Member Info for shandypants2

muggins always the glass half empty post. DVRG in Jan 2021 projected £10m revenues and they are in that ballpark so no issues there. They are also EBITDA positive in H2 which is a big positive.

If 2022 revenue and profit targets are even only at 75% of the estimates this company is massively undervalued.

Yes, we would like further info on some of the products and potential contracts but these things take time and potentially there are NDAs in place.

A small company needs to be nimble - if it has 4 or 5 irons in the fire it needs to adjust if 1 or 2 take off quicker etc. DVRG seem to be doing exactly that. Yes we would like all 4 or 5 to rolled out and be profitable all at the same time, but business doesn't always work like that.

On the whole this is a positive RNS, but there is still work to do

2022 should be transformational year but the TP broker notes must be taken with care - there are bits that i suspect GB may have written for them - see below

Back on 11 January 2021 DeepVerge’s CEO, Gerry Brandon, stuck his neck well above
the parapet, providing investors with revenue guidance of £10m for the coming year. At
that time of course, just about nobody envisaged Pandemic conditions continuing beyond
the summer. The Group nevertheless secured orders comfortably excess of this target,
even if supply chain delays and COVID infected staff requiring isolation during Q4 2021
ultimately pushed some shipments and backlog of reagent supplies into Q1 2022.

DVRG to my knowledge has never split its revenue so it is difficult to see what products/divisions are creating the revenues, however, i have concerns with STC.

I have used it and i have also recently got my wife to sign up to it. The process was ok and the swab whilst a little fiddly with the 2 different solutions was ok. The report came through was very generic and lacked a bit of detail IMHO. A number of products were recommended which were quite difficult to find (i had to buy one via H&B online as the store no longer stock it). I am unsure if i'm meant to use all or can select from the list recommended (4 products were recommended for my morning routine).

My issue is that remaining a customer is one of diminishing returns. The first report is important and the products will hopefully work. Then after 3 months you re-swab and see if there is an improvement. The product list may be tweaked accordingly. However, surely no one can expect a big change after 3 months and any improvement will already be visible. Therefore, i am unclear why people will keep renewing once they've got their 1st and maybe 2nd report.

I would personally work on maybe an average of 1.5 reports a person and run the numbers based on that (although the pricing is either 1 or 3 swabs).

Perhaps in years to come the biggest earner will be the data that DVRG is compiling - must be worth a bit when we have maybe 100k samples

seems a solid update as we have almost been in semi lockdown for the last couple of months.
Regarding cash, yes looks fine. Was over £12m in Sept but we have spent c£3.6m on acquisitions since then plus upgrades to bars etc

At YE GDM generated £1.6m (although £1m of this was H1) and this was broken down as 10.7m active users generating 15.2p each.

Recently CEO has stated this is well over 17p and approaching 20p.
From the tweet we see that traffic is now 15.5m users in December.
For H1 maybe 15m at 17p = approx £1.25m.
Not sure if this includes Stock Informer which seems very high margin.
Certainly good progress though so all looking good

https://twitter.com/GfinityPLC/status/1479072965354528768

OAP - below is from H1 financial report.
It appears the study will be complete in late 2022 but the regulatory approval will be in 2023 and that is what triggers the payment. So i would add at least 6 months onto your expected timeframe, frustrating as it is. 2022 is all about US progress IMHO.

Feraccru® is not yet approved in China. The Chinese regulatory authority (CDE) has approved an Investigational New Drug (IND) application for Feraccru® which was submitted by our Chinese licence partner, ASK Pharm, to conduct two studies which CDE has confirmed are sufficient to support a New Drug Application: a 12-week Phase III study in 120 Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) patients and a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic study to be conducted in parallel. Clinical supplies have been manufactured and released for the study, and ASK Pharm has started screening patients. The study could be completed by the end of 2022 and marketing approval and product launch could follow by late 2023. On approval, Shield is due to receive an $11.4 million milestone payment from ASK Pharm and tiered royalties of 10% or 15% depending on the level of net sales, and up to US$40 million in milestone payments upon the achievement of specified cumulative sales targets. ASK Pharm will be responsible for all clinical and regulatory costs and activities as well as all manufacturing and distribution costs of goods sold in the territory.

yes, suspect it is people taking a quick 15% profit. Once the placing has settled down hopefully 2022 should be a good year - once the delayed contract starts generating revenues (Q1 2022, so anytime now) we should see a better SP

IDP has just purchased the remaining 4% of ST for £520k so that equates to £13m for the whole of ST. When ST was initially purchased it was the 80% owned by the founders, the other 20% was held by the 2 dragons who originally invested via Dragons Den.
These guys are not stupid. If they are prepared to sell now for the price agreed then £13m seems fair value. Only last year CRL tried to buy the whole of IDP for a low ball 44p per share offer when there were less than 15m shares in issue (so c£7m). It might, and hopefully will, be worth more in the future but the 3 x revenues that St Tropez achieved when PZ Cussons purchased it a few years ago won't be repeated in these covid conditions.

you've jumped the gun a little - it is not yet approved in China, Korea and Canada yet. The former requires an additional study as the initial ones had limited ethnic minority participation.
Hopefully this will be a formality but it will take a year or so to complete. As for Canada hopefully as this is FDA approved the same data can be re-used.

Today's deal is a nice surprise although i'm a little disappointed with both the upfront payment and the milestones. Was hoping they would be a little higher as Canada has a population of over 38m. As previously mentioned Japan is still the biggie left - 125m population and anaemia is a serious issue.

yes, hopefully this will get back above £1 quite soon.
Surprised this didn't get mentioned in 2022 share tips as it is a great little company making money and paying a decent dividend. PE is very low, especially as YE figures will be above expectations as per recent RNS.

and the other point re Feb update is that our YE is 30/6 so we will already be over 7 months into the period. Those who say SP is quite high based on current revenues make a good point but we are now1/2 way through the next year when revenues are due to increase to over £9m a c80% increase.

yep, i saw that too Sam and reckon that could be the main reason for the recent price rise - much appreciated as it is.

Definitely think we are in a much better position now than this time last year, however, there is still execution risk.
Having said that current valuation is still only c£100m so the upside is massive.

Hopefully 2022 will be the year that accrufer takes off in the US

i think CEO said in a recent interview that GDM rev per customer was 17p with target this year to 20p and users as stated is now over 15m.
Based on this H1 GDM rev should be c£1.3m, hopefully nearer £1.5m (YE total was £1.6m last year) . If stock informer is separate then that's also c£5k rev a day based on CEO comment that it has £2k days and £15k days and this has a 80% profit margin.
All seems to be moving in the right direction

it is amazing that despite the new contract dropping a few days before xmas, only a week after a huge £10m one, and making it 4 contracts in the last 5 weeks the derampers are still out in force.

The core business is in rude health.

The spin off delays have been frustrating and it appears DIM will be delayed even further. However, they will come in time and i think only Immutex is currently valued on the balance sheet so they will be a nice bonus.

I am looking forward to 2022. Good luck all LTH

Gross profit is only one indicator - currently IDP spend c40% of revenue on marketing and has done for a number of years. So despite having c1m followers on facebook, instagram etc it seems this expenditure has not dropped.
So for example if IDP made £15m rev p.a (a 50% uplift) that would be a healthy £9m gross profit. Yet if marketing was still at 40% then that's £6m cost so that leaves only £3m to cover wages and admin, which are currently c£3.5m.
Since the new BOD came in the marketing i receive has barely changed and i was being offered £10 deals for black friday, as i have been for the last 3 years.

If IDP get on top of the marketing spend and you could be right. Let's see how H1 looks - last year H1 was a disaster so it should not be hard to improve on that.

Great post BeC.

In terms of 2022 revenues when these contracts are signed c20% is paid upfront as a deposit (note, not the same as revenue - as most of this will be recognised later when contract milestones are met) so whilst nothing is guaranteed in life the chance of a company pulling out is vastly reduced.

Also we still have the UK govt money for at least 2 further covid studies. This money is not refundable so i can see why CF is so confident that these will land in 2022.

Finally you haven't even mentioned the spin offs - IMHO Prep maybe 3p a share, Immutex min of 5p and DIM who knows maybe 7p (£50m valuation) , so that's 15p alone.

2022 should be a good year.

i think it's a big positive - would top up but the spread is ridiculous ATM - actual is c 1.2 to 1.5p, quoted is 1.1 to 1.6.

Great news. Below is the bit i particularly liked - and why the CS business can be considered a moat.

hVIVO has been studying influenza for over 20 years and conducting influenza human challenge studies with its flu disease models for more than 15 years. hVIVO has conducted numerous flu challenge studies for a range of industry, governmental and academic clients, making its models the most well-used commercial flu disease models available on the market. hVIVO also has expertise in safely conducting challenge studies across a range of respiratory viruses, including various strains of Influenza, Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) and human Rhinovirus HRV (common cold virus), malaria, and asthma. In October 2020, this expanded to include the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

GP - you do realise IDP made a net loss don't you?

Improving gross profit is encouraging however if marketing costs and wages/admin are too high then it is irrelevant.

H1 is usually a high cost period for IDP - let's see how the H1 numbers look in Jan/Feb before any evidence of a turn around can be justified.

Reggie - don't worry about me. AIM has been difficult these last 6 months, but clearly it is not down 50% as is TGR.

I am tempted to do a cheeky top up, however, if i wait a little could i get in even lower?

When CEO states fully funded to x always take this with caution. TWD did a big raise at 200p not too long ago and yet only this week did another at 80p. ECR were fully funded for whole of 2021 according to the then CEO in early 2021 yet 2 months later did a raise . These things happen.