Member Info for shandypants2

nice tick up this PM and a few big buys.
Hopefully back in the 60s soon

Just re-reading the RNS on current prescriptions levels and i have mis-interpreted the growth.
The statement is below. I think the growth from H1 2022 to Q3 is cumulative so for the 6 months there were 8477 prescriptions in total and up until the end of Q3 this has risen to 15,872 - so in Q3 alone there were an additional 7,395 or almost 2,500 per month (increased from c1,400 p.m in H1)
This would support the $2.4m rev for the 9 months at c$150 per prescription.
They also mention prescriptions for Q4 will be c9,700, which now makes sense as it is compared against 7,395 and not the 15k figure for Q3.
So for the full year 2022 prescriptions will be c25k.

If this is doubled in 2023 using the existing 30 salesmen that's 50k.
Increasing the salesforce to 100 is a 230% increase.
So a 230% uplift on the 50k gets us to over 160k prescriptions, which is higher than the company's estimate.
Clearly a few big assumptions made, but there is now at least a path to profitability which didn't exist yesterday.

In other news it appears our CEO has finally paid up for his 1m share options at 1.5p each. He was granted these back in June but until now declined to take up the option.

From RNS
Accrufer® prescriptions dispensed in the US have grown from 2,152 in H2 2021 to 8,477 in H1 2022 to 15,872 to the end of Q3 2022 with approximately 50% of prescriptions from Women's Health HCPs and approximately 43% from general practitioners. In the nine months to 30 September 2022, in the US, Accrufer® generated unaudited net revenues of US$2.4m and has achieved over 1,600 first-time prescribers of Accrufer®. Shield estimates that total prescriptions for Accrufer® in H2 2022 will increase by approximately 100% compared with H1 2022 and is forecasting that Q4 2022 prescriptions will exceed 9,700.

no, can buy at 320p yet 350p will be paid in a month or so, unless this falls through. Can't see that happening imho so a short term bargain!

price is where it is because sentiment has been damaged from the unexpected fundraise back in March which saw the SP retreat from 4p to 1.25p based on people in the know selling down to buy again at the placing.
Since then things have slowly improved, and a couple of good, potentially great, RNSs have been released, however, the YE accounts for 30/6/22 still haven't been released and the company has made no announcement.
The CEO previously stated these would be available late Oct, and last year they dropped on 15/11.
The delay could be due to a JV or similar being finalised, although with no news it is possible there is some bad news around the corner.
We really need the situation cleared up ASAP.

JW is really pushes this. Now valued at over £30m.
Just for comparison (well bars) NIghtcap is about a year ahead of XPF re bar expansion and now has about 50 i think. It has just announced rev for full year of c£35m and a small profit. Next year rev is estimated at over £50m. It is valued at c£18m. Cash is an issue, but they have now slowed their acquisitions so cashflow should start to improve.
The other that looks really cheap is revolution (RBG). Had issues with covid but after a couple of placings (last at 20p) things have improved. Last results had revenues over £140m and PBT of £2m (after spending over £8m on one off capital costs). It is valued slightly less than Nightcap despite being over twice the size.
Not saying XPF is over priced, as i find it difficult to value a fast growing company, but IMHO the other 2 seem very low. All IMHO

Thanks for clarifying SC - i have re-read it and you are 100% correct, but i am now less happy.

I presumed the 2 parties would keep their revenues separate but split some costs. As you say it is a revenue sharing agreement - 55% STX, 45% Viatris.
So for 2025 STX stated that on 580k prescriptions total net revenues could be $150m (so $258 per prescription) and the net revenue to STX will be c50% of this - so 45% to Viatris and cost of pills c5%.

This will have a negative impact from day 1 for STX as their sales are now over 5k prescriptions a month and Viatris is at zero. So essentially we will pay then 45% of our revenues and this will continue for some time until they get up to speed. We have seen with Norgine in Europe that a sales team that sells a number of products does not dedicate enough time and effort into a single product so the sales from this side are likely to be lower and i suspect will never get near the STX numbers.
So assuming revenues do get to $200m p.a. and STX does 55% of this and Viatris does 45% ($110m and $90m).
Viatris will pay STX a milestone of $15m but will benefit from 45% of $110m, which is clearly a lot more.
If, as i suspect, the Viatris % of sales is lower they benefit further.

So to get $4m monthly revenue to reach break even STX actually need prescriptions of 28k per month in total, or c340k a year - 45% more than i initially calculated. This is why breakeven which incidentally was meant to be about now based on initial sales estimates is now not until 2 years from now.

clearly it is good news overall as STX now has money for at least the next 12 months, and hopefully until profitability. If net revenues do get to over $100m then this could be a $1bn company (based on other pharma valuations).
Prescription numbers seem to now be rising nicely a near 100% increase from H2 to Q3 2022 is a decent performance and about as good as could be expected .
However, the devil is in the detail.
Viatris seems a good partnership but the royalty payments at less than 10% are low and only start when revenues are $100m. If this is based on the gross prescription cost of $500 per month pack that's 200k prescriptions (or as most prescriptions are for 3 months you could say that's 67k - however, if it's the net price of $250 then it's 134k.)
Using the Q3 15,872 prescriptions with 30 salesmen that's 63k a year. As Viatris will be starting from zero so will not have any repeat prescriptions to boost numbers i suspect there will be no royalties for maybe 2 years.

The figures for 2023, 2024 and 2025 are clearly finger in the air based on the 13.4m annual prescriptions. Clearly 1% is 134k, 2% 168k etc.
However, they do seem reasonable based on the Q3 figures. As stated if this was for a whole year that would be 63k p.a with 30 salesmen.
We are increasing to 50 and then there are the 50 from Viatris so a doubling of the above 63k in 2023 looks reasonably conservative IMHO.
WIth costs to increase the £45m a year let's say that $4m a month. At $260 net rev per prescription the target is 15k prescriptions or 180k per year.
I would ignore Viatris for now. Once the 50 STX salesmen reach say 10k prescriptions per month (and we are at 5k now) then the revenues will slow down the cash burn and things will start looking better.
Also don't forget by the end of 2023 we should have China, Korea and Canada approved and selling and hopefully Europe may be getting its act together too.
Good luck all LTH

I think the quote on on POLB RNS hasn't done us any harm - see below - after all not many companies can do human CSs.
Now a pre xmas contract to keep the momentum going would be ideal.

Matthijs Moerland, PhD, Principal Investigator at CHDR, said:

"LPS human challenge trials are a highly reliable way of measuring the efficacy of anti-inflammatory drugs and these initial data are an important first step. We are pleased to be involved in the development of a potential treatment for such an unmet need as severe influenza and we look forward to the vital insights that the full analysis will bring."

i do think the products have potential and the water monitoring and STC/labskin are focused on areas that have significant demand.
However, the debacle of the recent fundraise has clearly damaged sentiment and it is unclear who is steering the ship. GB's departure a week after giving him a new role creates a few unanswered questions.
If £18m rev is to be hit then that's £12m in H2 and we are 2 weeks form the end of the YE. I suspect this will not be hit. Similarly, the £10m placing only assigns c£2.5m to working capital. DVRG burnt through the 2021 £10m placing in about 9 months so expansion plans will have to slow.
Good luck all LTH

This is AIM so you never know but in March they needed to raise a minimum of £1m and eventually did £2.7m so they would have given them cash in the bank of £3.5m to £4m in total.
It is very unlikely they have burnt through even half of this and 2023 they are meant to be profitable so cash burn should hopefully now be a thing of the past.
However, clearly the silence is a concern

Mitchell and Butler's update today might bode well for Peach pubs. Their YE is late Sept and in the 6 weeks since their trading is up over 6% , and more than 11% when adjusted for lower VAT this time last year.
Both pub chains are focused on food so hopefully Peach is experiencing similar trading. RBG bought Peach pubs on 18/10.
Hopefully they have TVs to take advantage of the WC football too

Do they need to issue a notice regarding final results or can they just drop? As we are already well into December surely they will want to avoid the xmas week sp that really only gives the rest of this week and next (up to 16th Dec).
Looking back on the Athlos RNS in August at the time they stated they were exploring partnership opportunities, so potentially that could be the delay.

Hopefully the delay is to ensure good news is included and i am reasonably confident of that as the CEO states results were on track back in July/Aug and we had the pain of a fundraising back in March so surely cash can't be an issue.
Having said that the longer this goes on the more nervous people become.

I think the business model is really focused on the evenings so hopefully they make enough money then to offset the quiet periods.
Just checked and axe throwing this Fri is booked between 2pm and 10pm - so only slots are lunchtime and very late in the evening. That's a positive.
Just thought they might make more of an effort with the WC - they have bar and do food so could do it with ease

Agreed re B19. Just listened to JW podcast from weekend and whilst he has reduced EAAS he then states it's still holds 7% of his portfolio. As his portfolio is a few £m that's still a sizeable 6 figure chunk.
And let's face it who wouldn't have reduced exposure after the last funding.
So a complete lie by the bloke who doesn't own any shares, doesn't like to company but posts here constantly

I think H1 may be the opposite of last year. In 2021 post lockdown July to Oct ish was very strong with rev up 20% on pre covid levels. However, Nov saw a slowdown and Dec was severely impacted by the soft lockdown and the cancellation of office parties etc.
This year we know the early period was 10% down (but still 10% up on pre covid) but hopefully the WC and then xmas parties etc will more than make up for it. Having the xmas markets back in Manchester this year has made a big difference.
H1 was strong last year so to do similar this year would be ok, however, i'm still hopeful a busy xmas period will result in a small revenue increase.

was in a very busy Manchester last Friday (due to xmas markets) and thought i'd check out Boom in the Printworks. Now the Printworks is having some worked done so there was a lot of scaffolding around but i walked passed the entrance without seeing in. I found it when i tracked back - entrance is small as all the tables are below ground, there are 2 separate floors. Whilst it was lunchtime i was disappointed that other than staff the place was completely empty.

Having a chat with staff it really only gets busy in the evening and bookings were only advised on a weekend evening.
I was disappointed that they weren't set up at all for the World Cup - there was a game on during my visit and most of the local bars were packed.
Hopefully the busy evenings offset the quiet time - makes me wonder why they don't just open later in the day.

Cash - that's good to hear. Can i ask where you got this info from pre AGM?
Also when you say Q3 trading is now flat is that compared with 2019 or 2021?
Thanks in advance

ext - boll ocks, as usual.
If first 2 years of school is so important to build immunity then surely the under 4's would be dropping like flies, yet somehow they are least impacted. Strange that.

The unfortunates who have died are aged up to 12 - they've had 8 years in school.

HVO posts only now.

We really could do with another contract before xmas to keep the momentum going. Also a trading update in Jan would be good. They will know the 2022 revenues by then as they must be invoiced by 31/12 to be included in the 2022 figures

yes, security made 0.5m on £2.6m rev and locksmith £0.4m on rev of £3.2m so these 2 are clearly the higher margin part of the business.
Vigilant is a high labour business with low margins - £0.7m profit on almost £30m rev. Although new contracts show it is growing there are cost pressures, especially as wages/minimum wage is increasing from April. Furthermore, it appears a number of existing contracts are up for renewal.
I would expect the buy out price to be anywhere from 5 to 10 x operating profit. So £3.5m to £7m. I suspect it will nearer the lower end with some add ons based on performance over the next year or two.
Overall admin expenses were £6.2m so we need to understand how much of that is attached to Vigilant as clearly the bulk of this cannot be supported with the remaining businesses.
Overall i see this as a positive - getting rid of the Chairman, Morley, who hasn't really grown the business and yet takes a big salary each year isn't a bad thing IMHO.

what was that drop for? If JW is now nervous of a binary event seems a bit strange to suddenly get nervous at the point when it has the highest chance of approval and by definition this stock has always been a binary event.