Member Info for shandypants2

yes, unfortunately i think you are right. AOP should have issued an TR1 weeks ago. They have no need to buy in the open market as the conditions of the loan state they can convert their loan at 10% less the market value, as they did in early August. Also, with the 30% takeover limit they cannot really increase their holding now unless they go for a full offer.
I think as you say with the DNL RNS people have made a few assumptions.

Having said that due to the funding issues this share is very cheap and that would not have gone unnoticed.

Personally always thought one of the IV companies would come in for STX - almost a hedge in some respects.

This was partly covered in V ox interview. Results in October and whilst CEO couldn't say anything sensitive he confirmed that results must be in line with forecasts else they would have to RNS it - think this is c£7.2m for YE 30/6/22.
2023 projections (YE 30/6/23) are c£10m and PBT of £2m - the 1st profit reported by GFIN.
All seems to be progressing nicely

Link never works for v o x, but easy to find.

All very positive. Mentions Athlos is a recurring licence revenue model , so that answers that question.

Also mentions progress at GDM and Stock Informer in particular. Mentions improved charging rates in addition to adding new products. Also mentions may expand to non English sites.
Interesting that he said similar websites to those within GDM are being valued at £1.50 per customer. GDM has over 15m customers so that's c£23m valuation - the whole of GFIN is valued much less than that.

FinnCap includes 9p ( i think, or possibly 11p) for the spin offs so core business is valued at mid 30s.

Liberum has just taken 2023 EBITDA and adjusted by the sector average - 80% onto 12p. It has ignored the spin offs. Either way it appears we are currently quite cheap.

Good to see results on 8/9 - 2 weeks earlier than last year - Mo did say he would try and bring this forward (in a period when other companies are delaying due to covid etc). Hopefully EBITDA will be at least double last year's to show progress and ideally the YE £50m is upped a little, as i suspect that was always quite conservative. I'm sure he is trying to under promise and over deliver after the CF issues

i think these revenue numbers are terrible. I do think the products are great and there should be global demand - obesity crisis, statins don't work for cholesterol etc but progress is just so slow. It appears that none of the big deals signed across the globe are adding any decent revenues

everything is relative Aldebaran - i was in centre London this weekend and it was very crowded. Turned away from a couple of restaurants as already full (and that was after the lunchtime rush!). Pubs busy and people seemed happy paying £6 plus a pint.
In Manchester the week before and the film i watched was full - on a Wednesday!
SAL has only recently provided YE numbers and i suspect these are quite conservative to factor in the impact of a recession etc.
Your experiences are not necessarily a reflection of the whole country - many people don't game or watch Disney. Just saying.

how does SAAS pricing work?
If the Athlos technology has been used 73 million times over the last month does GFIN get a amount per user? Even 1p a user would be £730k which i'm guessing is too high as that's c£9m a year.
Does seem fantastic technology that is clearly going to be in demand and is also more than fit for purpose based on the high usage whilst in testing

SH i don't give a sh it about CINE - this is a STX board, i am merely concerned at the SP reaction when our large shareholder dilution comes in the next few months, as we currently only have sufficient cash to take us to the end of 2022.
In terms of language - FO and re-read your post on 17/8

Dave - thought there may be a bit of a delay with H1 - they do have 3 months so it could be mid Sept. My concern is that although they have increased payer coverage some of this was not done until April time so there is limited time for an uplift to H1 numbers . If STX got rid of 10 of their 30 salespeople (high turnover is common for sales) then they are 33% under capacity. Whilst they will get replaced it takes time to get them adding value.
I'm not expecting fantastic H1 growth, maybe 70 to 80% when ideally we need 100% plus minimum to show the strategy is working

Yes, SI looking good - have added covid tests and things like Lego too.

£400k rev in 3.5 months (mid Sept to 31 Dec 2021) so hopefully they have maintained or added to the c£100k a month, although guessing pre xmas is a peak season.

A couple of things to add - there is a US equivalent website that was under utilised and GFIN mentioned they were hoping to boost the US revenues. Clearly this is a massive market if they get that right.

Also, in terms of the SI purchase of £5m ( half shares and 1/2 cash - all done at 4p). It also includes a cash payment for the first 3 years based on 30% of revenues. So if say £5m generated in first 3 years GFIN pays out £1.5m - maybe this was part of the reason for the large placing in March 2022.

I am hoping in a couple of years GDM revenues and profits can underpin the rest of the business

FFS can you read - i wasn't comparing the two - i was pointing out the SP impact when massive shareholder dilution was RNSed.
Whilst not in CINE if you think their issues are due to not reducing their ticket prices you are deluded. They were highly indebted before covid so the lockdown had a massive impact. Surely at that point they needed a big placing to strengthen the balance sheet. Instead they took on more debt and so need full houses to service the debt.

Back to STX - hopefully H1 numbers will be out soon. Clearly US numbers are key - we need these increasing at a decent rate e.g. 100% per quarter. This should lead to a reduction in monthly cash burn and a path to profitability

loads of people constantly adjust their positions, i'm not sure what the big deal is. If you have limited cash and want to purchase another share what else can you do, especially if you are in profit on a share ( i think a lot of his shares were bought at 8p).
JW has never had a TR1 so although definitely holds a large position of 6 figures ££ if he has reduced then no TR1 is required

it always amuses/annoys me when we get a decent RNS and so many have to be negative - much worse on ADVFN but there's a few on here too, as we know.

The core business is clearly in a good state and Mo is adding value as CEO. He is getting more repeat business and cross selling to existing clients in addition to new business from other pharmas. Getting a contract now for mid/late 2023 shows we have clear revenue visibility over the next 12 to 18 months.

H1 numbers next month will be important - firstly to confirm 2022 revenue numbers (although hopefully to exceed them!) and also our first profit (PBT not just EBITDA). Many are also focusing on cash - this is important , but it's the overall net current asset figure that is more important for me as cash alone is a crude measure (and of course will include deposits for future contracts).

Hopefully we will also get at least 1 spin off completed - CF has been quiet recently and of course was stupid announcing dates. DIM is a massive asset IMHO and appears to be valued at zero based on the current SP

wow 'muppet' - are you 12 or just a really rude tw at??

Clearly CINE has massive debt and is in a completely different sector but it's the considerable shareholder dilution i was comparing it with STX and the SP reaction.

STX has funding until end of 2022 - just over 4 months away. It has already told the market it tried and failed to get a $30m placing away, so we know it needs this amount to get through 2023 and hopefully to profitability in 2024 plus. Even if it is a 50% debt /placing the terms won't be good and there will be considerable shareholder dilution - at least 100% IMHO.
So DH please explain how you see STX getting finance for 2023 and what impact this will have on shareholder dilution. If you think we can raise more than 100% of the company's value via debt alone maybe you're the muppet.

Have you seen Cineworld today? Down c50% from an already depressed SP.
Due to funding requirements they have warned existing shareholders they will be considerable dilution in the coming weeks.

STX has already said they tried and failed to get a $30m placing away before taking the $10 loan - this has already resulted in c20% dilution.
I think the best scenario we can hope for is a combination of debt and fundraising in Q4.
Hopefully it will be better received than CINE today, especially if the CEO can evidence that prescription levels are rising steadily.

This took place in July 2022 and GFIN YE is 30/6 so i think this slight delay was part of the reason for the downgrade in rev (off the top of my head from c£9m to just over £7m i think) for 2022 numbers.

2023 should look so much better with GDM growth, including a full year of Stock Informer, the above event plus other esports events opening up after covid and of course CEO has repeatedly advised that we will be profitable - so that's PBT not just EBITDA.

A bit disappointing that following the new shares that came onto the market on 5/8 neither of the impacted large shareholders have bothered to submit a TR1.

AOP had 28.3m shares but purchased another 41m so have almost 70m shares in total, c 27% of the enlarged shares in issue.

Also Inventages the investment fund that holds 56m shares will be impacted. When there were 117m shares they held 47% of STX but did not participate in the placing last year. This % therefore reduced to 26% (based on 216m shares).
With 257m shares now issued this % is down to less than 22%.

Energy i am interested in your opinion. Why do you not rate the BOD and why do you think this is hyped?
It is in a good ' green' space and revenues are growing. YE accounts are required to get a better grip on things but H1 looked ok, if unspectacular to me.
It did get hyped a bit last year due to the Mail on Sunday tip but the share has more than halved since that high.
Thanks in advance

at the interims there was almost £90m of stock. Make up has a shelf life so potentially 10% may need to be written off - that's a £10m hit to the balancer sheet. Yes doesn't impact the net debt but clearly not good.

Jam, the 80% figure is not applicable to POLX IMHO. It is an imaging machine not a drug and the currently used alternative is a radiation risk and is 2D only. Also, as this is a re-submission based on issues with the manufacturing it is massively de-risked IMHO. It appears the brokers under-estimated the risks last time and are over estimating them this time.

Agree Brighty GDM seems to be going from strength to strength - this is a low risk high margin business so underpins GFIN growth over the next few years.
Stock Informer (the big earners as you get paid for clicks plus ads) has been revamped with new products added, covid tests have recently been added.
Epic Stream has supposedly just had 1m views in a day, for the first time. This is great growth - was c20k a day only a couple of years ago