Member Info for shandypants2

volumes are minimal, no need to panic.
All we know is that a decision will be made on or before 30th Dec.
MMs have no stock so even a few small sells are pushing this down.
Just image what will happen in reverse.
At the first decision date this was over 90p, in Sept this was c65p yet now a week or so away we are just over 50p.
Essentially we are at the some position as we were 14 months ago, arguably we are in a better position now as the CRL issues have been addressed.
Keep the faith!

I wasn't going to post Brook as you said you were done here, but as you have continued posting, regarding your statement that we are guessing at the size of JW's total portfolio, actually a bit of basic maths will tell you it's 7 figures.
For example he holds over 6% of SAL (RNS in May when price was well over £1, now c 80p). No RNS since.
SAL is c£2m market cap so 6% is c£120k. He recently stated he had c10% of his portfolio in SAL so therefore his total portfolio is well over £1m. Similarly he said he lost 20% in a recent quarter, more than he paid for his house. Even a number of years ago it would be difficult to buy a family home for less than £250k.
The bloke said he still holds 7% of his portfolio in EAAS, which will have been bought at a much higher price than today so pretty sure that will be a 6 figure investment.
He gets more right than he gets wrong and is well researched, and most importantly has access to CEOs etc.

I've given up on Norgine payment to be honest. Yes they are rising but from such a low base. 2020 rev was £700k, 2021 was £900k, H1 2022 was £700k.
This is not all profit too as pills cost c5 to 10% and there is also a 10% royalty payment.
Even is revenues doubled in 2023 we are looking at c£2m profit. Better than nothing but for me the next few years are US focused only. Success there will make or break this company (it could be argued the breaking has already happened!).

Well this was acquired only weeks ago for £16m and yet the whole Market cap of RBG is currently £19m.
Whilst i was a little disappointed this was purchased using debt and it is unclear if it as a good price overall i thought it a decent add on. Clearly the SP says otherwise.
In terms of the price paid based on the last PBT (£2.7m) it is c6 times profit. However, this PBT was higher than normal due to covid relief and VAT reductions. I think they are saying that EBITDA this year will be c£1.5m. If so £16m seems on the high side. Ultimately EBITDA is a little misleading IMHO, it is PBT that is key and RBG seem to continually spend/re-invest what they earn.

From the RNS
The Board anticipates 12 month site EBITDA for Peach in Revolution's current financial year to be over £5m with central costs in the region of £3.5m on turnover over £30m.

Significant cost synergies are expected to result from the Acquisition. It is estimated that cost savings through increased buying power, business combination and improved systems will generate at least £1.5m of synergies, taking pro-forma EBITDA to £3m once synergies have been fully realised. We expect these synergies to be largely delivered in FY24 (£1m) before being fully achieved in FY25. The costs to achieve such synergies are expected to be minimal.

yes, agreed, another good acquisition at a reasonable price.
IMHO cash is probably higher than you estimate. At last results it was just over £2.5m but this excluded trade receivables (money invoiced but not yet paid) which had increased by £1.7m YoY. We were told that 91% of this had been collected by the time the accounts were published. So potentially there is c£4m before this acquisition.
As you say this is before any money received for the security business currently being sold - hopefully another c£5m plus.

have a knock on impact on Marks?

I'm assuming a large % of the stock is manufactured in China and shipped over.

I have just seen an internet banner ad for Cholbiome. When i click on it it takes me to the page.
It allows me to order the x3 version and only once i hit buy does a warning appear that it is out of stock until Feb 2023!
Really poor allround.

https://optibiotix.online/collections/cholbiome-range?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIibH_48iF_AIVEVsVCB2I2Q3KEAEYASAAEgKWqfD_BwE

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/19/china/china-covid-study-one-million-deaths-intl-hnk-mic/index.html

I know China is essentially 2 years behind everyone else with their tough lockdown restrictions but the pictures on twitter of hospitals being overrun are shocking.
If there is another variant going round this will spread across the globe pretty quickly.

re-reading the RNS it states costs per year for STX will be c$45m per year in 2023 and 2024. Obviously another 20 salespeople need to be recruited but at a max this will be $5m ($250k x 20) so the extra costs seem excessive - another $10m on marketing means $20m overall as costs are being shared with Viatris.
For 2022 it appears the cash burn has been c£20m for the 11 months to 30/11 so let's say £22m for full year. For 2023 they are now £36m (based on 1.25 FX), over 50% increase.

Anyway using STX figures of $45m it appears best case the cashburn from the US will be $30m.
This is based on 150k prescriptions at $200 a pack and 50% revenues. For info STX estimate is 144k and current rev per pack is $150 so i am not trying to be conservative.
As we have just raised c$35m after costs i suspect the Chinese milestone payment in late 2023 is critical.

Dave and Dark the 22 salespeople is a little misleading IMHO.
In sales the turnover is always quite high as it is target driven so easy to identify those who are not meeting targets - most companies work on a 20% regular turnover - i.e 80% hit targets regularly and 20% do not. The 20% don't stay long. Repeatedly getting rid and rehiring adds to the costs.
I remember at H1 CEO mentioned the 30 salespeople had dropped to 20 as the under performers had been moved on and there would be re-hiring in H2.
It appears H2 has only got slightly better.
Look at the cashburn as this tells the story. H1 was c£9m so £1.5m a month.
On 31/8 after the loan the H1 RNS stated £8.2m cash. As of 30/11 we were at £700k so £2.5m a month in just those 3 months.
Hardly looks like a team working at 2/3 capacity.
Also shows you how the BOD manage cash. Knowing H2 would be tight they have implemented zero cost saving strategies. I've seen other BODs deferring a % of pay etc. Here the BOD get rewarded for underperformance

the pipeline of opportunities has remained a jam tomorrow target for the last few years. At an investor Q&A last year i'm sure CEO stated they didn't have a sales team. No wonder they never seem to get any meaningful deals over the line.

As you stated KJ, this was priced too low - the adjustment today into the 340s was always on the cards. 350 in a month and risk is low so surely less than 5% chance of it falling through

thanks for the link. Good interview, Mo sounds very positive without ramping. The £300m pipeline is very encouraging and is the first time i think they have mentioned the size of the non signed pipeline. Update in late Jan is good too.
Agree with the general comments re DIM. Clearly the data is second to none and we could be using this now rather than waiting for a spin off.
How long do POLB have access to it? Assume a fee can be paid once the free period expires.

Yesterday's investor meets presentation video is available to view if you didn't make it at the time (you will need to register - takes 30 seconds).
CEO Greg, as he did in the summer just after the last ditch loan was required to keep the lights on, is very positive and tells us how well the company is doing - the cash burn and the 90% fall in SP clear tell another story.
If you have been with STX for a while and read yesterday RNS there is nothing new regarding the product etc and the market analysis (number of US iron prescriptions etc) has been repeated for a couple of years now.
CEO Greg makes sure he avoids any 'difficult' questions during the Q&A making this part almost meaningless.
The biggest take away fro me is that Viatris don't have 50 salespeople and these people will need to be hired, as will an extra 20 at STX. It is expected this will be completed in April 2023 so i suspect these 70 won't make much contribution in H1. Therefore for me the overall 2023 number look a stretch and it appears we will be paying Viatris 45% of all revenues from day 1 despite them contributing nothing.
There was an interesting graph re quarterly prescription growth in 2022. Q1 looks like 2,800, Q2 5,700 and Q3 7,300. RNS states Q4 will be at least 9,700.
Based on this for the 30 salespeople already employed if this continues 2023 quarters could be 12k, 15k, 18k and 20k. That's 65k. A decent increase. - and much more than my 50k estimate yesterday.

getting near the £18m would at least (hopefully) stabilise the price around the 2p area.
There is usually a 10% leeway so anything over £16m may not require an RNS.
As revenues are essentially set on the date an invoice is generated (i.e. once a delivery is made) i suspect they won't know the actual amount until close to month end. I would not be surprised if we get a RNS saying a few invoices have slipped into Q1 hence cannot be reported in this year's figures.

From fundraise RNS.
Does anyone have confident that we will get £18m and EBITDA positive results?
The current SP and lack of news says No, IMHO

The Company announced on 5 August 2022 that the Board conservatively expects revenue to be in excess of £18 million for the full year to 31 December 2022, which, although below market expectations at the time, would equate to a near doubling of turnover from the full year 2021. The Company also expects that achieving this level of turnover would see an overall EBITDA positive result, reflecting the fact that the Company has invested in its growth, both evolving existing commercial relationships and forming new ones.

i also think the extension is also an admission that the FDA has been slow to process the NDA. The visit to the manufacturing facility was c1 month before the end of the 6 month period giving POLX limited time to reply to questions/queries.

As Amati alluded to the initial NDA was rejected as FDA were overrun with covid and there was pressure on them to complete NDAs on time. Easier to issue a CRL for a few minor issues to keep within the 6 month time period.

I think the FDA know they have treated POLX quite poorly so are now being a little more flexible.

I also strongly expect a positive outcome

quiet!!

Very quite BOD. What is GB doing now he has been sacked by DVRG and what impact does this have on MSYS?
Please update shareholders

absolute joke - i am now 99% down on this dog (and i sold half my holding at 260p in Sept 2021!).
Why build a new factory when the technology is still unproven?
Can't believe they couldn't get a placing away at 10p , which would still have been a large discount.
BOD has to go.