Member Info for shandypants2

quick an upbeat interview.
Couple of positive takeaways IMHO.
Firstly he re-confirmed the YE numbers (c£7.5m i think) and that the company is fully funded to profitability. I was also pleased with the GDM progress - i think he said record numbers in Q1 2022 and i think he said April revenues were over 90% higher than the same time last year.
For 2021 YE GDM rev was £1.6m - but this was made up of £1m in H1 and only £600k in H2 (Jan to June 2021). When i contacted the company regarding this 40% fall in a supposedly growing business i was told that there were delays in advertising spend due to the lockdown.
For 2022 H1 GDM was £1.6m so i am hoping for similar in H2. If so the H2 performance needs to radically improve. It appears we are moving in the right direction on that front.
The other aspect of GDM H2 is the contribution of Stock Informer. For H1 it contributed £400k from mid Sept (so 3.5 months). Now this would have included the peak pre xmas period but even reducing monthly revenue by 20% for H2 that is well over £500k for the full 6 months. This time last year it wasn't owned so it's contribution was zero.
Also, when we purchased SI it was mentioned it's US equivalent website was very early stage and was a minimal contributor. Things look a lot better now so hopefully the US revenues are ramping up.

Hopefully all this progress will be reflected in YE numbers which is on 30/6.

my thoughts on the YE numbers are - ok, but not great and there are a few unanswered questions.

Firstly revenues. While a big Y to Y increase is clearly great, guidance was revised down at mid year to £40m (after £23m for H1) when many were expecting/hoping it will be £45m plus. To hit £39m (so less than £16m in H2) is a little underwhelming, although i appreciate big contracts can be clunky.

The £50m for 2022 has been reconfirmed (so a 25% YoY increase) but as we are now in June it would be nice for a little more detail on current performance.

As mentioned earlier the H1 report mentioned that gross margins had increased from 6% to 28%. There is no mention of gross margin in these YE numbers so interpret that as you wish.

YE cash is down so it is difficult to see how/why based on the fact that we have repeatedly been told the company is cash generative.

Finally, there is no mention of spin offs. I half expected a 2nd RNS from CF today, however, either he didn't want to interfere with the message today or maybe they spin offs are still some way away!!

i have just re-looked at the H1 2021 results.

In it it states that the gross margin has increased from 6% to 28%. For the YE results there is no mention of gross margin.
In the actual financials for both H1 and YE the reported contract revenues and the direct project and admin costs are very similar - i.e. the company is operating a little better than breakeven.
Clearly some of these costs will be non recurring e.g. some professional fees etc, but from the figures provided today it is difficult to agree with the statement that company is highly cash generative.
Cash used in operations for 2021 is actually down by £2,868k and although the YE cash figure of £15.7m is healthy it was boosted by c£11m in the placing at 11p back in 2020 (so essentially this money was raised, put in the bank account and has never been touched) .
It is also worth noting that trade payables is about £10m higher than trade receivables. I assume this is predominantly due to deposits paid to reserve slots.

formal results in October but should be a trading update late June/early July. Last update said YE should be at top end of forecasts. I can see it exceeding based on good Easter trading plus the long weekend coming up.
Covid restrictions seem to be a thing of the past too so that can only benefit companies like Revolution.
At a conservative PE of 10 and an EBITDA expected to be £10m that's a £100m valuation. RBG currently £35m

really disappointed for all LTHs.

There is nothing positive in this RNS IMHO. Delays and a rudderless BOD. Maybe there will be good news for NXP004 at some point, else this will be a painful next few months (even after today!)

Actually the info is contained in the RNS on 24/5 - i just didn't read that far down. Only 2 subscribers - Currie and Leahy. If i had bothered i would have topped up earlier this week!!!

nicwe, thanks for the reply and yes all seems logical.

A bit surprised the fundraise was taken up by just 2 people/companies but your rationale that Leahy was already a shareholder makes sense.

Still wouldn't be surprised to see another Tr1 in the next few days.

Hopefully all the bad news is out of the way now and the SP can start moving forward.

yes very positive - although if 10% of shares have been purchased who has sold? Clearly can't be acquired in the market as the price has barely moved and the reported trading volumes have been minimal

RR - every business is constrained to some extent - manufacturing capacity, number of employees etc.

OO has added almost 50% bed capacity recently and also enhanced the Manchester flu camp testing offering to avoid unnecessary trips to London.
Furthermore, the recent contract shows that OO is expanding its offering to provide more flexible testing/monitoring that doesn't require a patient to be monitored in house 24/7

so the takeover has now been approved. The enlarged company is currently valued at least than £20m which on paper seems cheap, however, currently these are 2 loss making companies.
We need to see revenues increase - get BAR products in Boots/superdrug and improved OTC offering which is IDPs strength and get IDP in groceries which is BARs.
Cost savings were quoted at £1.5m p.a. so these need to be materialised too

encouragingly i was out in Manchester this weekend and had a quick look in a couple of venues - the massive Revolucion de Cuba just off Deansgate and the Revolution Bar about 5 minutes away near St Annes Sq. Both looked quite full and lively at about 7pm. The de Cuba venue is massive and that site has had quite a turnover of bars over the last 10 or so years, so it was encouraging to see it so full. The Revolution bar is a little hidden away so i was less hopeful. It wasn't packed but had a decent crowd - some drinking some eating. Quite a mixed crowd too - not all youngsters by any means.
There is a lot of negativity around regarding cost of living etc but after 2 years of covid people still want to dress up and make a night of it .
There weren't many sober people on my late train home i can assure you!
All bodes well for YE figures IMHO (end of June/early July).

all good points raised. A 2nd placing in a few months is really poor and completely unacceptable.

As i said a few months ago whilst the growth is quite good (as long as it doesn't slow) it appears costs are increasing at a similar pace so we are still nowhere near breakeven.

Today's placing clearly proves this is still the case.

A trading update (hopefully a positive one) is long overdue.

What is happening to the WeShop money - it was mentioned that there is a lock in period, however, i have never seen this RNSed.

PB are you for real? "Pretty sure the results will be underwhelming. SP tells us that already " - well as the YE rev (£40m) and YE cash £15.6m were RNSed in March you are hardly making a ground breaking prediction.
2020 to 2021 revenue growth has been quite impressive and 2022 revenues should be a further increase of at least 25%.
Clearly some things have not gone to plan, and i share your frustration, however IMHO the core business is looking really solid

The BODs statement from March 2021
"the Company is well capitalised to continue to deliver on its objectives, with an increased cash position of £1.8m compared to £1.6m at the start of the period."
What happened a year later - a massively discounted and signposted to mates fundraise .

Actions speak loader than words IMHO.

yes, got ,mine on HL too - looks ok expect the price 4.3p. Was hoping for 10p!!!

Japan is the one big market we have no coverage with and iron deficiency is a big issue there. We know that CEO is looking to expand coverage and has already done deals in Canada and S.Korea, albeit for minimal upfront payments. Japan is the next logical one to go for and i think the Korean company already cover Japan. STX has never mentioned a Japanese deal BTW. People, including me are merely joining the dots.

IMHO the previous debt facility is irrelevant now. Firstly, it was set up as a short term arrangement to either get us to a commercial deal in the US or the placing, which did happen a month or so later. It was also not cheap considering both were existing shareholders and was only for £4m - STX will need more than that.

Currently, with the depressed SP if a placing is required it will result in massive dilution for existing shareholders. If say £10m is required at 10p that's 100m extra shares. If it's £20m then that's 200m shares. We have 216m shares so dilution could be either 1/3 or 1/2. Neither is great.

Hopefully it will not be required and US revenues are increasing at a decent rate, however, from the SP action the market is not convinced.

this is useful, thanks for posting.

It does show the potential growth for GDM, which is fantastic.

My only slightly negative comment is that whilst i agree GFIN should be profitable in 2023 (so the year from 1/7/22) that doesn't mean it will be profitable on 1/7/22 as stated. If it makes a H1 loss and and larger H2 profit then it is profitable for the year - just saying.

at 15p this now looks very cheap. H1 was a good set of results, despite the disruption over the xmas period due to omicron.
H2 should hopefully be better as restrictions have been lifted.
The pub chain Youngs published good results today and mentioned the excellent Easter trading period due to the good weather and also the extended bank holidays coming up at the beginning of June.
This should also be positive for RBG.
Finally, although cost of living issues are a massive concern generally the younger age group are less impacted as many are students or still live at home.
Even at a low EBITDA of say £10m for year at a conservative PE of 10 that's a £100m valuation. Currently this is c£35m.

really disappointing SP action today. In terms of the 2021 results CF did say he would try and get them out earlier this year - end of April was mentioned - however, he did mention it was complicated by having overseas operations in addition to the UK base. Hopefully, they will be published in the next week or so.
I really think this will help the SP, as long as the figures are as previously indicated.

As an example, today the Brown Group (BWNG) announced their results and they are up c30% , albeit from a very low base. These results were previously guided in late January so there is nothing really new in today's announcement other than formalising the previous announcement.
I'm hoping the same will happen for ORPH.

agree - the core company is in rude health and has been for some time. The SP and general sentiment are depressed but this provides an opportunity too. 2021 numbers should be finalised soon and if MO keeps adding contracts and CF sorts some/all of the proposed spin offs i'm hoping to see 30p again this calendar year.