Member Info for shandypants2

A bit like the H1 update i'm a little underwhelmed. All areas are growing but quite slowly and total net revenues are less than staff costs, and that's before including operating expenses, hence the big loss.
Another £8m loss whilst the BOD take big salaries including bonuses whilst the SP goes down leaves a bad taste.
Cash must be managed going forward. At H1 it was £12.9m (after a placing and the £5m for Lloyds) and in the RNS it stated it was £10.6m on 31/8. We cannot continue burning c500k plus a month. Hopefully, things have improved in H2 as revenues have risen, especially in Satago. Hopefully YE cash is at least £8m.

On the positive Satago is now nearly live at lloyds and also Sage, so these should be big earners in the years to come. Do not under estimate the value of having 2 FTSE 100 companies onboard.
Oxygen continues growing steadily and is in a niche market with limit competition. Only last month a £26m big was rejected.

With the current market cap of £57m i suspect the combined value of Satago and Oxygen is significantly above this figure - maybe £50m each?

Unfortunately, until the cash is sorted this will only keep drifting down. It is almost insolvent based on the latest accounts.

Hopefully a positive H1 trading update will, at a minimum, get this back above 5p.
Q1 revenues were £7.6m so hopefully H1 will be c£15m. Last year H1 was £9.7m, so that's over 50% growth.
Clearly we need this to generate a healthy EBITDA and PBT too and the cash position needs to improve, however, hopefully EAAS can show they have turned a corner and the business is performing well

this was in early Feb last year so hopefully not too long to wait.
H2 is usually the best period for SAL so hopefully YE expectations have been reached and a small profit has been made.
Slightly concerned that the train strikes may have impacted H2 trading but the shopping centre business should more than offset this.

i know. cash £4.1m on 2/7/22 then £700k on on 17/10/22 and now (£2m - net Peach purchase) however this £2m reduction is during a period of peak xmas trading. I do think RBG is massively undervalued but cash burn is a little concerning IMHO.

agree with cash position - all of Peach purchase was put on the credit facility but would have expected xmas to have been very cash positive. Having said that RBG has been refurbishing some bars so this wouldn't be cheap - hopefully this will slow down in H2 to preserve cash. In 2022 results there was over £8m in one off capital expenditure so this is an area that could be reduced quickly.
Results are a bit disappointing IMHO. Whilst the train strikes would have had an impact - my work xmas meal was moved from Dec to late Jan as a result - i thought the Nov WC and covid impact xmas period last year would have seen maybe parity with last year.
CEO is good at taking a big salary and making excuses. He is also good at muddying the waters. Today's RNS has some comparisons with 2022 and others with 2019. Shutting some bars on Mon and Tues makes sense - the business model is focussed on weekends so it's a no brainer imho.
Get through 2023 and hopefully 2024 will see things recover - not just RBG, the whole economy!!

Haggis if the revenue drop was expected and forecast why is the company now saying that full year revenues will be significantly below market expectations?
If Blackwoods have been removed from Morrisons that's a big loss. It's a great gin but always thought it should be marketed more at the premium end rather than closer to a budget brand.
We were meant to have a whisky by Q4 2022. With the current cash position this won't be happening any time soon.
If anyone is looking at Red Leg i suspect a cheeky £5m bid would be difficult to turn down. Last year when DIS was c£10m i suspect it would have needed maybe £20m to interest the BOD.

looks pretty nailed on now. Timetable out so now just waiting for my money!

Haggis - talk about polishing a turd. Who changes distributor just before the peak season? Surely Jan/Feb would be the best time.
There is a very low cash position now so marketing spend will be limited and it is now critical that these new distribution channels pick up asap.
I wish i could share your optimism!

don't forget the £290m loan !! This is not included in an net cash position. IMHO net current assets would be a better figure to use and no mention of this.

my finger in the air estimates were based on number of players (250m) as per the RNS.
If you are saying a user can play multiple times per month - makes sense, but clearly a poorly worded RNS - then maybe divide by say 10 (so play 10 times per month).
Initial annual fees of £3m - c50% of current revenues.
And of course a similar deal could be done with other games providers.

Obviously i have no idea if 1p is a realistic 'charge' - could be 0.1p or 5p IMHO.

250m players online per month.

No idea how valuable this deal is but if say each user earns GFIN 'just' 1p per month that's £2.5m - £30m a year.
This could be transformational

Have to agree with your first comment Shp. Just looking at the the presentation on the POLX website shows the huge difference between the current 2d image and the POLX coloured 3d equivalent. Furthermore the recent long covid research highlighted the quality of the POLX images to show lung damage.
On your 2nd re a fundraise you may well be right, however, there are other options. The US is a massive country so a commercial agreement with a larger player could suit both parties. Alternatively, POLX could do similar commercial agreements in non US regions (Canada, Europe, Australia etc) and use this money to fund the US sales team.
They've had over a year to formulate this plan so hopefully we will find out soon.

Ocean - they made a profit last year despite over £8m of capital investment.
Most of the debt is on the leases which is pretty standard for these type of businesses.
They do have some covid loans to repay but they did generate £25m in cash last year so these should not be an issue.
I was not overly happy they funded the Peaches acquisition with debt, but at this low share price probably had little option. Not sure what the interest is on this credit facility as previously it was undrawn.
Hopefully RBG had a good xmas and NY to boost the coffers, especially as this period was covid impacted last year.

IMHO it's already a done deal. Who do you think is buying up all these sells?
One day a week or so ago there was 9m sells, over 1m yesterday.
Clearly buying at low 340s when you will be forced to pay 350p in a few weeks makes sense for the buyer.

a lot of negativity in last few days despite clearly brilliant news.
In terms of cash the £20m placing last year was well timed and gives them some leeway for the next 12 months at least.
They already have a sales teams and in previous presentations have already highlighted 344 US hospitals/medical centres that specialise in lung and pulmonary support.
Whilst all won't buy on day 1 i suspect they have already been approached so at least discussions have started - else what have the sales team been doing for the last year?
I note that the recent broker note had a NPV valuation of £1 based on 'only' 240 hospitals purchasing the equipment as the gas and service/maintenance elements ensure year on year revenue.
Also, don't forget this is only the US - now we have FDA approval the product can be used in other regions - it is possible that a commercial partner can be selected for say Europe, Canada, Australia/New Zealand etc ( i suspect Far East and China etc may want further studies prior to regulatory approval). Such deals will involve an upfront payment and a % of royalties etc.
Finally, we have a strategic partner in Bracco. They already manufacture CT and MRI scanners etc so this equipment would complement that and is clearly superior. I can see Bracco either doing a shared revenue partnership with POLX or maybe a straight buyout.
IMHO I see the next 12 to 24 months being a good one for POLX.

Below is the presentation from POLX's website, in case anyone hasn't already seen it. The answers are all in it!
https://www.polarean-ir.com/docs/librariesprovider37/archive/presentations/polarean-investor-presentation-jan-2021.pdf?v=090421

for info when STX went through FDA approval in 2019 their 6 month date was actually on a Saturday. At a Q&A the then CEO was asked about this. He said the date is auto generated and used as a guide by the FDA - it can be a day or so either side (as it was a weekend).
In reality the successful RNS dropped at 7am on the Friday - so STX must have been informed the previous day US time.
Based on this i doubt it will be the 28th - so 29th or 30th would be my guesstimate.

Apologise if this has already been picked up months ago.
This is clearly POLX tech - interesting that the research was done in the UK, i wasn't aware POLX had sold any scanners in the UK.
Just shows how got the tech is - come on FDA, do the right thing.

https://www.dpag.ox.ac.uk/news/hidden-lung-damage-found-in-long-covid-patients-with-breathlessness

Interesting RNS from Poolbeg today regarding the RSV challenge trial data - see excerpt below.
Whilst it appears the data, which is owned by HVO, is unique and of high quality, it needs quite a bit of data mining to get it into a meaningful position.
So is this the issue with DIM - the data is there but hasn't been properly mined yet. Potential users may not be willing to pay for this upfront and CF has to date not wanted to use existing HVO cash to do this.
Therefore, a spin off as with POLB is seen as the best approach as a dedicated fundraise will provide the resources required to achieve full value.

Since initiating the collaboration in February 2022, Poolbeg's scientific team has worked closely with OneThree to build a tailored AI approach that leverages Poolbeg's unique RSV human challenge trial data in order to identify disease-relevant biological pathways and potential drug targets. Based on those newly discovered drug targets, the collaboration has now identified a number of promising drug candidates to rapidly bring forward to lab-based validation to determine the full potential of these assets.

We are now a week or so from the calendar YE and the 6 months to publish YE 2022 accounts (up to 30/6/22) date.

The silence from the BOD is now causing some to de-risk.

IMHO there is something, hopefully positive, in the background such as a JV etc that they are hoping to complete, however, this date has clearly drifted so some notification is now required.

I don't see another placing as the March one raised far more than was required, however, until this is confirmed you can never say never.