Member Info for shandypants2

i think 30p is very achievable. That would value RBG at c£70m. I think 2023 could easily do EBITDA of 15m and a very low PE of 5 gets us to c£75m valuation.
Xmas period was massively impacted in 2021 so if 2022 has no restrictions immediately that will produce a big uplift. Also the refurbished bars (19 this year) will be completed and adding value. Furthermore a full year of the 2 new brands will add to the bottom line.
Clearly the economic headwinds will not help but i am not seeing much impact on the younger clientele. It is noticeable that the standard pubs that cater for an older crowd such as Wetherspoons are still suffering.

decent results - we already knew the numbers.
My slight concerns are that the number of agents moving from free/discounted deals to fully paid contracts seems quite low. If we are c10% of RM and give these agents free shares i would have thought this should be a no-brainer. The conversion rate seems quite low IMHO.

Also marketing costs - increased 80% this year to c£10m. This is a lot of money to spend to increase revenues by 20%. RM and Zoopla are clearly market leaders and have deep pockets.

encouraging update today, and pretty obvious based on other drink/pub companies recent trading and also how busy city centres are most weekends etc.
It appears the refurbishment programme will dent profits a bit as EBITDA of £10m seems quite low based on what was earned in H1, however, in the short term it makes sense to reinvest generated cash.
However, even with a ultra low PE of 5 on this RBG is valued at 50m and that is a 50% upside on the current valuation.
Assuming there are no more black swan events in the next couple of years this is massively undervalued IMHO

as per RNS late May JW has increased his position to over 6% from over 5%. This is a positive and it is all pretty transparent. If he reduced his holding it would be RNSed so you would know within a couple of days.
If he want he could have bought 2.99% in both his name and the same in his wife's (so 5.98% in total) and never had to declare an interest - just saying.

SKIN share price fall is clearly not helping - although when it goes up it doesn't transfer across to here!
The 3% ish sell last autumn was well timed

DS - if having a moan makes you feel better, you go for it.

Not sure you need to **** off other posters though. Similarly comments about EBITDA are just misguided - there are loads of £1bn plus companies who have never made a profit and have questionable business models (e.g. Deliveroo off the top of my head) .

OO is transforming from 2 loss making companies , this takes time. Finncap has OO both EBITDA and EBIT profitable for 2022.

The presentation had many positives last week and supports what the company said 9 months ago.

Based on you posts i assume you will be selling out.

students don't pay their student loans. It is only repaid when they start earning (more than £25k a year) and if not repaid gets cancelled at 50 (is being extended to 60, but not for those who already have it) .
If you are in student halls of residents bills are included in the prices BTW.
A couple of ****tails on a Saturday night is irrelevant whether it's £8 or £9 each IMHO.
RBG do food too - much of this is aimed at a slightly older clientele.
Have you ever been in a Revolution bar?
You need to improve your deramping skills

IMHO all the current info re OO's rev and cash position was RNS in Sept 2021 when the interims were published.
DS - you only post on one company and have suddenly got very negative? The 2021 YE position was in this RNS and essentially last week's numbers merely confirmed that things are going to plan.
Similarly the £50m 2022 was published then.
Why wait 9 months to voice your disapproval?
You've had 9 months to sell and move on - if you didn't stop blaming others.

YE financials including a current trading update was on 22/6/21 last year so hopefully will be in the next week or 2.
A H1 update was on 29/7 too so hopefully the same next year.
Hopefully they will show steady progress.

LST update not great - did they take some profit when this was over 20p about 6 months ago?

i think there has been 1 trade in over a week now on TST. Such low trading volumes cannot surely be a good thing. A great little company but it appears no one really notices or cares. Maybe the BOD could up their PR, which is pretty non existent

Stt1 - you need to take a chill pill. Cash will go up and down each day and will look better if a big deposit/payment has been received and will look worse if a big bill has just been paid e.g. annual corp tax or quarterly VAT for example.
Quoting a cash position on a single day can be slightly misleading, although it is clearly required as part of the accounts.

In the interview CFO stated deposits for recent contracts was incoming so that will clearly boost the coffers by c£3m. As for the cash position last year i was a little disappointed too, however, creating new challenge study models e.g. malaria, is an expensive process. This was undertaken in H2.

Agree, thanks Slimbo,

To add to your excellent work FinnCap has £49m revenue for 2022, A Gross Profit of 15.3m, EBITDA of £7m and EBIT of £4.1.

Based on their 2021 analysis against actuals they had gross margin of 27% for 2021 and this is estimated to increase to 31% in 2022.

Bear - for balance i believe CF bought 41m of these shares at 5.6p back in 2019 and then another 1m plus last year at 26.5p.
So whilst i am sure he is hurting he is still 100% up on his investment

based on these numbers for 2021, 2022 will also be a loss for NTOG despite factoring in higher daily production and the very high oil price. Disappointing.

Bob in answer toy our questions below, my thoughts are...
Do you mean revenue rather than cashflow?
The limited capacity has only recently been increased from 43 to 62 beds so a 47% increase. So there is the short term capacity increase. Contract sizes have been regularly increasing too so there is your price increase - last week we signed the biggest ever contract.
Revenues will be up 25% in 2022 and hopefully by a similar amount in 2023. Is that not sufficient revenue expansion for you?
DIM is disappointing but it is not factored into the current SP so there can only be an upside when/if something happens.
Other than sentiment i am not sure what downside risks you are concerned about.
All IMHO

"Where will the future cash flows come from given the limited capacity? Only way to expand cash flows are new facilities (big increase in cost base) or raise prices. Also with DiM = zero revenues in yet and none planned until spun off.....when. The downside risks are now far outweighing things on the upside.....would love to be corrected here...."

i have just re-listened to the presentation and i am in a better frame of mind than yesterday.

As mentioned yesterday 2021 were good, but a little underwhelming, and the cash was also a little disappointing.
However, clearly transforming the business has taken longer than people hoped/expected. 2021 was the transformational year moving from loss making to a breakeven and now 2022 should see revenue growth and EBITDA rising accordingly.
Mo seems a very capable CEO and is clearly adding value.

Some of the good points mentioned last night were:
- pipeline of business (singed contracts, not leads) the highest it has ever been. Visibility for next 9 months. So we are fully booked until March 2023.
- weighted pipeline higher than previously disclosed - so potential new business is increasing
- 100% contracted for 2022 revenues - so they know they have £50m in the bag (only caveat is that timings might vary a little)
- well positioned for growth in 2023
- 2022 will be double digit EBITDA and this will grow
- Mo committed to buy shares

Clearly previous comments from CF have damaged sentiment and the delay in the spin offs is disappointing - maybe DIM can be launched in house and then spun off later??

However, if say we have revenues of £50m in 2022 and £60m in 2023 (25% and 20% increases respectively) and double digit EBITDA then this is still a very solid company.

City Group pubs reports some encouraging trading today - 2022 revenues are 5% higher than 2019 levels and the jubilee weekend was 20% higher.
Just looked back at 2019 for RBG - it was £151m (2020 was £110m with H2 impacted by covid).
H1 was £74m, so it looks very possible that 2019 revenues will be exceeded. With the cost savings made in the last year and non profitable bars closed too hopefully EBITDA will also improve.
With YE on 30/6 hopefully we shall hear something soon - if we are exceeding targets the market must be informed and i suspect the Jubilee weekend was a pivotal weekend.

James has done an interview on V o x markets (link never words, but easy to find).

All very positive and he reiterates that TRU is fully funded to profitability. Obviously this isn't a major surprise as this was part of the reason for the recent placing that only completed a month or so ago, however, always reassuring when it is repeated.

quite not quick!!