Member Info for shandypants2

EBITDA £5m i think for 2023 on c£30m rev

Schools weren't shut for 2 years - i think they were closed for c20 weeks in total over 2 years and that includes holidays.
They were the least impacted by lockdowns - fact.
Do you not think most kids have brothers and sisters (plus mum and dad etc) - you can hardly socially distance when you are sharing a bedroom.
What you do think they did during the first lockdown? They played in gardens etc getting their hands muddy etc. How many people got pets during a lockdown - animals are full of germs.
Long covid - any explanation for that - over 80k kids have got that BTW. Infact don't answer, i'm not interested.

a good summary of the mess the FDA are in post covid, however, he now appears quietly confident, so that's good enough for me.
Pre decision i can see this going back above 60p - maybe 65p.
After a successful decision i would expect a 40% to 50% uplift so c90p.

FFS, you are clearly mad.

Most kids haven't had the bloody vaccine yet they are the ones impacted by Strep A. Why is that? Maybe because we were told schools were safe so many of them got low levels of covid, often more than once.
So yes their immune system have been compromised - but not by the vaccine, but by covid, the thing you state is similar to flu.
How many people suffer from long flu? No such thing? Well over 1m have long covid so it's clearly worse than flu.
Filtered, you tw at

England winning last night and playing next Sat at 7pm will be good news for pubs/bars.

Can't see many being in the bars for the WC games but suspect many will move on after the game finishes. That 9pm to 2am period will be lively next Sat.

wonderful first post.

This is potential legal action territory unless you can back this up. BTW as the pension will be outsourced these funds usually go directly to the pension provider e.g Standard Life etc. So 99.9% sure this is boll ocks

RAZ you really are a card. Below is the article you appear to be referring to - Whitty clearly states that there will be more cancer and heart disease deaths due to delays in treatment. These delays would have occurred regardless of lockdown as all non critical treatment was deferred in order that the NHS could cope with the extra demand due to covid. Also as the waiting list was already 4m before covid (now 7m) it is pretty obvious that treatment delays were already having an impact anyway - the UK has a poor record at cancer recovery as we often spot it too late when the original cancer has grown.

Please can we get back to HVO now

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11491871/Chris-Whitty-warns-Britain-faces-prolonged-period-excess-deaths.html

CEO pay packet is almost £750k for the year just completed and CFO is over £400k.

Both look excessive, especially at a time when the SP has tanked.

cash burn - based on H1 cash burn of £1.46m a month current funds will get us to Feb 2023, so the YE figure that has previously been mentioned is not a hard target.
Whilst i am concerned financing hasn't been sorted yet we do have a bit more time.
On ADVFN the idiots saying lights out in 20 days etc are being a little premature.
Why anyone would enjoy someone else's losses is beyond me, but that's another conversation

Agree MS, however, lets walk before we run.
Currently GFIN has never made a profit and current GDM revenues are 10 times lower than their aspiration target.
I too like Zak's short term target, however, has he ever got one of his predictions correct?

agree BBB, you need to ignore the JW hype (he blows very hot and cold on stocks), however, in his defence the broker was estimating approval at 90% so he was not the only one who was confident. I topped up the week before the Oct 2021 decision too!!

well sales are down (offset by acquisitions) costs are up and a loss has been reported (ignore the operating profit, this is before financing costs), so things are not looking ok IMHO, although i think the worst is over and H2 looks like things are improving.

Regarding the acquisitions i did wonder at the time if the 2 'premium' brands were a fit for CRL.
B and S cost about £5m and had revenues of almost £6m p.a. EH cost over £6m and had revenues of almost £4m p.a when acquired.
Today after a full 6 months trading for both we have £1.2m rev and £1.4m rev respectively. Both are significantly lower, B and S by c50%. This is a big red flag

i notice that Boots don't appear to be stocking this in stores anymore (although it is still available on the website). Superdrug dropped this about a year ago.
Such a shame as when the brand first appeared it did almost £1m revenues in year 1 from a standing start. Since then revenues have slowly declined despite it being picked up by Boots.
The old IDP brands are now Skinny Tan only really as the other brands (Charles +Lee, Roots and Prolong) all seem to be dying

I think the current broker post FDA approval SP is £1.
Previously it was higher based on future annual revenues reaching £170m and profits of c£45m p.a (based on machines being in 240 hospitals).
On the POLX website their last presentation was dated April 2021 but i suspect not much has changed.
They have identified 344 hospitals as initial targets based an immediate need basis and i believe they will initially target the top 100 of these.
Clearly there is Europe and the rest of the world too.
I think the initial cost per machine is c$500k and once a machine is installed there is the revenue form the xenon gas and also maintenance contracts.
If you use the 240 machine broker example (which seems quite conservative) and a PE of 20 that's c£4 a share.

Here's an old JW vid i've just found - i know he's not everyone's cup of tea but his analysis is useful
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sWJKwMHTkI

we live in hope , however, the BOD has repeatedly proved themselves pretty clueless when it comes to managing cash and undertaking finance. Leaving it this late looks very unprofessional IMHO.

Still hoping someone like Vifor Pharma will step in as i think they are the largest iron IV provider and this would be a useful addition to their iron supplements. £50m would be nothing and yet is a 100% upside on the current SP.

I hope you are right Sajy, and i also think this is pretty nailed on for approval.

However, just for balance the last RNS is below - it clearly states that periodic meetings will be arranged to address questions raised. Clearly, responses to questions can generate further questions so POLX do not know if all responses have been accepted in full by the FDA. However, we are now 2 months into a 3 month period so i suspect the hard graft has been completed by now. Good luck all LTH

the U.S. Food and Drug Administration ("FDA") has granted a 90-day extension to the review timeline of the New Drug Application ("NDA"), to 30 December 2022. The FDA will conduct periodic meetings during the extended review period to ensure that any questions that arise during the remaining review can be rapidly addressed to provide the best chance at a positive review decision by the extended date.

in terms of a future SP for GFIN 25p looks a little high IMHO especially as there are over 200m warrants now at 1.25p. This will suppress the price as assuming these get taken up then there will be over 1.5bn shares in total.

Having said that GDM alone should provide solid growth to underpin the SP - target is for this to produce £15m rev p.a (50m users at 30p each) and longer term £50m (100m users at 50p). Assuming 50% gross profit and 10 PE that's £250m alone for one part of the business. I think current growth will see c20m users generating 25p each (so £5m a year) for 2023.

wait until we are in December- the clock is ticking

If STX can navigate through the next 12 months then this should do well as the product is excellent, however, i have now lost all faith with the CEO and the BOD.
When GM was appointed i was pleased, he had relevant experience, was US based and was a clean slate. He spoke well and that reassured. In his defence i also think he told the company that their timelines were unrealistic and this would take 2 years to get traction (and they had only raised enough money for 12 to 18 months).
However, i think his last interview after the H1 numbers convinced me that STX was in for more pain. He was overly positive on performance and the company's prospects. Now i like a positive CEO, however, after burning through c£20m in a year and having just taken out an emergency loan to keep the lights on for an extra 6 months i thought this was deluded.
I also note that he has 1m options at 1.5p from 1/6/22 and he was yet to take up this option. What message does that give us shareholders?
In that interview we were also told there would be more communication and that prescription numbers would be released quarterly going forward. Since then there have been no updates.
Last minute fundraising is never ideal, and yet this is now where we are.

For me when the old CEO CS started selling his shares back in late Nov 2020 (when SP was still over £1) this should have been the red flag to get out. Lessons learned etc.

The Fullers CEO described the current level of business and bookings as 'absolutely fantastic' and i noticed Nightcap also said similar, despite not being food focused.
I am in Manchester on Saturday and have just tried to book a table at Revolution for 3pm. I was quite pleased the online system said all tables have been reserved (although they do have a few for walk ins).
The last 2 years have been massively impacted by covid so if this period gets back to pre covid levels it would be a big boost to H1 numbers, as the xmas period is the peak trading period for the RBG.

Could do with the train strikes being resolved prior to the Dec 16th/17th strikes, however, this looks the only negative.