Member Info for shandypants2

Yes i did JH, did you not read my comments on cashflow concerns and expensive debt? I remember my grandma once told me if you have nothing constructive to say, don't say anything, however, maybe you just like being a patronising tw at.

clearly the cashflow issues are a concern and raising money at the moment is problematic, but hopefully the SP damage is now done and things can start to slowly improve.
The order book is healthy and there is much demand.

SP is now 25% lower than the warrants so they are not looking as cheap as they did on Friday!

The CFO and CEO (who is part founder and holds millions of shares and share options) were recently both awarded a 100% bonus on top of their competitive salaries.
I have no issue with a bonus being paid but based on the YE numbers recently published and the SP performance these seem excessive IMHO.

BS , are you talking BS? A bar refit is usually 4 to 12 weeks depending on the size, scale and finish etc.

There are companies that specialise in doing this quickly - 2 weeks is the absolute minimum, not the norm, but clearly you have to pay extra for and the re-fit need to be quite basic e.g. no kitchen re-fits.

If a bar isn't profitable re-fitting it seems to be an odd strategy IMHO.

I have no issue with the re-fit strategy, however, the pace seems excessive, especially now we have just bought Peach pubs.

2 days from December and still no news.
It is not a good time to raise money - EAAS (debt) and DVRG (placing) have both done recently at massive cost to existing shareholders.
The longer this takes the worse the terms IMHO.
Happy to be proved wrong.

Maybe a JV for future profits can be pulled out of the bag with a larger pharma - maybe that's the best option available.
For the life of me can understand why one of the big IV iron companies hasn't done this, if only as a hedge.

last year's results are definitely ok else the company would need to inform the market - CEO said the same back in July/Aug.

However, we are now almost 5 months into 2023 and no news of trading. This is the critical part IMHO and maybe GFIN want to ensure this is as positive as possible e.g with the Saudi deal announced last week

Agree schools are an obvious target however these projects can only take place in the holidays ideally the summer one. This will limit the number of schools who EAAS can sign up. Less of an issue with a company building as you can isolate areas and move people around/WFH etc. This isn't possible with schools

Hopefully this is a little pause before the next step up.
We are weeks away from a FDA decision. The broker prices this at £1 based on a successful outcome, which IMHO must be a high % based on no issues with the technology merely questions regarding the gas manufacturing, however as this is a binary decision many are now being fearful.
The near 100% upside looks overly generous IMHO. When we get into December i will be surprised if this doesn't start creeping up to the high 60s/low 70s.

Agree Moni, although we need to see evidence that the contracts and feeding through to profitability.
YE numbers should show c£7m EBITDA and £4m PBT and then we need to see both figures steadily grow over the next few years.
Have to say the IC article was pretty 'basic' really, nothing new and merely pricing HVO on a forward PE basis.
No value assigned for any of the spin offs too.
POLB has shown this data is of excellent quality and is very valuable so if CF gets his act in order we might get a nice surprise over the next 6 months or so.

yes, saw that - a cool £41k.
Hopefully a few more of these over the next few weeks to get us back into the 60s

still no new - was 15/11 last year.

Was expecting they may be slightly delayed to ensure some goods news is also released alongside - we now have the Saudi tie up which could be massive, so surely there is no need to delay further.

Just checked out Stock Informer as pre xmas period is their most profitable period for the website - good to see the product mix continues to grow , they now have Air fryers as well as some xmas toys e.g. Barbie and Lego

thanks for the link Monkey. The comments from Amati are very interesting - FDA just did it to buy some time. I think there is strong logic behind this and even the 30 day extension appears to be due to the FDA only inspecting the manufacturing facility late in the day, rather than earlier during the 6 months process, as would be sensible.
Don't think we will revisit the 113p as was suggested but 70p ish looks nailed in the next month or so IMHO and hopefully £1 plus after FDA approval

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0015qwh/we-are-england-series-1-inside-the-jet-engine-factory-derby#xtor=CS8-1000-%5BPromo_Box%5D-%5BSport_Promo%5D-%5BSport_Promo%5D-%5BPS_IPLAYER~N~m0015qwh~P_WeAreEnglandInsideTheJetEngineFactory%5D

this is a good watch too

yes totally agree.

In mid Sept before the 3 month delay i think we were 65p ish and before the original decision in Oct 2021 we briefly got over £1 before settling in the low 90s just before announcement date. We are now half this price. Not expecting the same fireworks now but surely the 65p level seems quite conservative.
Arguably the outcome is more de-risked now than last year as we know the product is accepted it is merely the gas production that has required further clarification.

i'm guessing a placing is close - maybe at c15p. You always see a drop in the few days prior to it being finalised as those in the know sell off and buy back cheaper a few days later - AIM for you.

Hopefully with finances secure things should start to improve

some cash burn is clearly expected, however, this is the 3rd placing in 10 months (14p, 8p and now 6p) so there is clearly something wrong here .

They massively increased marketing spend yet the revenue increase in the last results was less than the extra expenditure. Yes it's good that new contracts are now slowly coming in but each contract is quite a low value (between £25k and £50k p.a. i think) so they need many more to get to breakeven - i think the loss was £6m last year.

This placing is clearly to keep the lights on so i'm not convinced they won't need more money in 2023 as the cost base is now so high. Happy to be proved wrong

Agree, they have stated that the refurbed bars have performed well and i suspect they are making up in part for previous years of under investment, but there is a balance. This surely is even more important since they have just spend £16m on Peach pubs.

I think they did over 20 bar refurbs last year and will do similar this year. Out of 65 ish bars that's almost a 1/3 last year and the same this year.

Not only does each refurb cost but you lose revenue in the few months when the bar is shut.

The capex expense was over £8.3m in the accounts just announced so after a good EBITDA the actual PBT was only £2.1m. This is ok as the current low SP values the company at £20m but say this capex was limited to £5m - well the PBT just reported would have been over £5m. Evenly a lowly PE of 10 would get a valuation of over £50m - where the SP was in early 2022.

After a couple of years of losses due to covid maybe they need to manage cash, pay down debt and generally tidy up the balance sheet and re-prioritise the refurb programme, maybe limit it to 13 bars , 20% of the estate per year.

To just add to comment re Spoons - they have debts of c£1bn so are forced to sell off some pubs to get this debt level down.
RBG has limited debt on their books and is highly cash generative.
Only negative for me is that they are aggressively using this cash to expand at pace - maybe a slowly refurbishment plan would be sensible in the current economic climate.
Peach seems similar to Youngs - more food than beer and Youngs trading this week was good so this bodes well IMHO

ocean - you might just get your 8p as the market doesn't appear overly keen on the acquisition.

Noticed Nightcap results today and same issues re trading since mid year. This ****tail bar chain has revenues about 1/3 of RBG, has next to no cash and is valued at the same as RBG. Thoughts?

Around trading - Youngs (upmarket pubs, with food) seem to be doing ok and Fulham Shore the restaurant chain also recently reported decent results (similar to RBG but valued at 3 times). Even Spoons has seen their beer decline reversed.

With covid lockdowns off the news - barely see a mask these days - hopefully the xmas party season will be back in full swing this year.
An important couple of months for RBG

Thanks for the link tomorrow - as Linde are market leaders in this space it would be a surprise/a massive concern if they didn't have sufficient documentation, trained staff, calibration etc though. Maybe the current volumes of production are so low that things are not as they should be. Hopefully easy to correct