Member Info for shandypants2

Re the CEO i am in 2 minds. I think he was honest and told them where Accrufer was it would take 2 years to get traction. They only had money for 1 year so expected him to focus on certain aspects to get the best uptake - don't forget they have identified 100 clinicans who prescribe 1k of iron supplements a year - so 100k between just those 100. Get these lot using Accrufer and maybe 25% could be switched to a better tablet - that's 25k prescriptions alone.
After 1 year and a slower than expected uptake he has told them it would take 2 years!!

Having said that we have no plan B so we do need him to stay.

Reading the RNS it states he has 0 shares - yet he had an option for 1m on 1/6/22 at 1.5p for remaining in his role for 1 year. When i enquired with IR if the RNS was incorrect they stated the options are vested, so he can 'buy' them whenever he wants. He has so far chosen not to do so. Read into that what you wish. I have never seen a BOD not taking up options that are less than 20% of the current price.

as a small business owner i can assure you i don't pay less for my electricity and i have no 6 month price cap. Prices have been increased immediately. Some businesses will be on fixed deals but when they run out the impact will be significant.

Re the price drop XPF need to give us a H1 update (30/6) as the % revenue increase is critical. Difficult to value it based on reported numbers

yep but the positive here is that it wasn't Paul Hill mentioning it, but the investment manager he was interviewing.
The fact that Mo has impressed him and has demonstrating how he is enhancing the business can only be a positive IMHO.

I'm hoping Sept to Dec will be a rich period of news for the company - decent H1 and hopefully YE guidance slightly above the £50m previous estimate, a few new contracts and finally CF getting one of the spin offs away.

yes, nice to see this slowly wake up after a large fall either side of a placing.

Whilst some may have sold out due to the actions of the BOD, ultimately the fundamentals are unchanged.
The business has been revamped and should be profitable in 2023 (year starting 1/7/22), there is clear revenue growth projections and areas such as GDM is a growing low risk, high margin business.
Covid still seems to be impacting live esports events, however, this seems to now be a smaller part of the business.

It is clear that Esports is a massive and growing area so GFIN is in a hot sector. Only last week it was on the national news as there is talk of it featuring in the commonwealth games.

Didn't see this coming after the positive trading update only a few weeks ago.
Nothing wrong with raising for expansion and ESG does seem to be a big growth area but it's pretty clear the market knew this was coming as the SP has been gradually falling over the last month or so. Retail investors the last to know as always.
Borrowings are a bit on the high side so improving the balance sheet is no bad thing. However, i find it difficult to value MJH based on their p/l etc. Always makes a healthy top line EBITDA yet is still loss making. These one off costs always seem quite high and never seem to disappear. Professional fees are very high IMHO.
Finally announcing a retail placing after hours and then closing it within 1 hour must have caught people out - the hoped for £1.5m raised £220k.

yes watched it yesterday, especially the Q&A.
Interesting that there is a financial penalty if the minimum order level isn't reached, however, from the body language it may not be massive.
Still waiting for the CFO to purchase shares!!

H1 trading update was quite positive. Revs at £2.5m was double this time last year and YE revenues of at least £5.5m (was £4m in 2021) seem a little conservative, assuming no covid impact.
Would have liked some mention of EBITDA/operating profit, however, based on full year it should be well above the £200k operating profit reported last year.
Either way based on say 1 x revenue or 10 X PBT (both very conservative) the current valuation looks very low.

I see Utility Team as a sensible bolt on as it increases the company's overall offering.
In terms of the payment - i believe c£9m was paid in cash the rest in shares at a price of 24p. The £9m was funded with a placing at 15p.
As the SP i half that today you could argue it was quite a good deal at the time.

i am not keen on RNS's that are released outside of trading hours, as was this one. So super CEO Greg gets millions of shares in 1 year and in 3 years just by remaining in his job. You couldn't make it up.
RNS also states he holds zero shares, however, previous options stated he got 1m on his 1st anniversary so June 2022. I will ask IR.
On another point AOP has not provided a TR1 despite massively increasing their holding on 5/8. I think changes to holding should be formally announced within 48 hours.

i can see a few dips as per last week as the 10% ers bank a profit but in between a steady rise over the next 7 or so weeks.
80p surely before FDA date. I think brokers etc are very conservative with success % having been burnt last time. For me it's over 90% now

I don't see it as an obsession, well not from me anyway, merely an indication from the CEO that he has confidence in the company. Jeremy is a successful businessman and is a well remunerated CEO. He has repeatedly stated in interviews how excited he is about POLB's prospects, yet thus far has kept his hands in his pockets despite the shares being 50% lower than when he arrived.
Recently he has claimed he will buy when allowed - this won't happen before the interims in Sept BTW - so let's see where we are at year end. Same applies for Mo at ORPH.
IMHO CF has so many shares that another BOD buying will have a greater impact than CF buying more.

agree sentiment is clearly very poor and cash maybe a concern.

Regarding your comment re make up and the cost of living it is actually one of the areas that performs very well when money is tight. People still want to slap it on to make them feel better etc. People stop/delay big purchases e.g. cars and holidays, and maybe go out less, but when they do they want to make the most of it. You also have the Instagram generation who need to show they are having a good time regardless - when was the last time you saw a selfie without make up??

yes this was c£1 just before the last FDA decision - despite it being less of a risk now i suspect we won't see this price, but 80p is definitely achievable. Assuming a positive FDA outcome maybe 120p??

Mo cannot buy until H1 results are announced - we are in a closed period. He has stated he will buy so let's see what happens in the next few months. If he hasn't bought any by Xmas i will be the first to criticise.
Today's contract is clearly another positive and appears to be with a new pharma. Mo has done well since his appointment - both in the contract sizes and increased cross selling to existing business partners.
I'm hoping H1 will be at the top end of estimates and at a minimum the £50m YE revenues are reiterated.
CF is quiet so hopefully something will happen with DIM and Prep too. The wait has been painful.

YE trading has just been announced and revenues continue to grow, which is to be expected as new bars start trading.
So revenue for the year is over £35m, with growth each quarter, and it says some weeks they do £1m so with a better xmas period revenues for 2023 should be c£50m (a 50% ish increase on these numbers). Impressive growth.
All looks good other than cash. At H1 (end of Dec 2021) net cash was over £3m but now it is £600k. Maybe they need to slow down new acquisitions and let the bars just operate and generate some cash and pay down some of the borrowings.

yes a decent update today, showing that things continue to be progressing well, however, this was never going to 'blow the doors off' as we had the previous update only a month or so ago.
They have managed to refurbish 19 bars, 28% of their estate, which is quite an aggressive rate. This must have been cash intensive so to still be net cash positive is good.
Last update did say the refurbished bars were performing particularly well so maybe that's why the number of the refurbs has been so high.
Good to see utility prices are fixed for next 9 months and also Christmas sales are already good - especially, as Proper says, after next to none over the last 2 years

Yes, the AOP action is interesting. As i said earlier they hold all the aces - they have direct access to STX management and surely asked for evidence of US take up levels before committing the additional money. Still a long road ahead but maybe there are a few green shoots.

Nice find. Unfortunately the vertical axis also shows how slow and difficult progress is - top rate is 750 items. When you go back a step and do the same graph with the main salt based alternative, ferrous fumarate, the level is consistently c400k per month. So Feraccru is currently c0.2% of the UK iron tablet market.

It won't be rolled out until Q4 2022 and as YE is 31/12 that doesn't leave much time for revenue in the financial year, hence market expectations are unchanged.
I see not being an exclusive deal as a positive. Lloyds has partnered with Satago, not taken it over, so it is in their interest to expand this to other companies - and as per the RNS there are many interested parties - see below.

Satago's platform gives the Bank a new digitised proposition with which to further support UK businesses. Satago will receive a recurring fee for each Bank customer which utilises its platform, plus one-off implementation fees. Satago expects the software platform to be made available to the Bank's customers during Q4 2022.

This landmark contract, coupled with its growing pipeline of commercial partners, ensures Satago is well positioned to roll out its best-in-class platform - benefiting thousands of Single Invoice Finance and Whole of Book Invoice Factoring customers - in the years ahead.

Have to agree Sam - if the current loan from an existing shareholder is secured against the IP then not sure if/how we can do another debt deal in the short term.
Today we have seen the start of the share dilution. So c 41m shares at c5.5p - a 19% dilution for just over £2m.
AOP now hold all the cards. They have been handsomely paid (£200k arrangement fee!!) and can convert the loan into shares at a 10% discount. Maybe with the 30% shareholding limit AOP can't go much higher, however, the other big shareholder, Inventages, who hold 56m or 26% of shares actually held c45% before the last placing which they didn't participate in.
This morning we had c216m shares. Now there are nearly 270m. I suspect there may be as many as 1bn by year end. On the positive STX could be a £500m company if the US takes off so that's c50p a share - still almost a 10 bagger