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Patience Rewarded ! Two words that I’ve been looking forward to writing for far too long. That said, this is only the first stage of the recovery and the oil flow has yet to be guaranteed.

Well done to those that stuck with what always seemed to be a logical outcome and have recommend GKP as a buy while the pessimists and doom mongers on this forum had far too much to say.

The Iraq Oil report 30 /9 /23. Iraq are taking enforcement measures regarding the international court judgment by claiming 601 million dollars, which they believe signals that no diplomatic solutions have been found despite recent discussions. We can only hope that Turkey will see this as a reason to do a deal and not as a reason to argue and delay in an American court.

In the meantime GKPs only option should be to ramp up production and sell as much as possible for the best price achievable.

Patience still required.

Blumagnet. Stock markets have a long history of over and under valuing shares, that’s how money is made and of course one person’s gain is another’s lose. In this case GKP ‘could be’ massively undervalued and those that are selling at this time ‘might be’ making a mistake. On the other hand the sellers ‘could’ be right and we ‘might’ be wrong.

Could it be that we never have the pipeline opening announcement that has for so long been at the top of our wish list. Instead all sides might now agree to the ‘test’ and that flow continues while a face saving agreement is gradually put into place, perhaps with the first sales receipts being used to the oil the palms of those that might need to be ‘ brought on side.’

That or will patience still be required while we continue local sales indefinitely?

The mood on this forum is certainly positive and it does seem that ‘there’s no smoke without fire’ as the share price is moving in the right direction.

As for the here and now disregarding the obvious potential. Please forgive my maths but 36 % of 33k barrels per day @ 30 dollars = about 10 million per month less 6 million basic costs = a profit of about 50 million per year. Forget the potential and by comparison with a market capitalisation @ 110 of 250 million the shares are a bargain on that alone, never mind the potential.

A little patience still required

theoryman. fine in theory but when it comes to common sense and logic middle eastern politicians become mired in a sea of self interest, religious lunacy and ****** / tribal agendas. that said at the end of the day money rules the world and it does seem that a pragmatic face saving solution is close. in the meantime, and as most sensible people on this forum seem to believe, gkp can survive and even return to small profits.

patience still required

Something seems to be happening behind the scenes. Are we close at long last?

Arm. Russia can’t give Crimea security guarantees on their own doorstep, as for China they are reliant upon western sales of consumer products to keep their own people in employment.

The current situation is ( 95% ) temporary, the pipeline will open eventually. In that case the probability is that GKP will operate legally in the eyes of Iraq in addition to Kurdistan, that therefore removes one of the previous major risk factors present when the shares were trading @£3 + on about 45k barrels per day oil price 90+

When taking account of GKPs ability to increase production to 80k barrels and the proven potential to progress towards 100 +, not to mention gas reserves that Iraq are now desperately seeking, the shares should trade far higher than previous highs , especially if past receivables if 100 million + are paid as they previously were. Great and I for one will benefit, sadly greed will come into play long before the full value of this company will be fully rewarded at our level because our largest shareholders will sell in exchange for short term gain when the first large oil company comes in with an offer of around £4.

Patience still required and too many false dawns previously, so I’m not celebrating just yet, although the shares are moving in the right direction, unless you’re a short, which I’m not, far from it.

Armasmaximilian. I for one read post here in part to debate issues related to GKP, but for the most part to gather useful information from those that discover or know something that I don’t. While I do read your fanciful posts regarding stupid trading activities this is not the place to air your idiotic politics.

Agreed they should provide a sales update, unless of course the situation hasn’t changed in terms of quantity and price. Especially as on the last occasion when the share price fell into the eighties a full RNS followed.

P.S. just noticed a Rudaw report, high level talks in Bagdad re. Budget allocation, it seems that Kurdistan is being starved of funds, can only hope that the loss of a billion dollars or so per month in oil revenue will be taken into account, or does that require common sense?

Patience still required

All very good Flying Horse. BUT, isn’t that the route of our problem, ie Iraq won an international court judgement against Turkey so Turkey closed the pipeline ( as we are ALL only far too aware. )

That said, it is a pipeline dispute based upon a legal agreement and Iraq would lack the power to stop Kurdistan, legally or forcefully, from exporting oil Via Turkey by truck. Although Turkey might value their relationship with Iraq more than they do Kurdistan.

Numerous reports state that the Iraq federal government are not sending the KRG adequate funds. Could it be Iranian influence attempting to starve the Kurds of an ability to finance the large ( 300k strong ) Peshmerga? Was Erdogan right in saying that the pipeline closure is still a dispute between Baghdad and the KRG? Could a conflict occur that would be in no one’s best interests apart from Putin’s etc.

On the plus side could the prospect of a military dispute focus powerful minds on a resolution, ( the U.S. for instance) and in the meantime with the KRG desperate for every dollar will they fully support discounted oil trucking that allows the IOC’s some profit? We shall see, but this is certainly not a share for the faint hearted.

Patience Required

Arm. Speak for yourself. I can assure you that “we “ are not all “fools” sitting here on a 50% loss, and some that have lost still have the patience / strength to ride the storm. Personally I regarded and still regard the present price as being an opportunity in part created by those that have pancaked and sold at a price that does not reflect the long term value. We shall see, but unlike you I won’t cry in pubic if this dies go “belly up” It’s called a calculated risk that should only be taken by adults.

Hopefully when your mate Putin gets what he deserves and tin pot dictators in Syria, Iran, North Korea etc lose their despotic friend the World will be a far better place. In the meantime thank your lucky stars that you are not Iranian etc.

Erdogan announced the finance agreement for a 550 million investment in a Ceyhan petrochemical plant; Reuters. Long term but I wonder where the oil required will mostly come from.

Patience Required

Arm. “Scum” didn’t take 600k off of you. Stock market investments carry different levels of risk and sensible adults choose the level OF RISK that they are prepared to take. Now a free of charge lesson for you; if I had a total of £1k to invest today there will little point to putting that into legal and general at the near 9% yield available even though it carries little or no risk of long term loss. The income will only be £90 per year taxable with half of that lost to inflation, plus I’d expect 20 /30% capital growth over 2/3 years if the economy stabilised, just £2/3 hundred pounds. Hardly life changing. No I’d put my £1k into GKP and there is a good chance that 6 months on it will more than double and potentially grow 5 fold over a couple of years including a return to high dividends. As for the risk, well a £1k lose will not be the end of my world and I won’t accuse anybody of being “scum,”

Now the exact opposite is true if like you I had £600 k today. Put that in legal and general at 9 % and I’d have about £50k per year income and the prospect of £100k or so capital growth over a couple of years, all at negligible risk. If on the other hand I was so stupid as to put that £600k into GKP , and as like you I’m not worth a billion, it would be the end of my World. Even then I would have no right to accuse anyone of being “scum” as the result of my own adult choice. In other words Arm stop winging here and get a life. Free lesson over any further advice is available @ £300. Per HOUR.

Clearly we are in this current situation ( pipeline closure) for longer than I for one and no doubt many had imagined, the Erdogan visit would have been a signal that negotiations that are ongoing had achieved a compromise that is acceptable. On the plus side local sales do seem to be covering basic costs and as GKP is a low cost producer in times when the oil price is high they do have the potential to add a small profit that can increase in the event that this sales outlet becomes the norm. Personally I can’t see a situation where Baghdad would push Kurdistan hard enough to prevent trucked local sales / corrupt exports, and it does seem that the lack of timely budget payments to Kurdistan are starting to hurt, hopefully this will force a resolution before it becomes a military conflict, and that could be the end of GKP. On balance I still believe that @90p this is a buying opportunity, but not so much that I will add to my own long position.

Patience Required

Straycat

While I did say that ‘we’ ( we being the relatively small investors ) must be patient, or sell and move on, I wasn’t referring to the patience of the management at GKP. They of course must explore all means possible to sell as much oil as they possibly can for the best possible price in the expectation that the pipeline closure will no longer be, as they said, “temporary”

Dare I hope that the sale of up to 50k barrels per day of low cost of production oil can be sold at a discounted price that does allow for GKP to make a small profit and a reasonable dividend return, 8 pence ( 2x4 ) should sustain a share price that is low in terms of future potential, 140 /60 or so, but high by comparison with today’s price. I for one will sit on that, albeit not for too long as I’m not young enough and I am looking forward to a winter in the Sun. ( Far East not Middle East )

According to the Iraq Oil Report on Sept 7 Turkey filed a claim against Iraq in the U.S. seeking 957 million relating to the March Paris ruling.

This indicates a lack of agreement Re. the pipeline closure which is no doubt being used as a bargaining tool. While agreements that are in the best interests of both parties will be reached in time, time is passing and there now seems to be no alternative for GKP other than to make the best of the circumstances. In my humble opinion GKP should work on the assumption that the closure is semi permanent and no longer “temporary” in which case they must explore all avenues with regards to selling their maximum level of production possible without further capital expenditure. Selling in any way that they can at the best price obtainable on the best terms that the KRG will agree.

While a solution longer term might be an alternative pipeline I doubt that the Kurds would tolerate the control that Baghdad would have if that direction became their only route of exports / income. Therefore Turkey have the upper hand over the JRG but not Iraq, , in the meantime can we dare to imagine that trucking up to 50k barrels of cut price oil per day might provide a profit that justifies a reasonable dividend that supports the share price while we wait. If so I for one will happily sit on my shares as a long term investment. I

In short Patience isn’t simply required it’s the only option apart from selling, taking a lose and moving on.