 600p the benchmark, however, i'm less convinced NAS will go that high. They don't want to walk away though so early next week will come back with a take it or leave it offer. 560p is my guess, happy for it to be higher

560p take it or leave it offer coming IMHO

wow this is being pumped today. Hopefully, it is more than just hot air as this has been such a disappointing share over the last year or so. It has potential but this hasn't stopped the SP declining by c2/3rds

hopefully 10% drop was a few banking placing profit (a quick 50% plus on the 6p paid) .

A lot to come in next month or 2 so hopefully back to 10p soon.

Once they start producing this could double IMHO

Investor meets from last week - Q & As now updated.
You need to be registered so not sure if the link below will work.

Good to hear that Amazon margins are essentially the same as DTC. Answer re reducing ST seasonality was a bit poor - waffled about US and Oz having different peaks to UK. Yes, but as 90% of rev is UK based not overly relevant
https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/annual-general-meeting-32

have to agree. TR1 increase yesterday and price drops 5% - crazy.

Customer base growing nicely, products work and are much in demand.
Recent placing should ease any cash concerns.

20p - the IPO price - doesn't seem a big ask yet is a c50% increase from the current valuation.

i am less confident in the cash position. In H1 cash was $1.4m but this was soon after a fundraise of a similar amount, and operating cashflow for H1 shows a loss of $1.4m. So despite revenues increasing in H1 the cash declined a lot. In H2 rev was less than H1 so difficult to see how cash can be in a better position. If ITX was due the insurance money soon, or say a R&D payment, surely it would have been mentioned.

yet to have a YE update for 31/12/21. 2020 benefitted from Playstack mortal shell revenue in H2 2020 which may have added c£5m extra which will not be repeated in 2021 figures. H1 2021 was c£5m so i'm expected c£10m (12m would be fantastic) for FY 2021.
On a YoY this will be disappointing so assume they want to wait for the Satago trial to conclude. All seems very positive here so not overly worried, however, having worked for Lloyds getting them to make a formal decision can be painfully slow

Agree Just - cash at 30/6 was $1.4m and at YE $0.7m so a 700k cashburn in 6 months and if this continues money will run out in a few months.
ITX has always been loss making so the strategy was that with a high fixed costs more order will see the revenues grow enough to make a profit. This still seems some way off.
They has a similar issue only 12 to 18 months ago but recovered and went on a great SP run.

The mystery for me is when they did a placing last June at 12.5p why they didn't raise 2 or 3 times the amount they did. This could have really strengthened the balance sheet and pretty much guaranteed sufficient cash until they hit profitability.
Any raise now will be highly dilutive