Member Info for rogthegamer

Garry. Welcome to what has become a ‘madhouse’ where we speculate with regards to the prospects of GKP.

Believe me nothing here is simple, or as you say “simply a case of Turkey getting the pipeline open again.” When I purchased my comparatively large interest in GKP the pipeline had just been closed and that was my own line of thinking.

Sadly I didn’t know that local politicians behave in the interests of their own agendas above those of the people that they are supposed to represent. At one point I foolishly believed that all of the various factions in Iraq had reached a pragmatic agreement and it would simply be a matter of waiting for the results of the Turkish election to be decided, but that was before Islamists on a finance committee decided that their hatred for the Kurds outweighs the interests of their own blind followers.

If you can afford the potential of a loss enjoy the ride as I do with banter like this here and the probability is that the love of money, as always, will prevail. The oil is far too valuable to be left in the ground.

Confused? I am.

Confused? Yes as predicted.

All of those technical points are no doubt valid but looking at this from my simple minded prospective I can only see the positive fact that Iraq have signed contracts with the major international oil traders that will sell Kurdish oil, when Turkey agrees to open the pipe, no doubt the same oil traders that gave Kurdistan huge sums of money secured on future oil sales that were lost when the pipeline was closed. I can therefore assume that they have been given assurances regarding those lost payments , payments that can only be made when GKP etc produce oil that they will also expect to be paid for.

Confused? If not you will be after the next episode.

****eye yes there’s no doubt that political interests are involved, and there are complex east / west issues where haltered, ideology, stupidity and religious fanaticism are a factor. however, money is very powerful and pragmatism will probably prevail and the oil will flow.

also we are at a critical junction regarding the balance of power in the world and turkey is positioned in the middle of a volatile region, as is iraq, but leaning towards russia more and more carries great risk for the leaders of nations that do hate the values and past behaviour of the west and given the chance would murder us all. what will they do if russia fails in the ukraine or putin is toppled, be that likely or not erdogan would have considered the possibility as have china.

Terry I have an idea and as you are clearly experienced in this matter I wonder if you will kindly offer me some advice with the benefit of you knowledge.

I have identified a company that operates in a high risk / reward area and their shares are currently trading at a historically low price. I do not hold any shares in this myself as I’m a bit of a ‘wimp’ but my concern is for all of those naive people that do hold the shares and, like you, I have such a good heart I really do need to tell them that they should sell their shares, especially if they do increase in price from the current low as you recommend so often with GKP.

As fellow wimps too frightened to take risks in life we should stick together in the hope that those bold adults that do take calculated chances make money, that would really hurt us.

While today’s RNS was not positively received by the market it didn’t mention anything new or negative that was unknown on this forum. On the contrary it confirms the agreement between Baghdad and the KRG and it doesn’t mention any concern regarding new contractual issues with SOMO, which leads me to believe that they will immediately pump oil as soon as they are allowed to do so in the confidence that payments will follow. Indeed they are clearly expecting that the KRG should pay the arrears.

The ball is in Turkey’s court and they will do all that they can do to avoid paying a billion plus fine to Iraq for transporting oil on behalf of Kurdistan, so would I. However, in the long term a dispute between Turkey and Iraq will not be in Turkey’s best interests, on the contrary both sides will benefit from a speedy agreement following the election on Sunday.

This being so I for one remain confident that the resolution of what i will most probably look back upon in the not too distant future as a relatively short dispute, was positive in the long term with regards to the risk of investments in GKP, most especially if, as it now seems it will, Iraq becomes * relatively stable. ( * relative to an extremely troubled past )

The current 300 million market valuation of GKP by comparison with the huge proven potential of the assets is clearly taking account of the possibility that no agreement will be forthcoming, but personally I can’t see any long term reason why that worst case scenario will happen. Under those circumstances the shares are at today’s price a reasonable / good buying opportunity, and I would certainly buy more myself if I hadn’t already purchased as many as I can afford to write off and move on to another opportunity without regret.

Swell 2316 ‘Turkey’s net forex reserves hit 21 year low of 2.3 billion “. Reuters May 19th “ gross reserves plunged 9 billion to 105 billion .”

Bugsy911. While corruption is an obvious factor it’s small scale by comparison with the billions generated in Iraq and large but smaller amounts lost in Kurdistan. The negotiations have been complex with many different agendas to be satisfied not least Kurdish debts, most due to international oil traders and of course some to GKP etc. Past rivalries and bad feelings plus the various shares of the Iraq budget and the two Kurdish factions that are reluctantly resolving their differences. Turkey seems to be holding out and with total foreign currency reserves of c. 2+ billion a 1 billion + fine is not affordable. The latest delay might be related to their election and I’m assuming no change there. On the plus side Turkey’s single strong card, the pipeline, can’t be played indefinitely as Iraq holds a better hand, 20 billion imports and the oil that Turkey can’t rely on Russia to supply at a discount in the event of Putin’s defeat.

In short most of us here have placed our bets, some in the naive belief that a 30% yield was risk free or sustainable. All-that we can now do is hold on in the beliefhat common sense will prevail, (many here with increasing impatience. ) That or cut our losses and put the renaming money in the post office etc. @ 3%. or low risk ( boring ) large life insurance company shares @ c. 8% . Where dividends are sustainable. ( L&G / Aviva for instance. )

Arm. Erdogan seems to be playing one side against the other without committing 100% either way, and why would he fully support Putin as he might like to alongside other dictators? He’d risk backing the losing side, same China.

Iraq seem to be entering a period of relatively stable government ( stable by comparison with past turmoil ) and the people including Kurds will see the benefit, they are of course balanced between U.S. western influence and Iranian lunacy.

On the plus side by far the largest recent investment into their oil / gas sector has been French and Iraq have just announced a new round of oil / gas licensing opportunities. My guess is and has always been that the Kurdish oil flow will resume and I do believe that the last cogs in complex negotiations are near to resolution. That said politicians in the region do have a history that doesn’t often match common sense or the best interests of their own populations.

GKP and the region in general are a gamble, not one for the weakest investors or those that stupidly put their shirt on the outcome. In short Arm. be patient and time will tell here, or if instant results are required stop speculating here and try a casino.

A 3 day Iraq / Turkey high level trade summit started in Kurdistan today (21st) Apparently more than 1400 Turkish companies are registered in Kurdistan and Iraq is 2nd only to Germany in terms of Turkey’s annual exports, increasing from 11 billion dollars in 2021 to an estimated 20 billion this year.

Read into that what you will but I don’t suppose Turkey’s next president will risk to much in an attempt to reduce or avoid paying a fine for transporting oil on behalf of Kurdistan before Iraq won its court case and gained the current upper hand in negotiations.

Can only hope that the Turkish delegation make a goodwill announcement before the summit ends on Tuesday, although I won’t hold my breath.

I must admit that I’m beginning to find this repetitive pipeline ‘soap opera’ tedious. Our shares have been in limbo bouncing around the same low price area while politicians are no doubt arguing about money, now it’s the Turks turn. In the meantime we’re all losing money, none more so than the ordinary population of Iraq and Kurdistan.

Fortunately the only long term way that any money will be made by those that will benefit the most, ( those in positions of power on all sides,) is by selling oil, therefore in the grand scheme of things a couple of months with no production isn’t that much, it just feels like that while we wait and endlessly speculate.

Invstrat 15 Years !

When I said this situation is about when it will be resolved and not if. I didn’t think that I would need to check my life expectancy.

PUTUP Yes the outcome is speculation re. the terms of a contract and the oil price when the pipeline opens, until then GKP can’t issue a clear RNS. However, as I for one have accepted the probability that all is now agreed on the Iraq side it stands to reason that the company have been offered the terms of a contract and that could become a useful update in terms of support ing the share price. As for the future price of the shares, IF they produce 55k + at a price similar to last year’s average, when production was lower, then I’d expect 230 ish. IF the reduction of risk related to a settlement of the Iraq / Kurdistan dispute is factored in the price should be higher, especially IF the stronger possibility of a bid is added. IF is why the shares are the price that they are.

GG Hesitation while you wait in hope of a lower price indicates a cautious nature, that being so a high risk GKP punt might not be your best option. Personally I’d buy at this price, or I would if I hadn’t already bought at a slightly higher price as many shares as I can afford right off as a total loss in terms of my happy marriage.

Trying to find the bottom will risk missing the increase that you yourself predict. Shares go down for a reason and if this one does the risk remains or increases and you will still be wondering where the bottom might be. Yes the pipeline will open and it does appear that the ball is in Turkey’s court. Looks like Erdogan will win and he’ll negotiate a deal shortly thereafter. On the plus side if Turkey is the last remaining hurdle as we’ve been led to believe this presupposes that the oil companies have already been or will be given immediate contracts with SOMO. Why would they pump oil for free? That said it would have been helpful if they issued an RNS confirmation regarding the contract situation which they must have been informed about.

In short patience required and as I said you are risking a sudden move up in an attempt to find the bottom.

If the prospects are good enough and you can risk a loss why wait.

The oils there, the pipe’s there, the port’s there. It seems that Iraq and Kurdistan have reached an agreement. The oil companies will accept or have accepted SOMO terms. The Turkish government’s agreement seems to be the last cog in the wheel, in due course it will be in Turkey’s best interests to be supplied with oil from Iraq and Kurdistan for domestic use and export via their port, as it’s a win win situation for all and the only logical outcome will be oil flowing. ( RNS I hope )

Politics however are a different matter, and the outcome of Turkey’s election has yet to be decided, and of course Iranian influence in Iraq and common sense logic are not one and the same thing.

In short all that we can do is wait. In the meantime I for one am finding the situation / speculation / debate interesting, and i do enjoy the excitement of high risk positions by comparison with boring safe long term investments. ( plus I’ll treat my family when this situation is resolved as it most certainly will be.

Have a nice relaxing weekend and Monday will no doubt be another day for debate.

Terry the pessimist

To say that KRG “won’t be exporting again “ is foolish. At some point in the near future the oil will flow as before, it’s not a question of if it’s when and upon whist terms. This is not excitement it’s an unfolding situation that I for one finds to be as interesting as it will hopefully be profitable.

If of course you do not hold the shares your views and comments are a waste of your own time.

Rudaw latest - KRG not certain re. Pipe open date. Depends on Turkey

Iraq oil minister reported contracts with oil companies now “ours “ the same as before but with SOMO price.

Confused? You will be until we have the RNS

When the fact is announced, an RNS that says new contracts signed and hopefully pipe opened Saturday the price will reflect that, (170 ish, moving up thereafter on production oil price etc. ) and good news or not traders might sell @170. If on the other hand Turkey play hardball re. Fine. Or bad fact RNS no contact etc and the price drops to £1, as a trader I’ll take my medicine cut my losses and sell. I can’t win them all but historically I do win more than I lose.

Sit back and gave a nice weekend because I have a feeling that we are on the right track here.