Member Info for shandypants2

recent RNS from city pub group regarding their healthy revenues is encouraging. These are more upmarket pubs (not a wetherspoons type) and all do food.
A reasonable barometer for RBG. The last few trading updates have all been positive so hopefully this will continue as we approach winter. Hopefully covid doesn't resurface in high numbers (as it has never really gone away)

have to agree jolly - EBITDA was c£2m last year so was hoping for parity this year.
New contracts are a big positive though and it does appear the recent acquisition is starting to add value

agree - very disappointing, but not a disaster.

Does make me wonder if the FDA have been a bit slow doing their due diligence. Raising this a week or so before the decision date seems strange. The fact that they have committed to regular communications during this 90 day extension appears to indicate that they know they are in the wrong, and hopefully means the issues are not significant.

according to my wife most make up has a 1 year to 18 month shelf life. REVB had £89m inventory at H1 - up from £65m the same time the year before.
I'd be surprised if 10% isn't written off - could be as much as 20%.

was concerned after the presentation we would see a SP drift down in anticipation of not great funding news and it appears this is the case.
With CEO stating that prescription info will only be provided quarterly and there will be a time lag i can't see any news dropping until late October - this is cutting things fine from a funding perspective as i suspect this data will be important

I get where you are coming from PJT.
The CEO in interviews always comes across as quite reserved but i do agree perhaps they were a little too confident last time - even the house broker thought it was a given. I think he has deliberately avoided many interviews this time to ensure there is limited hype.
I notice the last presentation is dated April 2021, however, it could be argued that nothing has really changed since - essentially the company has been in limbo for the last year.

This is from the YE RNS in May 2022.
I don't read this they are taking things lightly. I think they have been very thorough this time.

"We spent much of the year gearing towards our anticipated FDA approval, although the FDA confirmed in October that they were unable to approve the NDA in its current form due to some technical or manufacturing-related issues centred around the xenon hyperpolariser system. We worked hard with consultants and collaborators to thoroughly address the items raised and successfully resubmitted our application post-period end, in March 2022. We now have an established user fee goal date of 30 September 2022 and will continue to focus our efforts on building our commercial organisation to support a successful launch upon FDA approval.

i think both Citizen and PB and partly right.
The H1 numbers were a little underwhelming for a self styled fast growing company. Yes margins are increasing (slowly) and YE 2022 guidance was reiterated but IMHO this looks challenging. Even with say £48m rev for 2022 that's a 23% YoY increase, which is decent growth.
The 2023 revenue of £55m also looks underwhelming, although maybe this was poorly communicated - i think this should have been a minimum of... etc. I do feel we need another c20% YoY growth.
From the recent presentation IMHO whilst Mo appears a safe pair of hands as CEO the CFO didn't come across that well.
How will we continue growing - we will increase EBITDA margins a bit. Is that it??
I do also feel the SP has been penalised for CF's over enthusiastic comments, however, having said that the buzz around this stock has definitely gone. For all his faults CF did create a buzz before and after every presentation. Now nothing.
The lack of news on spin offs is very disappointing - conservatively valued at 9p. For the life of me i can't understand why DIM cannot be kicked off within ORPH and then spun off later. Similarly the issues with Seek and Immutex have been known for over 2 years now and still no progress.
At the current SP i don't think the valuation is challenging and we could get some spin off news at any time. Also more contract news would be good (malaria CS!!) as it is clear that the contracts are getting bigger and more valuable. Having said that it is possible we don't hear any news for the next 2 months!!

IMHO the previous 90% chance of success was overly optimistic and now due to supposed FDA 'unpredictability' some seem to think this is now a 50:50 play.
Previously POLX had changed the xenon gas manufacturing and this was the main FDA concerns - the imaging technology was not questioned.
So arguably 80% of the submission has already been accepted - this has got to de-risk the re-submission.
Since then POLX has told us that the FDA has asked a number of questions/raised queries and these have been responded to. Again all good IMHO.
Clearly this is still a binary play but i think people are being overly cautious. i now feel the 90% chance of success is accurate. We will see in a week or so.

silver - just because the cash position isn't impacted does not mitigate the impact.
Make up has a shelf like so if they are not factoring this in to your stock valuation then that is a big negative IMHO. Similarly, revenue recognition issues essentially means they are front loading - again really questionable business practices as there are clear accounting rules as to when revenues are to be reported.
If the BOD reported say a one off £10m additional loss due to stock write down and a reduction in revenues for the period being reported to argue there is no cash impact so it's not a big issue would be a strange position to take IMHO.
Regardless of the outcome i am questioning if the BOD is fit for purpose. I can see some senior level changes in the coming months.

I think people not expecting any issues are being a little naive. The RNS - see below - clearly states that there could be a material impact on 2022 profitability, so therefore, there will be.
Bad debt and stock provisioning could easily result in a 10% write down of stock - so c£8m i think, and issues with revenue recognition are clearly not a positive.
Hopefully, as it is the same auditor that has previously been used the issues will be manageable, however, the BOD must take a good look at themselves as these issues were clearly avoidable.

The auditors have subsequently raised certain accounting issues with management regarding the audit and these could have a material impact on the results for FY22 that have previously been communicated by the Group. In the event that material adjustments are required, the Group profitability for FY22 could be materially reduced across a number of potential adjustments including stock and bad debt provisioning and revenue recognition. Once these issues have been fully resolved and agreed between the auditors and management a further announcement will be made.

it will be an interesting next week or so for POLX. Currently a SP less than 60p looks very good value assuming a positive FDA decision will value this at £1 plus.
I will be surprised if this doesn't get into the 70s prior to mid next week but WTFDIK.
I have seen companies have a +80% day on FDA approval so if we stay in the 60s then the upside will come after the decision - currently i'm expecting c50% on the day (assuming a positive decision).

It does appear sentiment has been damaged due to the last FDA decision and now a greater % had been applied to a negative outcome. IMHO the % of success has greatly improved and this hasn't translated into the SP.

i think the (very) best we can hope for is 100% dilution with a combination of a placing and some other form of finance.
250m shares at say 6p would raise £15m.
Dave - good point re one of the big boys wanting to buy or do a JV - 18 months ago STX was valued at c£150m with no US revenues so it was an expensive option. Now it is showing revenue growth and is valued at less than 1/5th. A total buyout for say £50m to one of the larger IV suppliers would be a sensible bit of business IMHO - even if it was just as a hedge!!

One other downside to consider - the pound is currently at an all time low v the dollar. As an UK company any placing will be in GBP so the timing is not great.

surprised at the drop today - another 10k bought at 57.88. Too good an opportunity to ignore

GDM users numbers are increasing steadily.

Last RNS stated 15m in Dec 2021, 16m in Jan and 17m in March 2022. Now at almost 20m per month.
Short term target is 50p per user and 30m users - so £15m revenue per year.

For H2 (Jan 2022 to June 2022) i'm expecting maybe 25p and 17m users. So that's over £2m revenue for the 6 months.
For the current H1 it could be say 30p and 20m users - so £3m rev.

it had to pop at some point. 58p ish 2 weeks before FDA announcement is just too low. Maybe we won't get back to the 80s pre 30/9 as i was initially expecting but can definitely see mid to high 70s in the next week or so.

Bought an extra 15k shares at 57.50 a day or so ago - it was just too low IMHO.

do you know what SAL do? This is completely irrelevant to what SAL do.

It's about pop up promotions at train stations and retail centres etc.
I see them at Manchester Piccadilly station regularly, and they are usually well received.

They may not be to everyone's liking but at such a low SP valuation it could do ok.

The Norgine figures are very disappointing. After 3 or so years of European selling we are still at less than £1m revenue. Delays in roll outs to additional markets has also been frustrating. Even if Norgine pull their finger out i can't see these numbers being significant over the next few years, however, happy to be proved wrong.
For me it is USA or bust.
Extra funding is now critical and re-listening to the presentation hasn't filled me with confidence. All options are on the table !!! Well IMHO debt will be complex now as they have already used the IP to guarantee the existing loan, equity will be at a very low price and they already failed to get a placing away a few months ago. A JV or royalty sharing agreement were also mentioned. These two will be more complex to arrange and we are clearly running out of time.
Dave of the 2 US companies we were close to agreeing commercial terms with, when i spoke to Watts about 18 months ago i was surprised they were both reasonably small in size and supposedly none of the big players were interested. One of them had a complementary product that failed a phase 3 so they are clearly out of the running. The other i think had some financial issues - maybe this one can be revisited.

IMM is worth noting but is also completely different. It's a written response to a type c meeting - much less important and less formal than the new drug application submission that POLX is awaiting a 'complete' response to.
Whilst i agree the date of the response is not fixed it could be a day or so earlier too. Just saying

Have topped up as the lift off has not happened and we are now 2 weeks away. At under 60p it appears the FDA decision is being regarding as a bigger risk than it is IMHO. There is definitely money to be made here

what a joke.

We were told the current EV contact had minimum orders and penalty clauses if these were achieved. Is this now worthless?
I'm also fed up of the BOD telling us how big a pipeline of potential orders they have - when was the last time a contract actually got signed.
Don't build a new factory if you don't have the orders lined up to use the new facility.