Member Info for shandypants2

Unfortunately TWD is not (yet) a profitable company - it will report a loss in 2021 when the delayed results are published in a few weeks. It has also just warned that revenues have slowed in 2022 so who knows what impact that will have on the bottom line.

Yes, amazing that STX spent over 18 months trying to get a commercial deal in the US yet no one seems to have heard of the company or the product.
I think CEO did say when he joined last year that awareness was low, however, if he had stated it was zero i would have probably bailed then and my losses would be a lot less. Lessons learnt etc

another positive interview but as it's paid for no awkward questions.

What happens at the end of 2022 when cash has run out?

When is STX scheduled to breakeven?

Is the current US revenue even covering the CEOs salary?

I suppose it's all in that initial point he made - when he joined STX the product had zero awareness in the US with medical practitioners. Therefore, the revenue growth would be pretty much zero for the first 6 to 12 months.

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/

Video is available here - i watched it this morning.

You will need to register if not already done so - just your email as username and a password.
When in put 'shield' in the search or just go to recent meetings.

now well over 40% below previous placing price. Those cheap warrants not looking so cheap now.

At £10 with c£3m cash this is valued at less than 1 x revenue.

Sorry, previous CEO left in April 2020 not 2022 - included in 2021 accounts for comparative purposes

yes a decent presentation and Greg continues to sound bullish. However, the reality is that the company has cash to take it to the end of 2022 only - the monthly cash burn is still c£1.5m and the revenue increase is frustratingly slow.

When you look at the accounts it makes you wonder if the BOD live in a parallel universe. I previously commented that STX paid high wages (previous CEO Carl Sterritt, also a founder of the company and a man who owned over 10m shares was paid over £500k each year in 2018 and 2019).
In the accounts just published failed CEO Tim Watts was paid £343k from Jan to Sept and this included a £83k bonus despite failing to deliver a US deal. New CEO is even better paid. Part time Chairman has seen a 24% increase in his salary to £120k and when previous CEO left in April 2022 as well as receiving £246k for less than 4 months work he also received £327k in lieu if notice.

All this when revenues were £1.5m.

Dave - thanks for your kind words. I hope you are surviving too.

Yesterday at 4.15pm i almost sold 50k at 11.8 as i thought today might be bad - a 80% loss. Was initially quite relieved with the update, but on reading the detail the cash burn is too great and the increase in prescriptions is not high enough.

A great product, but cash is king. Not sure if it's worth selling now!!!

At 5p if we were to raise £20m we'd issue 400m new shares. A 2/3rds dilution.

I still remember the 80% gain in 1 day in 2019 - luckily i did bank most of that profit. Nowhere near my losses now though.

Agree Dave. Initially i thought this was a decent update and expected the $10m loan to be well received. Then further on i read that this would only take us to the end of 2022 so a placing appears nailed on. It appears the market agrees.

I know we are starting from a really low base but to highlight the issue 3,900 prescriptions in Q1 is 1,300 a month.

5,000 a month at $250 would be $15m a year. 10,000 p.m would equate to $30m and this is breakeven/small profit we need.

If we increase by 100% each quarter that's 2,600 p.m by end of Q2, and over 5k by end of Q3 and potentially 10k by Q4. However, not all these will be full payers so the revenues will grow slower. Also the growth may slow as more people are prescribed.

So, in summary there is potential light at the end of the tunnel, however, the tunnel is still quite long!!!

Surely in 2021 the client who provided c 30% of revenues was the UK govt contract , as this was worth over £10m and was then extended.

I suspect they were given a priority and also margins weren't excessive as we were in the middle of a pandemic.

Revenue growth is great, however, cash continues to be a big issue. Just in H2, which was EBITDA positive, DVRG burnt through over £6m, and the £10m placing from June 2021 has now been spent.
No wonder expensive financing was recently agreed.
Having been a member of STC i think the pricing is potentially wrong. They seem to be keen on offering free or discounted 1st test in the hope that people will sign up for further tests every 3 months. However, the 1st test is the key - to understand your skin type and the products that may be of benefit. There is less incentive to re-do a test 3 months later, especially if you are paying full price, and how much can change in such a short period. I would be charging for the initial test and offering discounts for the follow on ones.
If this is the big growth area for DVRG then this should also be driving the revenue and profits.
When they say they have 20,000 members what does that mean? How many have renewed and how many have actually paid for their test.

as the IPO was at 500p it would appear many others felt that was good value only a couple of years ago. Sentiment has a lot of answer for, after all revenue growth has been consistently good over the last few years.

Pump - have you got the correct stock? Last placing was in May 2020 at 11p.

Also not sure what you mean about needing other companies to gain approval.

Other than that i agree 100% !!!

Revolution Bar Group announced good trading numbers this week and they also appeal to a young audience. City Pub Group are also trading well. It appears the likes of Wetherspoons which as an older customer base are the ones struggling.

There have been a couple of decent RNSs recently and an interview by CEO on V ox at the beginning of June. He seems quite confidence, but then again he always does. After the heavily discounted placing sentiment is clearly very low. As YE is only 2 weeks away it would be nice for a late June/early July RNS to state that revenue guidance has been met (CEO implied all was on target in interview). Also profitability for 2023 must be re-confirmed. Having said that GDM seems to have a lag between revenues being recognised so if these numbers are required it might delay this a little.
1p seems quite low now and already c20% below placing price.

Boom battle only had a couple of bars when it was acquired so doesn't appear to have much of a financial profile.

Both Boom and Escape have ambitious expansion plans and this will cost money. Yes there was a healthy £8m in the bank at YE (after a large placing). The initial leases and the store refits will not be cheap. Boom bars are quite large so the costs will be higher.
Manchester opening in Printworks this Friday - will pop in in the next few weeks. On paper this looks a good location. No axe throwing yet, which is a disappointment and the other games are all quite basic and not cheap. £30 for beer pong (although this does include a pitcher of beer)!!

PBT is always key but EBITDA provide some value, especially for companies that are investing in growth. I am always sceptical of it for companies with high borrowings (which OO doesn't) as the interest is clearly a key expense.
Depreciation is a non cash expense so a positive EBITDA should indicate a positive cashflow too.
However, again companies with a business model that has high depreciation e.g. a bar chain, EBITDA is less meaningful.
For 2021 OO had £38m in total expenses , c£2.5m was depreciation, predominantly linked to leases, is not a massive concern IMHO.
In the 2021 accounts just published EBITDA increased by c£9m. This has to be a positive

finesse - thanks for your patronising response and great 1st post on RBG. Yes i am well aware of EBITDA, however, RBG hasn't stated a YE PBT figure so i thought i'd use a very low PE based on the adjusted EBITDA figure they have provided.
As you're clearly so informed you would know that the H1 numbers showed a EBITDA of over £12m and a PBT of £4.3m. The adjusted EBITDA was £7.6m and actually that appears to include the c5m depreciation charge, hence the main difference between the 2 EBITDA figures .
To keep you happy let's use a PBT for YE at say c£5m and a PE of 10 and 15 - that gives us a valuation of £50 or £75m.
BTW you are aware that we've been in lockdown for large parts of the last 2 years. Perhaps that's had an impact on H2 performance during that period - just a guess. RNS this week clearly states "We are pleased to report continued strong performance across the Group, particularly from our refurbished bars". Hardly a sign of a company not trading profitably

Hallowed - much of the 2022 revenues will be based on 2021 agreed contracts and one of the delayed contracts in H2 2021 was undertaken in H1 2022. In late 2021 we were told over 90% of 2022 was already 'reserved' and since then there have been a number of new contracts with some 2022 revenues (although suspect these could be low, maybe 10 or 20% of contract size). Today's contract states it will start in June 2022 too.

We will get a clearer view when H1 is published in Sept, however, happy for you to post your calculations.

FinnCap seem to have quantified these extra contracts - for example the filed study one on 5/5 is down a £1m (much cheaper as no need for overnight stays etc).
Of the 44p FinnCap valuation they have a revenue multiplier of 4.4 (which in the current climate seems a bit high) giving 32p based on £50m for 2022, 9p for the spin offs and 2p for cash.

If we used a revenue multiplier of only 2 and spin off value of 5p (both very conservative) that gives a valuation of 22p (15p, 5p and 2p).
A revenue multiplier of 3 and using the FinnCap spin off value of 9p gives a SP of 33p.
So IMHO a valuation between 22p and 33p seems more realistic.

Today's contract shows that Mo continues to add value and his ability to cross sell to top pharmas is impressive. I think the £50m for 2022 is quite conservative but as there are strict rules as to when revenues can be recognised he is remaining conservative.
It's funny that loads criticise CF for over ramping this last year (some valid points IMHO, but also a certain amount of CEO enthusiasm that surely should have been taken as a pinch of salt) and now Mo provides a much more under stated updated the same people complain.